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FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTIAGO 000964 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CI
SUBJECT: MIXED RESULTS IN CHILE'S MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. SANTIAGO 954 
     ¶B. SANTIAGO 950 
     ¶C. SANTIAGO 581 
 
¶1.  Summary:  On Sunday October 26, voters across Chile headed to 
the polls to elect mayors and city council members.  This election - 
widely viewed as a referendum on the national political mood - 
delivered mixed results.  The conservative Alianza coalition won a 
majority of mayoral votes for the first time since 1990 while the 
Concertacion coalition maintained its hold on the majority of city 
council seats.  End summary. 
 
Mayoral Race: Big Win for Alianza 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  Opposition coalition Alianza has reason to celebrate after 
winning the majority of mayoral votes, the first time since the 
return of democracy in 1990 that it defeated Concertacion in any 
nationwide election.  Alianza earned 40 percent of the total votes 
compared to Concertacion's 38 percent.  Alianza's victory can be 
credited to the fact that they won mayoral seats in several of the 
most populous communes even though the Concertacion actually won 
more mayoral seats overall (Alianza: 139 versus Concertacion: 149). 
Today, 5.5 million Chileans are governed by an Alianza mayor and 9.6 
million by a Concertacion mayor.  When the recently elected mayors 
take office in December those numbers will shift to 7.9 million for 
Alianza and 7.4 million for Concertacion.  Alianza has also 
increased its presence in several of the communes of the 
Metropolitan Region and in regional capitals.  Most notably, in the 
commune of Santiago, Democratic Union Party (UDI) candidate Pablo 
Zalaquett handily defeated Jaime Ravinet (Christian Democrat) the 
former Minister of Housing and Defense and former mayor of Santiago 
(Ref A). 
 
Concertacion's Strong Hold on City Council 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  Concertacion strengthened its hold on city council votes 
throughout the country gaining 45 percent of the votes while Alianza 
managed 36 percent.  Despite predictions from both sides that the 
gap would narrow by as much as fifty percent, Concertacion largely 
maintained its spread over Alianza, decreasing from 10 percent to 
9(Ref B).  Analysts suggest that the vote spread in city council 
seats is a more important indicator of party strength than that in 
mayoral races because voters are less familiar with city council 
candidates and so are more likely to vote based on party 
affiliation. 
 
¶4.  In terms of individual party performance the National Renewal 
Party (RN) comes out as the leader.  Although the party gained only 
one point more than in the 2004 elections, the drop in votes for 
other parties, most notably the Christian Democratic Party (DC) and 
Democratic Union Party (UDI), left RN on top with 18 percent of city 
council votes.  DC President Soledad Alvear blamed the defeat on the 
existence of independent candidates and the Concertacion's decision 
to run two lists for city council members (Ref C), which she claimed 
confused voters.  (Comment: Alvear's analysis may be sour grapes.  A 
majority of commentators believe the split lists actually helped 
Concertacion.  End comment.)  The Socialist Party (PS), Radical 
Social Democrat Party (PRSD), and Communist Party (PC) were able to 
slightly increase their percentage of city council votes compared to 
the 2004 elections, while the Party for Democracy (PPD) maintained 
about the same as in 2004.  In its electoral debut, the Independent 
Regionalist Party (PRI) led by former DC senator Adolfo Zaldivar 
earned 7.5 percent of the vote. 
 
Implications for Presidential Elections 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  RN's overall triumph leaves Sebastian Pinera in a position to 
negotiate the possibility of being chosen as the Alianza coalition's 
sole candidate for President.  However, the UDI's role in retaining 
seats in emblematic communes and winning new mayoral seats may 
convince the party to propose its own presidential candidate.  The 
results bode ill for Alvear.  Considered by the media to be the face 
of DC's failure, Alvear will have a difficult time justifying her 
presidential candidacy.  Without much time to recover from the 
municipal elections disaster, she'll have to face Eduardo Frei in 
the internal DC primary scheduled for December 14. 
 
President Bachelet's Words of Wisdom 
------------------------------------ 
¶6.  On Sunday evening, once the mixed results for the Concertacion 
were revealed, President Bachelet took the podium at La Moneda 
palace.  She encouraged the Concertacion to be self-critical and 
highlighted the need for unity, alluding to the two lists.  Bachelet 
called for "renewal, to listen to the word on the streets, to hear 
the message and inject a new dynamism into its political activity". 
 
 
Comment 
 
SANTIAGO 00000964  002 OF 002 
 
 
------- 
 
¶7.  The mixed results of the municipal elections leave few clear 
winners and only one obvious loser - Soledad Alvear.  In the coming 
days and weeks, both political alliances will try to spin the 
results to their own advantage while internally attempting to read 
the murky tea leaves.  Post will provide further, more in depth 
analysis over the coming days.  End comment. 
 
SIMONS