VZCZCXRO6767
PP RUEHNZ
DE RUEHWL #0342/01 2900442
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P 160442Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5479
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 5284
RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND PRIORITY 1762
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 0736
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000342 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/ANP 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NZ
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER KEY WINS OPENING DEBATE WITH PM 
CLARK 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  On October 14, Prime Minister Helen 
Clark and opposition National Party leader John Key 
participated in the first of a series of head-to-head debates 
before the November 8 election.  The debate was particularly 
timely in that recent polling has shown the gap between the 
two parties narrowing.  The contest was fiercely fought, but 
media analysts and the public viewed Key as the winner.  Key 
made a case for change and his overall performance 
strengthened his image as a Prime-Minister-in-waiting.  Clark 
cited her leadership credentials, Labour's track record over 
the past nine years, and sought to convince viewers that in 
these challenging times experience was needed.  However, Key 
who exceeded expectations and enabled National to get its 
campaign back on track after a difficult week.  End Summary. 
 
Clark vs. Key: Round One 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU)  On the evening of October 14, Prime Minister Helen 
Clark and National Party leader John Key squared off in a 
robust TVNZ-YouTube New Zealand debate, the first one-on-one 
debate ahead of the November 8 election. (Note:  There will 
be other debates between the leaders of the minor parties. 
End Note.)  The two leaders fielded questions from the 
moderator, a panel of three political journalists, and from 
New Zealanders via YouTube video messages.  For Clark, the 
debate was a chance to remind voters of her leadership 
credentials and build upon momentum gained from a successful 
campaign launch on October 13.  For Key, this debate served 
as an opportunity to prove that he is a 
Prime-Minister-in-waiting and to seize back the initiative 
from Labour after his own party's lackluster official 
campaign launch on October 12. 
 
Debate Fought with Vigor yet Respect 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  The debate itself was fiercely, but respectfully, 
fought between the two as they addressed issues ranging from 
the management of the economy to whether the Labour 
Government was running a "nanny state."  On New Zealand's 
weakened economy in the wake of the global financial crises, 
Clark touted her Government's track record of fiscal 
management and its recent tax cut program.  In response, Key 
offered National's more ambitious tax cut program, referenced 
the exodus of highly skilled and educated workers from New 
Zealand under Labour and labeled the economy as inefficient 
and in need of new thinking to make New Zealand more 
competitive.  On climate change, Clark stated that she wants 
New Zealand to lead the world on this area.  Key said that 
goal is unrealistic and could jeopardize the New Zealand 
economy's ability to rebound from the poor economic 
conditions and growing government deficits.  Key accused 
Labour of intruding too far into the lives of New Zealanders 
to regulate behavior, including Labour's recent ill-advised 
policy to limit the water people use for daily showers (which 
has been savaged by New Zealanders on radio call-in shows). 
Clark resolutely disagreed, offering that government 
interventions under Labour have helped the majority of New 
Zealanders. 
 
Clark Makes the Case for Experience 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Clark, an experienced debater, displayed a firm 
handle on policy and detail.  She was confident, assured and 
enthusiastic about her party's record in office and her 
vision for New Zealand.  At times she struggled to find 
suitable language to effectively convey her position and 
often reverted to quoting government statistics to support 
her arguments.  The PM focused much of her attention on 
policies designed to help working families and lower income 
Kiwis.  She chided Key for not having participated in the 
anti-apartheid Springbok demonstrations of the 1980s whereas 
she has been politically active since her student days. 
Clark's message was that her leadership is a known quantity 
whereas Key's capacity to lead is largely unknown.  Moreover, 
she argued that in these perilous economic times it is 
imprudent, even dangerous, to go with a newcomer. 
 
Key Underlines Change and Aspiration 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  John Key advocated change, ambition and his 
ability to handle the job of Prime Minister.  He emphasized 
 
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pragmatism over ideology and displayed a sound understanding 
of the principles and details of government.  He was not 
afraid to rebut Clark and often did so in a forceful, yet 
respectful manner.  Key illustrated his party's policies and 
his own vision in language familiar to most New Zealanders. 
He emphasized much-needed changes in law and order, as well 
as education.  Although he had a couple of stumbles, Key's 
confidence never wavered and he was poised throughout the 
ninety-minute debate.  Key stressed that after eight years in 
power, Labour has lost its way and that it's time for a 
change.  His language was peppered with aspirational high 
notes, yet he worked to appear grounded and pragmatic. 
 
Key Voted Winner 
---------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  The popular verdict - by pundits and public alike 
- was that Key came out on top and single-handedly succeeded 
to get his faltering campaign back on track.  Most 
importantly though, analysts believed that Key did enough to 
establish his leadership credentials.  They praised his 
poise, passion, common touch and grasp of issues.  A phone-in 
poll of 40,000 New Zealanders immediately after the debate 
showed that 68 percent of respondents agreed with the 
punditry and thought Key bested Clark.  Although it was 
acknowledged that Clark did not have a bad debate and 
essentially met her expectations, Key exceeded his (and many 
others') expectations and therefore won the debate. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  While Clark and Key traded blows, none was 
obviously fatal.  Immediately following the debate, Clark 
appeared upbeat and complimentary of the debate; following 
the results that showed Key was widely believed to be the 
winner, her mood changed and she sharply criticized Key.  A 
natural and experienced debater, Clark was looking forward to 
showing up Key and illustrating that he is well out of his 
depth to assume the mantle of leadership in New Zealand. 
That did not happen, and Key turned in a solid performance 
that showed he was on top of the issues and prepared to be 
Prime Minister.  National Party officials likely breathed a 
sigh of relief by the end of the debate, as Key needed a 
strong performance in the wake of recent polling that showed 
the gap between Labour and National sharply narrowing. 
MCCORMICK