VZCZCXRO0767
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPOD #0252/01 2820357
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O P 080357Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0973
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 1060

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000252 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MW
SUBJECT: RHETORIC OVER KOSOVO PUTS MONTENEGRO-SERBIA RELATIONS ON 
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY 
 
REF: PODGORICA 251 
 
PODGORICA 00000252  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Local media widely reported Serbian FM 
Jeremic's public warning to Montenegro against recognition of 
Kosovo. GoM leaders quickly rejected Jeremic's comments, stating 
that Montenegro will decide on recognition based solely upon its 
own national interests.  Opposition party leaders commented 
privately that Jeremic's comments will only worsen the already 
poor relationship between Montenegro and Serbia.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
------------------------ 
 
Jeremic warns Montenegro 
 
------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U) On October 7, local media widely reported Serbian 
Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic's public warning to Montenegro 
against recognizing Kosovo's independence.  Jeremic said that 
such a move would represent "a stab in the back."  Jeremic went 
on to say that Serbia "absolutely will not sit idle" if 
Podgorica recognizes Kosovo.  Recognition of Kosovo, he 
continued, cannot go without consequences, especially at this 
time.  Jeremic added that Serbia "does not want to make any 
threats against anyone, even though everyone in the region knows 
what that would mean. The Montenegrin government is well aware." 
Jeremic said that Serbia told Montenegrin officials in "a clear 
way" that "there will be no understanding of their potential 
decision to violate Serbia's sovereignty and territorial 
integrity". 
 
 
 
--------------------------- 
 
... and Djukanovic responds 
 
--------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) PM Djukanovic reacted quickly, telling reporters that 
Montenegro and Serbia clearly have divergent views on Kosovo. 
He said that Montenegro does not wish to inflict damage on any 
country but will act according to its own national interests, 
reflected by the last week's decision of the Parliament 
(reftel). 
 
 
 
¶4.  (U) Montenegrin President Vujanovic, quoted by Serbia's 
BETA, said that Jeremic's statement went beyond the bounds of 
diplomacy.  He added that Montenegro has carefully considered 
the issue of recognition, and has shown understanding of 
Serbia's views by delaying consideration of the question until 
now. 
 
 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
Political Parties Privately Concerned 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) POL specialist contacted political leaders to poll 
their reactions.  The party whip for the senior ruling party, 
Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), Miodrag Vukovic, told us 
that Jeremic's was reminiscent of Belgrade's rhetoric in the 
1990s. He challenged Jeremic to visit Pristina to understand the 
political reality there.  Movement for Change's (PzP) spokesman, 
Koca Pavlovic, said Jeremic's comments were unbalanced and 
counterproductive and that such views risk destabilizing the 
entire region.  Pavlovic asserted that Jeremic was exacerbating 
divisions within Montenegro and hindering the process of 
reconciliation following the independence referendum.   Serbian 
list leader Andrija Mandic declined to comment except to say 
that "the problem is in Montenegro." 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Quoting party leader Srdjan Milic, the Socialist 
People's Party (SNP) chief of staff, Rada Djurisic, said that 
Jeremic's statement was just the beginning of a further 
 
PODGORICA 00000252  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
deterioration of relations between Montenegro and Serbia.  He 
blamed the parliamentary vote, saying that it made the situation 
in Montenegro and the region even "more complicated."  At the 
same time, he added, the SNP does not want to "add fuel to the 
fire." 
 
 
 
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Comment 
 
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¶7.  (SBU) Comment:  The sharp public exchange between Jeremic 
and the GoM leadership is a further sign that Montenegro's 
recognition of Kosovo could be just around the corner. 
Politicians outside the coalition seemed surprised by the 
vehemence of Jeremic's rhetoric, generally portraying it as 
counterproductive to good bilateral relations.  At the same 
time, Jeremic's comments will now almost necessitate concrete 
steps by Serbia against Montenegro if it recognizes Kosovo, such 
as recalling its Ambassador from Podgorica. End Comment. 
MOORE