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RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVL #0854/01 2841517
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101517Z OCT 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2931
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000854 
 
SIPDIS 
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - October 10, 2008 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- Convictions for Assault against Opposition Activist (para. 2) 
- Foreign Students Protest Racist Attacks (para. 3) 
- Malady Front Splits (para. 4) 
- Independent Weekly Denied State Distribution (para. 5) 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
- Finland's Olvi Oy Buys 51 Percent of Belarus' Lidskoye Pivo 
Brewery (para. 6) 
- Lukashenka Committed to his Economic Approach (para. 7) 
- Lower House Approves 2009 Budget (para. 8) 
 
Foreign Trade 
------------- 
 
- Belarus' Foreign Trade in Services up 35.4 Percent through July 
(para. 9) 
- Belarus and Russia Postpone Natural Gas Price Talks (para. 10) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 11) 
----------------- 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶2.  Convictions for Assault against Opposition Activist 
 
On October 3, a Gomel district court sentenced two persons to two 
and one-half years of home detention or "khimiya" and USD 1,420 
reimbursement of moral damages on severe hooliganism charges.  The 
two attacked local opposition activist Igor Sluchiek on July 27.  He 
reported a broken nose and other minor injuries to the police. 
Sluchiek welcomed the verdict but did not directly link it with his 
opposition political activities. 
 
¶3.  Foreign Students Protest Racist Attacks 
 
Over 200 Asian and African students of the Gomel State Medical 
University boycotted classes on October 6.  They protested frequent 
hooligan attacks based on racial differences and insisted the police 
reinforce security measures at dormitories.  Persons who stabbed a 
student from India in May are now facing criminal charges. 
 
¶4.  Malady Front Splits 
 
Youth movement "Malady Front" (MF) dismissed its deputy chair Artur 
Finkevich and two regional leaders for alleged "defamatory 
activities" at a council meeting on October 6.  In the meantime, 
Finkevich and his 24 supporters within the MF announced the 
suspension of Chairman Zmitser Dashkevich on October 6 citing 
Dashkevich's "undemocratic behavior and conduct".  They also 
established a new group called "Maladaya Belarus" (Young Belarus) to 
unite all the youth movements and groups prior to the 2011 
presidential elections.  Moreover, Finkevich urged to hold a 
convention to prevent further breakup of the MF. 
 
¶5.  Independent Weekly Denied State Distribution 
 
On October 6, the state-run printed press distributor Belsoyuzpechat 
denied yet again the independent weekly "Nasha Niva" a request for 
sales and distribution through its network of kiosks and stands 
across Belarus.  The editorial called the ban that has been in place 
since 2006 "politically motivated" and "discriminatory".  It 
announced it would apply again next year. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶6.  Finland's Olvi Oy Buys 51 Percent of Belarus' Lidskoye Pivo 
Brewery 
 
According to press reports, Finland's Olvi Oy Corporation purchased 
a 51 percent stake in one of Belarus' largest breweries, Lidskoye 
Pivo (Lida Beer) based in the city of Lida, Grodno region.  The 
Belarusian brewery has sought a strategic investor since May and had 
to issue more shares to this end.  The USD 16 million deal was 
cleared by the GOB. 
 
¶7.  Lukashenka Committed to his Economic Approach 
 
According to the presidential press service, speaking to senior 
 
VILNIUS 00000854  002 OF 002 
 
 
Belarusian KGB officers October 7 Lukashenka claimed his economic 
policies would help minimize the effects of the world financial 
crisis for Belarus.  He admitted that although Belarusian stocks are 
not sold internationally, the country's exports may shrink or get 
jeopardized in some other way.  Lukashenko failed to elaborate on 
how his government would deal with possible challenges alluding, 
though, to his fruitful practices of keeping the country's major 
stocks in government's hands and under its tight control.  He also 
opined that Western governments will ultimately pursue the same 
economic policy. 
 
¶8.  Lower House Approves Belarus 2009 Budget 
 
According to the media, Belarus' Lower House approved the country's 
2009 budget in the second reading on October 9 and sent it further 
up to the Upper House.  The bill will most likely run smoothly 
through the parliament to be signed into law some time soon.  2009 
budget provides for 1.8 percent deficit, 10 percent GDP, 9-11 
percent inflation and natural gas price of USD 140 per one thousand 
cubic meters.  The budget will subsidize two-thirds of households' 
energy and utility expenses.  The budget also provides for 1.3 
percent of the GDP reduction in tax load and introduction of a flat 
12 percent income tax rate. 
 
------------- 
Foreign Trade 
------------- 
 
¶9.  Belarus' Foreign Trade in Services up 35.4 percent through July 
 
 
Belarus' Statistics Ministry reported October 3 that the country's 
on-the-year foreign trade in services grew through July by 35.4 
percent.  Belarus' services exports increased 37.4 percent to USD 
2.4 billion, while imports were up 32.1 percent to USD 1.4 billion 
in the same time period.  Foreign trade in transportation services 
was up 38.8 percent, travel services up 14 percent, communication 
services up 18.5 percent, construction services up 21.8 percent, and 
computer services up 70.8 percent. 
 
¶10.  Belarus and Russia Postpone Natural Gas Price Talks 
 
An unnamed source allegedly close to the GOB told Prime-TASS news 
agency that on October 6 Belarusian and Russian senior officials 
negotiated briefly natural gas prices that Belarus will have to pay 
in 2009.  The Belarusian side refers to energy price estimates of 
Russia's Economic Development Ministry and still insists natural gas 
price should not be higher than USD 140 per one thousand cubic 
meters.  Reportedly, the Russian side strongly disagreed referring 
to the bilateral agreement signed in December 2006.  The issue is 
most likely to be discussed further in the end of the year. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶11.  Meeting with Finnish Foreign Minister and OSCE 
Chairman-in-Office Alexander Stubb October 7 Alyaksandr Lukashenka 
said: "All these talks about the last dictator were conceived across 
the ocean and brought to Europe.  Who is a dictator in the world? 
You can see [that] Lukashenka is not on the list." 
 
MOORE 
CLOUD