VZCZCXRO9337
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSI #2018/01 3041715
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301715Z OCT 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0311
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002018 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CARC 
 
E.O 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: LOW TURNOUT EXPECTED FOR NOVEMBER 3 ELECTIONS IN 
ADJARA AND TBILISI 
 
REF: A) TBILISI 1072 
 
¶1. Summary and comment: On November 3 elections will be held for the 
Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Adjara, which is 
institutionally an important component of Adjara's autonomy but a 
plays a minimal national role.  By-elections for the national 
Parliament will also take place in two districts of Tbilisi.  The 
seats in Tbilisi were vacated by opposition politicians who declined 
to take their seats following the May elections.  Seven political 
parties are participating in the Adjara elections and five are 
running in Tbilisi.  The ruling United National Movement (UNM) and 
Industrialists are participating in the Adjara elections, but not in 
Tbilisi; UNM chose not to run in the Tbilisi by-elections, partly to 
allow space for opposition parties in the Parliament, given their 
current majority.  Public interest and media coverage of the 
elections are generally low.  The UNM is likely to win the majority 
of the Adjaran Supreme Council seats.  The Christian Democrats, who 
are getting positive public feedback for taking their seats in 
Parliament are favored in Tbilisi.  Results are unlikely to affect 
policy in Tbilisi, but some analysts will undoubtedly interpret the 
results of these elections as an indication of public views on the 
Government's performance during and since the August conflict with 
Russia.  End summary and comment. 
 
¶2. On November 3, elections will be held in Adjara (a 
semi-autonomous region in southwest Georgia, bordering Turkey) for 
the Supreme Council, or local Adjaran parliament.  The Adjaran 
Supreme Election Council is conducting the elections.  Seven parties 
are competing for 18 seats.  Three of the parties, the 
Christian-Democratic Movement (CDM), "We Ourselves," and "Qartuli 
Dasi" (Georgian Group), make up the minority in Georgia's national 
Parliament.  The other four parties include: the ruling UNM, 
Industrialists, "Georgian Politics," and the United Communist Party 
of Georgia.  Most opposition parties, including those that were part 
of the united opposition coalition, are boycotting the elections 
(despite their calls in Tbilisi for new parliamentary or 
presidential elections).  The Conservative Party publicly admitted 
that it registered for the elections only to take advantage of 
guaranteed televised airtime allocated to parties during the 
electoral campaign.  Although the Conservative Party has not 
nominated candidates, the party is using the airtime to call on 
voters to boycott the election and support the Conservatives' 
agenda. 
 
 
¶3. Most opposition parties boycotting the elections cite the new 
political reality they claim has emerged since the August conflict, 
as their reason not to participate.  However, the Labor Party 
announced its boycott before August.  Other opposition parties, 
including the Republican Party (which is historically strong in 
Adjara), say that there are more important priorities than the local 
elections in Adjara, including working out joint opposition tactics 
on how to achieve an early general election.  According to the 
results of NDI focus groups in Adjara, voters see the Supreme 
Council as not affecting their daily lives in any way and are 
therefore, not interested in participating in these elections 
 
¶4. By-elections are also scheduled for November 3 in the Vake and 
Didube single-mandate constituencies of Tbilisi.  The Central 
Election Commission (CEC) is conducting these by-elections.  Both 
contests were called following the June resignation of the 
candidates elected in May (reftel), the New Rightists' Davit 
Qcandidates elected in May (reftel), the New Rightists' Davit 
Gamkrelidze and Davit Saganeldze, in protest at what they called 
"the fraudulent May 21 parliamentary elections."  The recent 
International Republican Institute poll on political attitudes 
indicated that the Georgian public supported the CDM's decision to 
enter Parliament and work within existing political frameworks. 
This was reflected in increasing public confidence in the CDM, and 
significant drops by the non-Parliamentary opposition. 
Interestingly, the CDM is running a candidate only in Vake district 
and not in Didube.  This may lend credence to claims by some  that 
the CDM is colluding with the UNM.  However, CDM's candidate, Tamaz 
Kvachantiradze, was Minister of Education under Shevardnadze and  is 
well-known and respected .  The CDM may be focusing its limited 
resources on just one candidate in order to maximize efforts.  The 
CDM is also working hard, en masse, in the Adjara campaign.  This 
may be yet another sign that the party is further pursuing its 
public agenda of creating a grassroots party. 
 
¶5. Most opposition parties are also boycotting these majoritarian 
by-elections in Tbilisi.  The UNM has refused to nominate 
candidates, "since the seats were won by the opposition."  In 
addition, a win by the UNM in either constituency would simply add 
additional seats to its already lopsided parliamentary majority. 
The opposition Industrialists and Conservatives are refusing to run 
in Tbilisi.    The Conservatives are not putting candidates forward 
for the parliament, as they consider  the current Parliament 
illegitimate due to flawed elections in May 2008.  While the 
Industrialists have not publicly explained why they are not running 
a candidate in Tbilisi, it is likely due to their solidarity with 
 
TBILISI 00002018  002 OF 002 
 
 
the New Rightists who renounced seats in parliament following the 
May election. Only six parties have registered candidates for 
Tbilisi: the CDM, We Ourselves, Qartuli Dasi (Georgian Group), 
National Democratic party (NDP), "Georgian Politics" and the 
Radical-Democrats. 
 
¶6.  Public interest in both the Adjaran and Tbilisi elections is 
low.  The Georgian public, having already experienced a presidential 
and parliamentary election in 2008, appear to have election fatigue. 
 In addition, the August conflict with Russia has many citizens 
thinking of security and not elections.  Consequently, public 
interest in the elections is low.  The public does not view the 
elections as a referendum on Saakashvili, his management of the 
conflict or the National Movement party. 
 
¶7. Both the CEC and international election-related organizations 
expect low turnout.  Media coverage during the pre-election period 
was low, and lingering questions about the quality of the voters' 
list (i.e. names of deceased, others not in Georgia remaining on the 
list) could also be potentially problematic.  Embassy Tbilisi and 
USAID will send three teams of election observers to Adjara, as well 
as visit polling stations in Tbilisi.  The UK Embassy and some 
others will also observe; ODIHR and OSCE will not be formally 
observing these races. 
 
LOGSDON