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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTIAGO 000950 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CI
SUBJECT: CHILE'S MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS:  WHO IS LIKELY TO WIN 
AND WHY IT MATTERS 
 
REF: A. SANTIAGO 581 
     ¶B. SANTIAGO 894 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  On Sunday, October 26, voters across 
Chile will head to the polls to elect mayors and city council 
members.  These nationwide local elections come just a year 
before the Chilean presidential election and are widely seen 
as a bellwether of the strength of political parties and 
presidential candidates.  The ruling center-left Concertacion 
coalition is widely expected to emerge victorious in the city 
council and mayoral vote, but Alianza will likely improve on 
their performance in 2004.  Small gains by Alianza are 
expected, but both sides are playing a lowered expectations 
game.  A substantial shift in either direction will generate 
significant media buzz and would be a boost to conservative 
hopes for a strong showing in next year's presidential and 
congressional elections.  End Summary. 
 
Alianza to Improve on 2004 Performance, But by How Much? 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Analysts from the right and left agree that in the 
most important measure of electoral success--the percentage 
of city council votes received by each coalition--Alianza 
will improve on their 2004 performance but will still receive 
fewer votes than the two Concertacion lists.  (Note:  See Ref 
A for a discussion of Concertacion's divided election lists 
this year.  End Note.)  The key question is how much Alianza 
will be able to narrow the gap when compared to their dismal 
performance in the 2004 municipal election, when they emerged 
10 percentage points behind Concertacion (38 percent vs. 48 
percent). 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Pundits from the left privately paint an optimistic 
scenario where Concertacion sees minimal losses.  In 
conversations with Poloff Oct. 21 and 22, progressive think 
tank director Maria de los Angeles Fernandez predicted a 
minimum of eight points between Concertacion and Alianza, 
while Socialist academic and commentator Alfredo Joignant 
foresaw a seven or eight point lead by Concertacion.  Both 
analysts say Concertacion's success rests largely on whether 
Party for Democracy (PPD) leader Pepe Auth's gamble in 
withdrawing from the larger Concertacion coalition to run a 
separate list for the PPD and Social Radicals (PRSD) will 
draw in more voters as he predicted (see Ref B). 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Meanwhile, on the right, analysts expect more 
substantial gains for the conservative Alianza coalition. 
Jose Miguel Izquierdo of the National Renewal-affiliated 
think tank Instituto Libertad told Poloff Oct. 17 a 
resurgence of small parties, a decline in Concertacion 
popularity, and a stronger, more united right will translate 
into just a three or four point gap between Alianza and 
Concertacion.  Ena von Baer of the independent, conservative 
Libertad y Desarrollo institute was more cautious about 
specific numbers, but also believes the gap between the two 
parties will narrow considerably.  Alianza Presidential 
candidate Sebastian Pinera told the Ambassador on October 27 
that he expected a five point Concertacion victory. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In public, politicians from both sides seem to have 
learned from Alianza's disastrous 2004 experience of 
predicting great gains only to face a very disappointing 
reality on election day.  Alianza politicians are publicly 
downplaying expectations.  Christian Democrat party president 
(and presidential contender) Soledad Alvear has set the bar 
for her own party rather low, promising only a 16% share of 
the city council votes compared to 21% in 2004. 
 
Who Cares About Local Elections Anyway? 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) From an outside perspective, the buzz about this 
weekend's municipal elections might seem to be much ado about 
nothing.  However, in Chilean national politics, municipal 
elections matter.  These local elections, held simultaneously 
across the country just a year before presidential and 
congressional elections, are seen as a referendum on the 
performance of Chile's political parties.  Conservative 
analyst von Baer believes Alianza's overconfidence in 2004 
doomed presidential contender Joaquin Lavin.  Lavin had been 
leading in the polls until the municipal elections, when his 
party's disappointing performance caused his popularity to 
dive while the percentage of voters who wanted to see 
Bachelet elected doubled during the following year.  Von Baer 
was careful to caution she doesn't think this election will 
have such a stark effect, but it will certainly set the stage 
in an important way for presidential campaigns.  In addition, 
the elections have been "presidentialized" this year with 
 
SANTIAGO 00000950  002 OF 002 
 
 
presidential contenders campaigning for local candidates and 
often appearing beside them in campaign posters, further 
increasing their relevance to presidential politics. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Controlling local politics can also be very helpful 
in ensuring presidential candidates get favorable attention 
in the upcoming election year.  Serving as "allies in the 
streets" (in the words of Instituto Libertad analyst Jose 
Miguel Izquierdo), mayors can direct social spending in ways 
likely to generate support for their party, invite 
presidential nominees to local events, and control access to 
billboards and signs along public streets. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Finally, municipal election results are also 
important and late-breaking inputs into decisions within 
parties and coalitions about who to nominate for president 
and how to divide power (and congressional candidates) among 
different parties in each coalition.  Within the center-left 
Concertacion coalition, the Christian Democrats are widely 
expected to garner a significantly reduced share of city 
council votes, likely translating into fewer congressional 
candidates and potentially creating an obstacle in Soledad 
Alvear's presidential quest.  On the other hand, if Pepe 
Auth's two list bet pays off, the PPD could emerge as a much 
stronger force within Concertacion.  The Social Democrats 
(PRSD), riding on PPD's coattails as their partners on the 
divided Concertacion list, may also benefit.  Meanwhile, 
Alfredo Joignant has predicted that National Renewal (RN) 
will pull ahead of the Democratic Union (UDI), requiring 
adjustments in congressional candidates allocated within 
Alianza. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  COMMENT:  Chile's municipal elections provide an 
important, if imperfect, glimpse into the mood of the voters 
just one year from the country's presidential and 
congressional elections.  In addition to the obvious impact 
on local governance, the results will help shape party 
decisions about presidential and congressional nominees. 
With the conservative Alianza coalition widely expected to 
improve on their 2004 performance--but not overtake 
Concertacion--the margin of Concertacion's advantage takes on 
outsized importance.  Also key will be how the respective 
coalitions perform in the so-called "emblematic" races, the 
high-profile mayoralities in Santiago and other major cities. 
 An only slight narrowing of Alianza's 10-point gap with 
Concertacion could confirm that Concertacion is suffering 
only a bit of unsurprising voter fatigue and can reasonably 
expect to maintain its hold on power in 2009.  However, a 
sharper narrowing of Concertacion's lead would likely get 
significant press attention and be seen as a strongly 
negative assessment of the center-left coalition.  END 
COMMENT. 
SIMONS