VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #1561/01 3090941
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 040941Z NOV 08
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0261
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8700
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0147

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001561 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, CROSS-STRAIT 
RELATIONS, AND U.S. ARMS SALES TO TAIWAN 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese and English-language dailies 
continued to give significant news coverage November 4 to the 
historic meeting between Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) 
Chairman P.K. Chiang and China's Association for Relations across 
the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) Chairman Chen Yunlin in Taipei Monday; and 
to the agreements that will be signed between SEF and ARATS Tuesday, 
as well as the various demonstrations staged by the DPP.  The 
pro-unification "United Daily News" ran a banner headline on page 
six reading "The United States:  Exchange of Visits by 
Ministerial-Level Economic and Trade Officials between the United 
States and Taiwan to Be Resumed." 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a column in the 
centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" discussed the U.S. presidential 
election and possible U.S.-China trade and economic conflicts that 
the newly elected U.S. president will confront.  An op-ed piece in 
the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times," written by 
former AIT chairman Nat Bellocchi, now a special adviser to the 
Liberty Times Group, said it will take some time after the new U.S. 
president is elected before Taiwan can tell whether there will be 
changes in U.S.-Taiwan relations.  With regard to the cross-Strait 
relations, an editorial in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" 
lambasted the Ma Ying-jeou Administration's handling of the 
SEF-ARATS talks as "disparaging Taiwan's national dignity, 
abandoning Taiwan's sovereignty" and thus "humiliating the Taiwan 
people."  An editorial in the pro-independence, English-language 
"Taiwan News" alleged that both Chen's Taiwan visit and China's 
approval of Taiwan former Vice President Lien Chan's participation 
in the APEC summit were the KMT Administration and the Chinese 
government's plot to form an alliance, which will harm Taiwan and 
eventually all of Asia.  An editorial in the conservative, 
pro-unification, English-language "China Post," however, said this 
week's talks "will mark a significant step forward in cross-Strait 
relations."  A separate "Taipei Times" op-ed piece, written by U.S. 
scholar Robert Sutter, discussed the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and 
concluded that "conceivable options for the US to provide advanced 
fighters to Taiwan seem very limited."  End summary. 
 
¶3. U.S. Presidential Election 
 
A) "Obama and U.S.-China Economic and Trade Conflicts" 
 
Deputy Editor-in-Chief Kuo Chen-lung wrote in the "International 
Column" in the centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" [circulation: 
220,000] (11/4): 
 
"... As it stands now, no matter whether it is John McCain or Barack 
Obama that is elected, there seems to be little difference in their 
Asia-Pacific policies.  The security issues have become less 
important now, while economic and trade issues are very hot.  Over 
the past ten years, the fuels that could ignite security [problems] 
in the Asia-Pacific region have been defused one by one:  the Korean 
Peninsula issue has been gradually put under control through joint 
cooperation between the United States and China.  As for the Taiwan 
issue, which was originally the one that would most likely trigger 
clashes [in the region], both Washington and Beijing struck a 
consensus in dealing with it during Chen Shui-bian's term.  Since Ma 
Ying-jeou came to power, cross-Strait relations have embarked on 
stable development, so the new U.S. president can leap over the 
previously controversial Taiwan issue. 
 
"No matter who is elected, the new U.S. president, [when mapping out 
his] Asia-Pacific strategy, will have to face the rise of China and 
develop the [United States'] strategic industry for the next stage 
so as to outrun the other competitors in the Asia-Pacific region. 
Moreover, he will have to strive for the cooperation of other 
Asia-Pacific partners in order to get out of the financial storm and 
economic recession. ...  For the new U.S. president, China failed to 
perform its duty when its economic and trade strength was on the 
rise, and it has even threatened the United States, whether by 
deliberately devaluing the Renminbi, 'stealing' Americans' jobs, or 
ordering its sovereignty wealth funds wantonly to purchase U.S. 
strategic assets.  Even in the face of global warming and financial 
meltdown, China has failed to make contributions as it was supposed 
to.  For the new U.S. president, one of his measures will be to 
'navigate China's rise' by integrating the country into the global 
regulatory system and encouraging it to obey rules that were set by 
the United States and other Western countries. 
 
"Next, [the new U.S. president] must speed up in signing free trade 
agreements [FTAs] with Asia-Pacific nations, in particular, the 
Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, which will soon be 
won over by China via the 'ASEAN plus one.'  The countries with 
which the Bush Administration has completed signing [FTAs], such as 
Singapore, Australia, and South Korea, are all key Asia-Pacific 
allies that [Washington] can use to counterbalance China's 
increasingly growing influence.  Among these countries, Japan is the 
most important.  Following the trade clashes between the United 
 
States and Japan at the end of the last century, the bilateral trade 
relations have been in a state of serenity.  But it also shows that 
American businesses have lost their interest in the Japanese market 
and have begun to turn to China and other Asia-Pacific countries, 
where they see more profit.  But for the United States, Japan 
remains a pillar of stability in the Asia-Pacific area, which the 
new U.S. president must not give up. ..." 
 
B) "Only Time Will Tell on US Support for Taiwan" 
 
Nat Bellocchi, former AIT chairman and now a special adviser to the 
Liberty Times Group, opined in the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] (11/4): 
 
"... During the upcoming months, Taiwanese will also continue to 
focus their attention on the economy and on the efforts of the new 
president to change their relationship with China. Any changes in 
the US-Taiwan relationship, however, will not take place soon. ... 
In the last two or three weeks, many have been discussing the 
possibility of a cross-strait annexation of Taiwan by China as long 
as there is no war in the Taiwan Strait. Others have talked about a 
possible 'confederation' between China and Taiwan. Many others press 
for an independent Taiwan, no matter how long it takes. Others talk 
about the need for the continuation of strong relations with the US 
and other East Asian countries, especially Japan.  All of this will 
continue up to and beyond the inauguration of the new US government 
in January. Given the time it takes to engage in cross-strait talks, 
not too much change will have taken place and all of us will have to 
wait and see how cross-strait talks develop - and how the US handles 
it." 
 
¶4. Cross-Strait Relations 
 
A) "Ma Ying-jeou Self-Disparages [Taiwan's] National Dignity; 
Abandons Its Sovereignty; and Humiliates the Taiwan People" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 720,000] 
editorialized (11/4): 
 
"... [Taiwan's President] Ma Ying-jeou self-disparaged [Taiwan's] 
national dignity and abandoned [Taiwan's] sovereignty.  Ma used the 
excuse that [Chinese President] Hu Jintao received [Taiwan's Straits 
Exchange Foundation Chairman] P. K. Chiang [in Beijing in June 2008] 
to justify his meeting with [China's Association for Relations 
across the Taiwan Strait Chairmen] Chen Yunlin, regardless of 
whatever title by which [Ma] will be addressed.  Ma even lied that 
such a manner would be 'based on an equal footing.'  Didn't Ma know 
that the disagreement between both sides of the Taiwan Strait 
nowadays lies in the fact that the other side does not recognize the 
Republic of China?  On the other hand, Taiwan has already recognized 
the existence of the People's Republic of China.  Therefore, the 
issue of disparagement did not exist when the other side met with 
Chiang.  For our side's meeting with Chen, on the contrary, we have 
to remove our national flags, and remove [Ma's official title of] 
President.  There are fundamental differences in the prerequisites. 
Does Ma really have to meet with Chen?  Can it be that the national 
flags are only internal governance tools to differentiate 
dissidents, while one feels inferior [with our own national flags] 
when facing the motherland on the other side?  It must be a 
premeditated move rather than ignorance to invite such guests 
collectively to humiliate the Taiwan people. ..." 
 
B) "Lien's APEC Nod Is Taiwan's Trap" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 
20,000] editorialized (11/4): 
 
"Combined with the current visit to Taiwan by People's Republic of 
China envoy Chen Yunlin, the appointment of Chinese Nationalist 
party (Kuomintang) honorary chairman Lien Chan as President Ma 
Ying-jeou's representative to the informal leaders meeting of the 
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Lima, Peru late next 
month signifies the KMT government's acquiescence to Beijing's 
suzerainty over Taiwan. ... 
 
"Far from being a breakthrough, Lien's appointment marks less an 
upgrade in Taiwan's international status but an award to the former 
KMT chairman for his services to the Chinese Communist Party and the 
common KMT-CCP cause of suppressing democracy and 'preventing 
independence' in Taiwan. ...  The combination of Chen Yunlin's visit 
to Taiwan and Lien's appointment to the APEC meeting does not 
signify a genuine peace between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait 
but the cementing of an alliance between the two authoritarian 
parties of the Chinese Nationalist Party and the Chinese Communist 
Party that will be inimical to both Taiwan's independence and 
democracy, the future development of democracy in China and Hong 
Kong and Macau and indeed, Asia in general. ..." 
 
C) "World Changed This Week" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (11/4): 
 
"This week, the first of November 2008, will do down in history as 
the week that formally revives Taiwan's normal relations with the 
Chinese mainland after a six-decade estrangement. ...  Chen and 
Chiang met in Beijing in June for the first direct dialogue between 
the two sides in ten years.  This week's talks will mark a 
significant step forward in cross-Strait relations and show concrete 
progress after a scheduled meeting in Taipei in 1999 was scrapped 
amid acrimony over sovereignty issues.  The new agreements, widely 
seen as a significant accomplishment of President Ma, will give a 
major boost to Taiwan's economy and trade.  Both sides have stressed 
that politics do not feature on this week's agenda.  Ultimately, the 
Taiwan people's attention is on how the mainland visitor addresses 
President Ma when the president receives him.  If Chen doesn't 
address President Ma by his official title, all the mutual goodwill 
and efforts would amount to little, and cross-strait detente would 
remain a pipe dream." 
 
¶5. U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan 
 
"F-16 Fighters -- Lost in the Shuffle?" 
 
Robert Sutter, an American professor of the School of Foreign 
Service in Georgetown University, opined in the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] (11/4): 
 
"... Taiwan and China are maneuvering for advantage in the improved 
cross-strait atmosphere. Economic and social contacts will advance 
with the visit of Association for Relations across the Taiwan Strait 
(ARATS) Chairman Chen Yunlin to Taiwan.  However, uncertainty clouds 
the efforts to get China to ease diplomatic isolation and military 
intimidation of Taiwan. Chinese officials don't move on these areas 
because they are suspicious of Ma's willingness to consider 
reunification and his defense plans that include advanced weapons, 
notably F-16 fighters, from the US. ... 
 
"The incoming administration, whether headed by Obama or McCain, 
will take time - probably years - to build such a relationship with 
Beijing.  The past record shows that Chinese officials - in the 
interim - will be extremely sensitive to policies of the new US 
government toward Taiwan and will react very strongly to US arms 
sales or other initiatives.  Of course, the new US government may 
decide to move ahead with F-16 sales anyway, but the resulting 
uproar in China-US relations is probably the last thing an Obama or 
McCain administration would seek in the midst of enormous US 
problems at home and abroad that require extensive cooperation with 
China.  Meanwhile, defense specialists in Washington say that the US 
ability to provide F-16s to Taiwan or any other country is scheduled 
to end within a year as a result of the closing of the aircraft's 
production line. 
 
"Looking out, conceivable options for the US to provide advanced 
fighters to Taiwan seem very limited.  Providing Taiwan with US 
fighters more advanced that the F-16s would risk such strident 
Chinese reaction that even tough-minded US policymakers determined 
to deter Chinese military intimidation of Taiwan are likely to 
eschew the choice.  They are more likely to make a virtue out of a 
necessity and support the so-called "porcupine" strategy for 
Taiwan's defense that emphasizes measures Taiwan can take for 
self-defense that preclude use of advanced aircraft to take the 
battle to the invading enemy across the Strait." 
 
YOUNG