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P 141327Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY VIENNA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1106
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS VIENNA 001522 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AU
SUBJECT: IMPACT OF HAIDER DEATH ON AUSTRIAN POLITICAL 
SCENE: GOVERNMENT FORMATION AND HIS PARTY'S PROSPECTS 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: The death of Joerg Haider, charismatic leader 
of Austria's far-right "Future Alliance" (BZO) appears, to 
most commentators, to have clarified the political landscape 
and made a grand coalition of Social Democrats (SPO) and 
Conservatives even more probable and perhaps inevitable. 
Conservative (OVP) leader Josef Proell has used the death, 
and the ongoing financial crisis, to urge his party to accept 
an early start to pre-negotiation talks with the SPO about a 
new coalition and he has also said that a new government 
should be formed quickly.  End Summary. 
 
-- Government Formation 
 
¶2. (U) Haider's death early October 11 in a traffic accident 
appears to have significantly changed the dynamic of 
government formation in Austria following the September 28 
election, according to media and other commentators. 
Previously, the OVP was divided among pursuing three options 
-- renewing the grand coalition with the SPO, seeking to form 
a new coalition with the two parties of the far-right, and 
going into opposition.  With Haider's death, the BZO, which a 
wide range of contacts have described to us as a personality 
cult that could not survive without Haider's leadership, no 
longer seems a credible or reliable government partner. 
Haider's successor, for the present, is Stefan Petzner, the 
27-year-old former General Secretary of the BZO who is 
essentially an untested unknown.  His ability to maintain the 
party's unity, popularity, and even its independence 
vis-a-vis the Freedom Party (from which the BZO split in 2005 
and whose far-right platform it largely shares) are unclear. 
 
¶3. (U) The uncertainty about the BZO's future appears to have 
largely sidelined those in the OVP arguing for a coalition 
with the far-right.  While there are still voices calling for 
the OVP to go into opposition, party leader Proell has taken 
advantage of Haider's death to press for agreement on 
entering coalition talks (albeit "open-ended") with the SPO. 
On October 13, the OVP's parliamentary caucus and the 
Farmers' Association, two important party groups, gave a 
green light to starting negotiations.  The party's leaders 
are expected to do so October 14.  Proell, arguing that 
Austria cannot afford an extended period of negotiations 
given the present financial crisis, has said that, "we are 
not standing in the way of a speedy decision" on a new 
government.  Despite the pressure, however, Proell must still 
deal with voices in the party who believe playing second 
fiddle to the SPO again would be a mistake. 
 
-- Longer Term Impact 
 
¶4. (U) While the BZO has a secure place in the next Austrian 
parliament, with 21 seats and 11 percent of the vote, as 
noted above, the party's future is uncertain.  Freedom Party 
(FPO) leader Heinz-Christian Strache has already made 
overtures to BZO members who might wish to rejoin the FPO. 
In 2006, when Haider was not on the ballot, the BZO won under 
5 percent of the vote; his name was certainly the main reason 
the BZO took 11 percent last month.  In most state elections, 
the BZO has been unable to clear the 4 percent hurdle for 
entry into parliament.  With the personal animus between 
Strache and Haider now history, the pressure on the BZO for a 
merger will be great, and Strache has also hinted at this 
possibility.  Alternatively, the BZO may remain intact until 
the next parliamentary elections, but at that point would 
likely run a great risk of missing the 4 percent hurdle and 
then disintegrating, with the majority of its support going 
to the FPO. 
GIRARD-DICARLO