VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSN #1187 2892221
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 152221Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0189
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001187 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ES
SUBJECT: ARENA TABS ZABLAH AS VP TO VIE FOR CENTER VOTE
 
REF: A. SAN SALVADOR 1088 B. SAN SALVADOR 827 AND PREVIOUS
 
Classified By: The Ambassador, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: The (center-right, pro-U.S.) ARENA party 
named Arturo Zablah as its candidate for Vice President, to 
run alongside Rodrigo Avila in the March 15, 2009 election. 
Zablah is an independent businessman who served as Minister 
of Economy (1989-1993) under President Cristiani.  Press 
speculation says that Zablah would have power over economic 
policy, which he denies.  Zablah's addition to the ticket is 
a clear sign that ARENA is trying to attract moderate voters, 
and close the gap with the (left-wing) FMLN's Mauricio Funes 
in recent polls.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) After months of speculation, ARENA Presidential 
candidate Rodrigo Avila announced Arturo Zablah as his 
running mate October 9.  ARENA formally nominated him on 
October 12.  Avila denied as recently as September 16 that 
Zablah would be his running mate (ref A).  The announcement 
comes on the heels of the Central American University's 
Public Opinion Institute's (IUDOP's) release of its latest 
poll, which shows Mauricio Funes, the FMLN candidate, ahead 
of Avila by nearly 15 points. 
 
¶3. (C) Salvadoran daily La Prensa Grafica reported October 10 
that Zablah agreed to be Avila's running mate under several 
conditions, including control of El Salvador's economic 
policy, a reorganization of the Court of Accounts (Note: 
roughly equivalent to our Government Accountability Office. 
End Note.), and the elimination of value-added tax for 
medicine.  However, Zablah has publicly denied joining the 
ticket with any preconditions.  In an interview published in 
La Prensa Grafica on October 11, he shot down the newspaper's 
prior claim, and said that at this juncture, he does not know 
over which parts of the government he would hold power. 
 
¶4. (C) No members of ARENA's National Executive Council 
(COENA) were present at the October 9 press conference, an 
attempt to showcase Avila as ARENA's sole leader.  There were 
also some notable absences when ARENA presented Zablah as its 
Vice Presidential candidate on October 12.  Former Salvadoran 
President Armando Calderon Sol opted not to attend the event, 
demonstrating some of the continuing tensions within the 
party.  Calderon Sol explained to the media that he was 
"completely in agreement with Arturo Zablah," and his absence 
was due to party statutes, which dictate that former 
presidents can only participate in COENA meetings every two 
months.  However, current Salvadoran President Elias Antonio 
"Tony" Saca did attend. 
 
¶5. (C) Zablah, a Georgia Tech graduate, is owner and director 
of Salvadoran furniture and mattress manufacturer Capri.  He 
served in the Cristiani government as Minister of Economy and 
later as Presidential Commissioner for International Trade 
Negotiations.  Zablah had explored the prospect of a run for 
the Salvadoran Presidency with the support of up to three 
small, centrist Salvadoran parties (ref B), but abandoned 
that pursuit as it was impossible to form a meaningful 
coalition among them. 
 
¶6. (C) Oscar Santamaria, former Minister of Justice 
(1989-1991) and Minister of the Presidency of the Republic 
(1992-1994) under President Cristiani, as well as Minister of 
Foreign Affairs (1994-1995) in the Calderon Sol 
administration, and now foreign policy advisor to the Avila 
campaign, told PolCouns October 13 he believed the Zablah 
nomination would represent a turning point in Avila's 
campaign.  He said it was a concrete demonstration that ARENA 
under Avila will work with those outside ARENA, regardless of 
party affiliation.  He said he hoped including Zablah on the 
ticket would help the Avila campaign attract undecided, 
moderate voters who have until now been willing to consider 
the FMLN's Mauricio Funes. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment: Zablah's selection is controversial within 
ARENA, as some of his personal views break with ARENA 
positions.  For example, in the past, he has advocated 
undoing dollarization and returning to the Colon, and has 
argued for substantial increases to both pensions and the 
minimum wage.  Plus, only a few months have passed since 
Zablah flirted with running for President with a coalition of 
other parties.  However, he does appeal to the center, where 
ARENA badly needs help.  The addition of Zablah can only help 
Avila's campaign.  San Salvador's Universidad Tecnologica's 
(UTEC's) upcoming poll, due out by the end of October, should 
give an indication of the Zablah's effect on the race. 
GLAZER