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DE RUEHVL #0880/01 2950546
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R 210546Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2966
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 VILNIUS 000880 
 
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - October 17, 2008 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- Central Election Commission Dismisses Appeals (para. 2) 
- Lukashenka Places Restrictions on Respite Programs for Children 
(para. 3) 
- EU Suspends Travel Ban for Six Months (para. 4) 
- Opposition Youth Leader Drafted (para. 5) 
- Olga Kozulina's Proxy Beaten in Soligorsk (para. 6) 
- BKGB Returns Confiscated Equipment to Journalists (para. 7) 
- GOB Classifies High Profile Criminal Cases (para. 8) 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
- Belarus Counts on Subsidized Russian Natural Gas Supplies Beyond 
2011 (para. 9) 
- Belarus Seeks Close Cooperation with China's Multi-Billion Dollar 
CITIC Group (para. 10) 
- National Bank Raised Refinance Rate to 10.75 Percent (para. 11) 
- Belneftekhim Conglomerate Enterprises Make the Highest Profits in 
Belarus (para. 12) 
- GOB Establishes Working Group to Counteract World Economic Crisis 
(para. 13) 
- Broad Money Supply Through September up 22.1 Percent (para. 14) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 15) 
----------------- 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶2.  Central Election Commission Dismisses Appeals 
 
On October 13, the Central Election Commission (CEC) denied all the 
appeals filed by opposition hopefuls to challenge parliamentary 
election results in a number of districts.  The CEC forwarded 24 out 
of 27 complaints to precinct commissions, and CEC Chairwoman Lidiya 
Yermoshina alleged that the rest of the opposition candidates 
"accepted the results".  She also stated that there was "no 
evidence" of electoral law "massive violations". 
 
¶3.  Lukashenka Places Restrictions on Respite Programs for Children 
 
President Lukashenka signed an edict on October 13 that regulates 
foreign respite programs for Belarusian children.  NGOs will now 
arrange travel only to those countries that have signed 
international or bilateral agreements with Belarus to secure 
children's safety and prompt return back home.  Until such 
agreements are enforced, only "specially organized" and most likely 
limited groups of children and accompanying officials will be able 
to visit the countries that have not yet endorsed agreements. 
Moreover, the edict imposes an age limit of 14 years for the 
children to participate in respite programs and a separate limit of 
no more than three visits to a specific country, except for the 
states that had signed agreements with Belarus before October 1, 
2008 (Italy).  Such measures will allegedly prevent children and 
host families from getting too attached to each other. 
 
¶4.  EU Suspends Travel Ban for Six Months 
 
On October 13, The European Union suspended for six months October 
13 their travel ban against 36 GOB officials, including President 
Alyaksandr Lukashenka, citing "recognition" and "reward" of progress 
after the elections and release of three political prisoners.  It 
did not remove five persons from the list over their "direct 
implication" in human rights violations and 1999-2000 disappearances 
of prominent opposition leaders and a journalist.  Those five are 
CEC Chairwoman Lidiya Yermoshina, Interior Minister Vladimir Naumov, 
former Prosecutor General and State Security Secretary Viktor 
Sheyman, former Special Task Forces Commander Dmitriy Pavlichenko, 
and former Interior Minister Yuriy Sivakov.  Yermoshina expressed 
overt indignation saying that it was "unfair, wrong", and 
"humiliating".  Sivakov said he took the decision "calmly" and had 
no intentions to "travel to the Western Europe" as he spends his 
vacations in Belarus. 
 
¶5.  Opposition Youth Leader Drafted 
 
Belarusian Popular Front Youth Wing Leader Franak Vyachorka was 
discharged from the hospital on October 15 after he had been 
summoned for extra medical examinations a week before.  Doctors 
concluded his health condition enabled him to serve in the army, and 
he would be soon drafted. 
 
 
VILNIUS 00000880  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶6.  Supporter of Olga Kozulina Beaten in Soligorsk 
 
Independent media reported on October 10 that Yana Polyakova, a 
supporter of former parliamentary candidate Olga Kozulina and a 
human rights advocate in her own right, was beaten again in 
Soligorsk late October 9.  A plainclothesman slammed Polyakova's 
head against the wall when she was unlocking her apartment door and 
threatened that she "better keep quiet".  Polyakova reported her 
injuries to the doctors.  When she went to a police precinct to 
testify, she felt sick again; however, an officer prohibited her to 
call for an ambulance and violently pushed her to the floor. 
Polyakova linked the beatings with her previous appeals to the 
prosecutors to institute criminal proceedings against police 
officers that assaulted her in August. 
 
¶7.  BKGB Returns Confiscated Equipment to Journalists 
 
On October 13, Belarusian KGB (BKGB) officers returned the computer 
equipment that was seized from the Belarus-based Polish Radio Racyja 
journalists during raids on March 27.  One of the journalists 
informed that the BKGB simply phoned their office urging to collect 
computers, a studio switchboard, voice recorders, and other 
equipment without "official explanations or apologies". 
 
¶8.  GOB Classifies High Profile Criminal Cases 
 
Various media reported on October 14 that the Prosecutor General, 
State Control Committee, Interior Ministry, BKGB, and Justice 
Ministry jointly adopted on October 1 regulations governing the 
release of information regarding high profile criminal cases and 
crimes that allegedly undermine the GOB's authority.  Only criminal 
law enforcement agencies and courts shall provide information to the 
media, especially about ongoing criminal hearings following judges' 
personal authorization.  Belarusian Association of Journalists media 
experts condemned the provisions citing that they would impose wider 
censorship and further arbitrary limitations on independent media's 
access to information about sensitive criminal investigations, e.g. 
corruption, bribery, July 4 bombing, and other similar cases. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶9.  Belarus Counts on Subsidized Russian Natural Gas Supplies Beyond 
2011 
 
According to Belarusian press reports, First Deputy Prime-Minister 
Vladimir Semashko stated October 14 that the GOB welcomes Russia's 
decision to terminate subsidized supplies of natural gas to domestic 
consumers starting in 2011.  Speaking at the Energy Saving and 
Ecology conference in Minsk Semashko also said Belarus understands 
Russia's subsequent intent to postpone its original decision until 
2014-2015, since otherwise consequences for the Russian economy 
would be disastrous.  The GOB wants similar treatment and hopes 
union state with Russia will help amend 2006 bilateral agreement on 
gas supplies until 2011 and beyond. 
 
¶10.  Belarus Seeks Close Cooperation with China's Multi-Billion 
Dollar CITIC Group 
 
The presidential press service reported on October 14 that 
Lukashenka met with the Chairman of the Board of China International 
Trust and Investment Corporation (CITIC Group) Kun Dan.  Belarus is 
seeking close cooperation with CITIC in finance, machine building, 
production of construction materials, sports and tourism.  The 
number one project with CITIC Group, whose total assets exceeded USD 
200 billion in 2007, is upgrading Belarus cement production 
facilities.  Lukashenka stressed, nevertheless, Belarus needs high 
quality production machinery only and timely completion of the 
project. 
 
¶11.  National Bank Raised Refinance Rate to 10.75 Percent 
 
Belarus' National Bank issued resolution 143 on October 7 to 
increase refinance rate from 10.5 percent to 10.75 percent.  The 
Bank plans to raise the rate to 11 percent before the end of the 
year.  As a result, Belarusian banks are expected to issue 14-17 
percent interest rate loans and pay 11-14 percent interest on 
savings accounts. 
 
¶12.  Belneftekhim Conglomerate Enterprises Make the Highest Profits 
in Belarus 
 
Belarus' Finance Ministry Securities Department published on October 
14, 2008 the list of Belarus' most profitable joint stocks in the 
first six months of the year.  The top five on the list are 
industries belonging to Belneftekhim conglomerate.  Belarus' two oil 
refineries, Naftan in Novopolotsk and oil refinery Mozyr, are the 
largest Belneftekhim holdings. 
 
¶13.  GOB Establishes a Working Group to Counteract World Economic 
 
VILNIUS 00000880  003 OF 003 
 
 
Crisis 
 
First Deputy Economy Minister Pyotr Zhabko announced October 15 that 
the government had established a working group to lessen the effects 
of the world economic crisis on the country's economy.  The group 
monitors the situation closely and, if need be, will come up with 
preventive measures.  The GOB believes exports may be jeopardized 
first. 
 
¶14.  Broad Money Supply through September up 22.1 Percent 
 
According to National Bank statistics issued October 16, the 
country's broad money supply increased through September by 22.1 
percent to the equivalent of USD 14 billion.  Cash money supply (M0) 
grew 27.9 percent; cash money and savings deposits (M1) grew 20.7 
percent; M1 and other time deposits (M2) increased by 22.5 percent. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶15.  United Democratic Forces (UDF) leaders met with Polish Deputy 
Foreign Minister Andrzej Kremer on October 13 and voiced their 
support to EU decision to suspend visa ban for 36 of Belarus' senior 
officials.  Commenting the UDF decision to Belapan news agency, 
United Civic Party chair and UDF leader Anatoliy Lebedko said: 
 
"The only reservation UDF had about the EU decision was regarding 
Lukashenka.  This was premature.  Alyaksandr Hryhorevich sold 
something that had no value, i.e. his rhetoric, which was not 
supported by facts and deeds." 
 
MOORE 
LEADER