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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTIAGO 000954 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CI
SUBJECT:  THE HEAT IS ON:  KEY RACES TO WATCH IN CHILE'S MUNICIPAL 
ELECTIONS 
 
REF: SANTIAGO 950 
 
¶1.  Summary.  With thousands of seats being filled in this weekend's 
municipal elections, results can be interpreted in many different 
ways.  One of the principal metrics that pundits will analyze are 
the outcomes of mayoral races in key districts, known as "emblematic 
communes".  Of the communes considered bellwethers due to population 
size or potential to change hands between the governing coalition 
Concertacion and opposition Alianza, the very close race in Santiago 
between the Concertacion candidate and a popular Alianza mayor from 
a neighboring commune is the most important of all.  End Summary. 
 
Chilean Local Elections 101 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2.  Chile's rather unusual electoral system reflects the nation's 
statist underpinnings:  elections for all city council and mayoral 
seats in the country are held on the same day.  Voting is mandatory 
for registered voters, and those who fail to vote may be fined. 
Voters--who cast ballots in gender-segregated voting booths--will 
vote for one mayoral and one city council candidate.  Voters' 
decisions about mayoral candidates are often driven by the 
personalities of the candidates themselves.  In contrast, party 
membership plays a key role in voting for city council members, who 
are generally less well known.  In fact, split ballot voting is 
quite common in municipal elections, with some voters casting 
ballots for candidates on opposite ends of the political spectrum. 
 
¶3.  Two different systems govern the mayoral and city council 
electoral processes.  The mayoral system is quite 
straightforward--the candidate with the most votes wins.  City 
council is a bit more complex.  City council positions are allocated 
to coalitions following the D'Hondt proportional representation 
method.  After the number of seats to be allocated to each party in 
the commune is decided, the specific individuals who have been 
elected are determined by the number of votes each individual 
received relative to other candidates from his party. 
 
How Do You Measure Success? 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4.  With thousands of seats to be filled in a single weekend, it's 
no simple task to interpret the election results.  However, analysts 
typically agree that there are three key factors to watch.  Because 
party loyalty plays a larger role in city council elections than in 
mayoral elections, the percentage of total votes cast nationwide for 
each of the parties/coalitions is generally seen as the most 
important factor in determining each party's strength (see reftel). 
Other key factors are the number of city council members and mayors 
elected from each party, the percentage of the votes for mayors won 
by each party, and the outcome of mayoral races in "emblematic 
communes". 
 
What Makes a Commune "Emblematic"? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  Despite lots of discussion in the press and among pundits about 
"emblematic communes", it can be hard to pin down which of Chile's 
345 communes are emblematic and why.  With 80% of the country's 
electoral population concentrated in just 66 communes, population is 
certainly a key factor.  The conservative Alianza coalition 
currently holds the mayoral seats in six of the ten most populous 
communes in the country.  Alfredo Joignant, an academic, political 
commentator, and Socialist Party member, told Poloff Oct. 22 that he 
believes Concertacion could reverse this statistic in the October 26 
election--a significant victory if it occurs.  Other communes gain 
prominence because of the stature of the candidates, possibility for 
an upset, or a closely contested race. 
 
Key Races to Watch 
------------------ 
 
¶6.  Here's a sampling of some of the key races in this year's 
municipal election: 
 
--Santiago: Described as "the mother of all battles" in the press, 
the race between Concertacion candidate Jaime Ravinet (Christian 
Democrat, or DC) and mayor of La Florida Pablo Zalaquett (Democratic 
Union, or UDI) promises to have a photo finish.  Although Ravinet, 
former Minister of Housing and Defense and former mayor of Santiago, 
started with a great advantage, Zalaquett has considerably shortened 
the distance between himself and Ravinet, with some polls now 
showing the two candidates as nearly tied.  A key factor will be the 
percentage of votes that the other candidates--Ricardo Israel 
(Regional Independent, or PRI) and Miguel Hernandez (Communist 
Party, or PC)--receive, most likely about 10 percent.  Many feel 
that these votes will damage Ravinet's chances, but Zalaquett's poor 
performance in a radio debate with the former Minister last Saturday 
will count against him.  (Note:  The commune of Santiago includes 
the central area of Santiago, but is just one of many communes in 
 
SANTIAGO 00000954  002 OF 002 
 
 
the city and metropolitan region of Santiago.  End Note.) 
 
--La Florida: One of most populated municipal districts in the city 
of Santiago, La Florida houses a large portion of the city's lower 
middle class.  Pablo Zalaquett's decision to run for mayor of 
Santiago rather than run for re-election in La Florida left Alianza 
without a natural candidate.  Many conservatives feared that Alianza 
might lose the seat.  After some tight negotiations, Alianza named 
current mayor of Estacion Central Gustavo Hasbun as their candidate. 
 Hasbun runs against the Socialist candidate Jorge Gajardo. 
Analysts will also be looking to see how Concertacion performs in 
Santiago area communes in comparison to the rest of the country.  If 
Concertacion can hold its own in the Santiago area, it will be an 
indication that public frustration over Transantiago has not yet 
translated into a lack of electoral support. 
 
--Concepcisn:  Incumbent Jacqueline van Rysselberghe (UDI) is 
strongly favored to win the mayoral race in Chile's second largest 
city.  She is looking to increase the high number of votes she 
received in the last municipal elections and potentially become a 
nationwide public figure, perhaps even a future presidential 
candidate.  Knowing that their candidate has little chance of 
success in this election, Concertacion hopes that their electoral 
agreement with the Communists will allow the Socialist candidate, 
former mayor Ariel Ulloa, to be groomed for the next congressional 
elections or for a position in government. 
 
-- Iquique: Former mayor Jorge Soria (Independent) had been in 
office since the return of democracy in 1990 but was recently 
removed from office for misuse of funds.  His son Mauricio Soria 
(Independent) is running against UDI candidate Mirtha Dubost, who is 
supported by former DC Intendente (centrally appointed regional 
governor) and Diputada Antonella Sciaraffia.  The Concertacion 
candidate Patricia Perez (Socialist Party, or PS) doesn't have much 
of a chance.  Roxana Vigueras (former PS) is representing Juntos 
Podemos, a coalition of Communists, Humanists, Greens and other 
small parties on the left. 
 
--Valparaso: Mayor Aldo Cornejo (DC) is up for reelection.  He is 
trying to gain the support of Juntos Podemos in his tight battle 
against UDI candidate Jorge Castro, a well-known personality with 
his own radio show.  However, Juntos Podemos has its own candidate, 
Ivan Vuskovic.  Concertacion, aware of the difficult situation, has 
also intensified support of Cornejo by its public figures. 
 
-- Antofagasta: Former Intendente Marcela Hernando (former Party for 
Democracy, or PPD, now running as an independent) is taking on 
acting mayor Christian Democrat candidate Gonzalo Dantaganan. 
Remarkably, Hernando has been endorsed by the DC, Alianza, and 
conservative presidential candidate Sebastian Pinera.  However, her 
high popularity has dropped a bit over the past few weeks in favor 
of Dantaganan, who had been acting mayor since the previous mayor 
was removed due to accusations of corruption. 
 
--Talca:  Alexis Sepulveda (Social Radical, or PRSD) is the first 
social radical candidate chosen to represent the Concertacion in 
this city.  When a local poll showed Sepulveda one point below 
National Renewal (RN) candidate Juan Castro, Concertacion officials 
asked Juntos Podemos candidate Roberto Celedon to pull out of the 
race but he refused.  The risk of losing Talca is well known, so 
former presidents Lagos and Frei and presidential candidate Jose 
Miguel Insulza have all come out to support Sepulveda on the 
campaign trail. 
 
--Temuco:  Concertacion candidate Ricardo Celis (PPD) is fighting to 
hold onto the office that has been in Concertacion's (DC's) hands 
since 1992.  He has received a lot of resistance from outgoing mayor 
Francisco Huenchumilla (DC) who is not running because he plans to 
run for Senate in 2009.  Celis' opponent Miguel Becker (RN) is 
running again after obtaining 40% of the votes in 2004 with the hope 
that he will win the hearts of unhappy DC voters. 
 
¶7.  Comment:  With so many different outcomes to track, Chile's 
political parties have unlimited possibilities for spinning the 
outcome of Sunday's elections.  Mayoral victories in key 
communes--and above all, in the commune of Santiago--are important 
both symbolically and practically in the Chilean political system. 
End Comment.