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O 240129Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
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S E C R E T WELLINGTON 000356 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/ANP AND INR/FO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2018 
TAGS: PINR PREL NZ
SUBJECT: A/S FORT'S OCTOBER 9-10 VISIT TO NEW ZEALAND 
 
Classified By: Pol/Econ Counselor Margaret B. McKean; Reason 1.4 (b), ( 
c), (d) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary.  During an October 9-10 visit to New 
Zealand, INR A/S Randall Fort met with members of the 
External Assessments Bureau (EAB), the Chief Executive of the 
Prime Minister and Cabinet's Department, Ministry of Foreign 
Affairs and Trade Deputy Secretary Caroline Forsyth, and 
officials with New Zealand's Government Communications 
Security Bureau (GCSB).  GNZ officials praised USG efforts to 
improve intelligence sharing, particularly with respect to 
imagery.  GNZ interlocutors acknowledged that New Zealand 
gains enormous benefits from being part of the Five Eyes 
intelligence community.  A/S Fort's message focused on the 
increasing sophistication of commercial search engines and 
the growing number of open source analyses available to 
policymakers.  In the future, the intelligence community must 
find ways to differentiate their products and provide value 
added to policy makers, argued A/S Fort.  He also discussed 
the issues surrounding cyberspace and national security.  Key 
issues for GNZ officials centered on the recent 
Georgia/Russia conflict, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan/Afghanistan, 
North Korea and the Pacific region.  End Summary. 
 
Security of Public Sector Computers is Key Concern 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶2.  (C)  INR Assistant Secretary Fort visited New Zealand on 
October 9-10, accompanied by other INR staff.  Meetings with 
GNZ officials included calls on Gregory Baughen, head of New 
Zealand's External Assessments Bureau (EAB), working sessions 
with EAB officials, a meeting with Bruce Miller, Deputy 
Director of New Zealand's GCSB, and a a call on Michael 
XXXXXXXXXXXX, Deputy Director of New Zealand Security 
Intelligence Service (NZSIS).  Discussions with EAB working 
level staff and analysts from other government offices 
focused on the recent Russia/Georgia conflict, North Korea 
and northeast Asia, China, Iran/Iraq, Afghanistan, and the 
Pacific region. 
 
¶3.  (S/NF)  During his visit, Fort called on Chief Executive 
of the Department for Cabinet and Prime Minister's Office, 
Maarten Wevers, who manages a staff of 120, including 
Domestic and External Security groups, the PM's policy group, 
and Wevers also oversees New Zealand's intelligence 
committee.  Wevers likened his Department to the National 
Security Council in terms of breadth of coverage and 
responsibilities.  He noted that EAB's operations are highly 
compartmentalized and EAB reports are tightly held within 
Cabinet, with few Ministers seeing them.  He explained that 
New Zealand's contribution to the Five Eyes intelligence 
community consists of two monitoring stations; one in the 
northern end of the south island, and the other on the north 
island near Wellington.  Wevers offered that the GNZ 
recognizes that it is a "enormous beneficiary" of the Five 
Eyes community and lauded the good bilateral relations on 
intelligence sharing, including recent strides in imagery 
sharing.  He added that New Zealand was "well past the 
military issues" of the past.  A/S Fort hoped the additional 
access would prove useful to New Zealand; the amount of 
information and management of the information can be a 
challenge.  Wevers commented that intelligence and 
assessments may mean something different to New Zealand than 
to other Five Eyes partners.  Often there are significant 
differences with Australia, he added, as New Zealand is a 
more Pacific country than Australia and the latter is not 
always attuned to Pacific developments. 
 
¶4.  (C)  A/S Fort spoke about the challenges for intelligence 
analysts posed by the rapid growth of commercially available 
analytic services outside government and the sophistication 
of search engines such as Google and Yahoo.  The information 
needed by policymakers is increasingly available outside 
government, and the size of outside companies or groups is 
not a factor.  Smaller can be very nimble; the quality of the 
analysis is key and the intelligence community must 
increasingly look to match outside services and provide 
additional value added to remain relevant, affirmed the A/S. 
 
¶5. (C)  Fort turned to issues involving cyberspace and the 
Comprehensive National Cybersecurity Initiative (CNCI), which 
will begin with the Five Eyes and then move to NATO 
countries.  Security is part of the issue, but the A/S also 
stressed the relevance to finance and defense.  Even small 
countries can benefit with a relatively small contribution 
towards equipment and personnel.  Regarding deterrence, he 
mentioned that there are analogues to nuclear deterrence but 
the international community is only beginning to think about 
cyber threats in similar fashion.  Wevers noted that the GNZ 
is seized with the issue of cybersecurity, and GCSB is 
working with the PM's Department to protect the public sector 
computer system and analyze the range of risks. 
 
¶6.  (C)  In discussing the Pacific and Chinese activities in 
the region, Wevers said that China has recognized that their 
competition with Taiwan is not helpful, but their foreign 
affairs officials are not always aware of what others in the 
Chinese government are doing in the region.  Venezuela and 
Cuba are now coming into the Pacific, and Wevers likened 
their interest to that of the Russians in the past.  A/S Fort 
mentioned that the backtracking of democracy in the broader 
Pacific region (Fiji, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia) was a 
Washington concern.  The region is more fragile today than 10 
years ago, he opined, and urged a coordinated approach by the 
stronger and healthier democracies.  Wevers offered that APEC 
remains an important regional mechanism and the East Asia 
Summit, which includes India, is another good venue for 
raising issues.  Wevers added that China is only now 
realizing the very significant law and order problem within 
China, as people are making money illicitly without any sense 
of the rule of law.  The metamphetamine problem in the region 
can be traced to China, continued Wevers, and the precursor 
chemicals are coming into New Zealand and other countries in 
large containers that are difficult to stop. 
 
Meeting with MFAT Deputy Secretary Caroline Forsyth 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶7.  (S/NF)  DepSec Forsyth welcomed A/S Fort's visit, stating 
that the GNZ values its contacts with the Washington 
intelligence community.   The twice-weekly CIA-Commonwealth 
briefings are very useful, but the Five Eyes provides greater 
depth.  She added that intelligence reports go to the PM's 
office, who "absorbs" the paper.  A/S Fort explained that the 
State INR Bureau is relatively small, and therefore focuses 
on core issues.  Currently, Washington policymakers are 
focused on the longer term implications of the recent 
Russia/Georgia conflict and what is holds for Russia's future 
and adherence to international norms.  With North Korea, the 
Six Party Talks are the central issue, but also Kim Jong Il's 
health and possible successor.  Afghanistan's trend lines are 
worrisome, he added, particularly due to the link with the 
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan. 
Pakistan's transition to civilian leadership is being watched 
closely in Washington, noted the A/S.  He and Forsyth 
discussed Iranian nuclear pretensions and possible Israeli 
reaction.  A/S Fort offered that Israel is likely to strike 
if the government of Israel believes Iran has met their red 
lines; an Israeli strike against Iran would be more complex 
than those launched against Iraq and Syria, he said.  A/S 
Fort added that the US-India nuclear deal was an historic 
diplomatic achievement for the Secretary.  Responding to 
Forsyth's question, Fort downplayed Venezuela as a threat to 
USG interests and characterized Chavez as more of an 
annoyance with limited political influence within the region. 
 
¶8.  (S)  Forsyth praised the US-New Zealand bilateral 
relationship, noting that the highlight of the year had been 
the Secretary's visit to New Zealand and onward travel to 
Samoa, which had provided a window into the challenges facing 
the Pacific, particularly to the micro-states of the region. 
New Zealand views the situation in Fiji as "acute," and 
appreciates USG support for the Pacific Island Forum (PIF) 
position on Fiji.  A/S Fort commented that GNZ sigint had 
been critical to USG understanding of the 2006 coup.  Forsyth 
offered that New Zealand sees an arc of instability in 
Melanesia, as there is a great deal of money but little to no 
capacity to use it wisely.  The Solomon Islands are under 
control at the moment but there are still significant 
problems in terms of governance and corruption.  The GNZ is 
weighing the necessary structural changes needed to make a 
long-lasting improvement in the SI society so that RAMSI 
security forces might depart.  Vanuatu is coping for the 
moment, she added, and New Zealand is putting significant 
assistance towards agricultural projects there. 
 
¶9.  (S/NF)  Moving to North Korea, Forsyth asked if the 
stalled progress on the Six Party Talks was linked to a DPRK 
assessment that the U.S. election aftermath might offer a 
better deal.  A/S Fort replied in the negative, noting that 
foreign policy continuity is the norm.  Oscillation is part 
of the DPRK strategy, he added, and the current situation is 
complicated by Kim Jong Il's health issues and the succession 
process.  Kim Jong Il played off the former Soviet Union and 
China to his benefit and may be trying to use the U.S. in the 
same way as the Soviets.  China's role has been constructive, 
continued Fort, largely because Beijing does not want to see 
a nuclear Korean peninsula and the ramifications of a 
northeast Asian arms race.  The A/S mentioned that North 
Korea faces a food crisis despite World Food Program 
assistance.  Forsyth said that the New Zealand high 
commissioner in Seoul would be going soon to North Korea for 
a periodic visit. 
 
¶10.  (S/NF)  The MFAT Deputy Secretary asked for A/S Fort's 
assessment of Afghanistan and Pakistan.  New Zealand has 
troops stationed in Bamiyan province and the GNZ is concerned 
over the malevolent influence from the tribal areas of 
Pakistan, particularly since the international community has 
been trying to transform Afghanistan into a state since 2001. 
 Fort responded that Afghanistan will be an enduring 
challenge for generations requiring cultural changes.  The 
U.S. is determined to be more aggressive in addressing 
Taliban cross-border operations, and is weighing the 
political costs with Pakistan.  Forsyth and Fort discussed 
prospects for the Indian government to improve its relations 
with Islamabad to ease pressure on the Pakistan army to fight 
insurgents in the FATA. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11.  (C)  GNZ interlocutors were pleased to have the 
opportunity to discuss a range of global issues of bilateral 
concern.  All meetings focused on GNZ support for the 
intelligence sharing partnership and, in particular, the 
singular role of Prime Minister Clark in ensuring good 
cooperation.  As of this writing, the New Zealand HC based in 
Seoul has already returned from her trip to the DPRK; we will 
try to get a readout from MFAT.  End Comment. 
 
¶12.  (U)  A/S Fort has cleared this message. 
MCKEAN