VZCZCXRO9035
RR RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHYE #0865/01 3041205
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301205Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8206
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0660
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0600

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000865 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL KDEM AM
SUBJECT: NEW FACT FINDING GROUP TO LOOK INTO MARCH 1 UNREST 
APPOINTED 
 
YEREVAN 00000865  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
(U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) On October 23 President Serzh Sargsian signed a decree 
establishing a five-member fact finding expert group tasked with 
collecting key facts relating to the March post-election unrest. 
This follows pressure from PACE Human Rights Commissioner Hammarberg 
for establishment of a credible, balanced fact-finding inquiry. 
According to the decree, the new body's information will be funneled 
to the ad hoc parliamentary commission to determine whether the use 
of lethal force against opposition protesters was justified and to 
ascertain the circumstances in which ten people died on that day. 
This is an imperfect, but positive step.  The next question is 
whether the opposition will participate. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) President Sargsian signed a presidential decree October 23 
to create an independent panel of experts to undertake fact-finding 
in support of the parliamentary ad hoc commission of inquiry in the 
political violence of March 1, 2008.  According to the decree, the 
opposition Armenian National Congress led by Levon Ter-Petrossian 
and the Heritage party of Raffi Hovannisian will each name one 
member of the group, who will effectively represent opposition 
interests.  Two other members will be nominated by Armenia's 
governing coalition.  The remaining fifth member will represent the 
Armenian Human Rights Defender (Ombudsman), Armen Harutyunian.  The 
group members, with the exception of the one picked by the 
Ombudsman, are to have judicial experience and can not be directly 
affiliated with any party, hold government positions, or be members 
of parliament. They will have the right to engage local and foreign 
experts in the probe.  The activities of the group will be financed 
from the Presidential staff's budget. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The expert group will be able to obtain information 
relating to post election clashes from state agencies and local 
government bodies and any of their officials and to direct relevant 
state bodies to conduct forensic tests and examinations.  It can 
also question individuals who played a part in the unrest but only 
with their consent. (Note: This means that former officials -- for 
example, former president Robert Kocharyan -- have no legal 
obligation to respond to any possible questions of the group, unless 
they agree to do this voluntarily. End note.) The fact-finding group 
should forward criminal evidence it may discover to the relevant 
authorities for prosecution, although is exempted from this 
requirement if a witness testifies on the condition of 
confidentiality. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The fact-finding group's work will take place entirely 
behind closed doors.  Moreover, any member of the group who releases 
any information about the activities or findings of the group will 
be removed.  The members of the group may not be replaced, except 
for members who may be terminated for unauthorized disclosure.  The 
group is to make its decisions through a simple majority vote in 
cases of disagreement on an issue, and will elect a leader on its 
first day of activities in the same manner, who will organize the 
works of the group and sign documents. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The group will cease work as soon as it collects and 
passes to the commission all the necessary facts and explanations, 
unless the ad hoc commission asks for additional information.  The 
President's directive sets no deadline for the group's submission. 
Currently, the parliamentary commission is set to expire February 
25, 20089, so that may be a de facto deadline, but it is also 
possible the parliamentary commission's existence could be extended 
once again if the work is not complete.  The commission was 
initially set to expire in October, and was extended by legislative 
action on October 22.  According to the decree, the findings of the 
expert group will be published in the manner agreed by the group at 
the same time when it's presented to the parliamentary commission. 
There is also a provision for dissenting opinions of any of the 
group members to be included in the final report.  The decree seems 
to provide that the fact-finding group's final report will be made 
public at the same time as it is provided to the parliamentary 
commission. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) According to the decree the parties engaged have 10 days 
following the official publication of the decree to appoint their 
representatives.  On the 11th day ( November 3) the group will be 
considered as formed, if there were at least three nominations. 
Neither the Heritage Party nor the Armenian National Congress has 
announced whether it will participate in the fact-finding group 
according to the terms set by the presidential decree. The Ombudsman 
has appointed his chief of staff Vahe Stepanian to the fact-finding 
group.  Stepanian was Minister of Justice from 1990-1996 (in the 
 
YEREVAN 00000865  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Levon Ter-Petrossian administration). .  The ruling coalition has 
made its intention to participate clear.  The Ombudsman told the 
reporters October 27 that there were both negative and positive 
aspects in the decree; while the positive was not enough to be 
absolutely sure, it was enough to give the initiative a try. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) According to the Ombudsman the group was the first real 
step towards a dialogue between the authorities and the opposition, 
and that despite the fact that the idea on forming the expert group 
is belated, it is much more important that finally a balanced format 
for collecting facts will be formed, where each of the sides will 
have the opportunity to take part on equal footing. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Heritage Party MP Stepan Safarian, noted there are both 
positive and negative opinions in the party, and they are currently 
discussing both their participation and the possible candidacies for 
the group. The Armenian National Congress representative Levon 
Zurabian has told us essentially the same.  Edik Baghdasarian, the 
head of the Association of Investigative Journalists known for very 
good investigative reporting, has told Heritage about his interest 
in being named as that party's representative in the fact-finding 
group.  The opposition parties have previously indicated the 
readiness to participate in the fact-finding group, but are troubled 
by some of the details of the presidential decree, such as the 
draconian secrecy of the commission and the lack of international 
representatives as equal participants in the panel.  (The members of 
the fact-finding group are explicitly empowered to hire 
international expertise, but such individual would be consulting 
staff, as opposed to full members of the panel.)  Opposition 
representatives had reportedly understood from PACE Human Rights 
Commissioner Hammarberg that he had pushed for international experts 
to be appointed to the fact-finding group. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The issue of the secrecy of the activities of the group 
has spurred the most controversy, as most observers noted that 
transparency was vital for the credibility of the group, and that 
this manner of operation could give way to lots of pressure on group 
members.  Heritage MP Zaruhi Postanjyan said publicly that the 
authorities could claim that an undesirable group member has leaked 
some information and this would allow them to sack that person. 
Levon Zurabian pointed out that the former 9/11 Commission staffers 
who visited Armenia had said one of the 9/11 Commission's best tool 
in ensuring compliance with its information requests had been the 
threat to hold a press conference.  However, another representative, 
opposition Republic Party insider Artak Zeynalian, has suggested to 
us that things are not as simple as they seem, and that perhaps the 
real purpose of making the group's activities secret was to protect 
witnesses from retaliation, such as from allies of  former president 
Robert Kocharian. 
 
COMMENT 
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¶10.  (SBU) Notwithstanding some qualms, this fact-finding group is 
overall a positive development.  If the two opposition groups agree 
to participate, the group should address several short-comings of 
the parliamentary commission:  it will have political balance, it 
will have additional time and staff resources, and the ability to 
interview witnesses confidentially.  Less ideal is the overzealous 
gag rule against any public disclosures before the group dissolves. 
The provisions for a public final report and for dissenting opinions 
to be included in the final report are encouraging.  The opportunity 
for international expertise to be involved is good, but it would 
have been better had such representatives been appointed with full 
membership. 
 
¶11. (SBU) We have had some preliminary conversations with EU 
officials about the idea of perhaps combining to support such 
international expertise in the fact-finding group, although we have 
more deliberation to do about the optics, potential pitfalls, and 
modalities of doing so.  Though Heritage and the Armenian National 
Congress have yet to confirm their intentions, our bet is that they 
will choose to take part.  Zurabian even hinted that the ANC might 
even choose belatedly to join the parliamentary ad hoc commission, 
as the government had invited them to do, though he emphasized this 
too remains to be firmly decided -- the ANC has so far stuck with 
its strident talking points about the illegitimacy and imbalance of 
the parliamentary commission.  If we are correct in our prediction, 
and the opposition does join the group, the next test will be if 
they stick with it to the end or drop out again over some perceived 
slight or unfairness. 
 
YOVANOVICTCH