VZCZCXRO8926
RR RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHPF #0881/01 3041010
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301010Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0047
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 000881 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM CB
SUBJECT: ROYALIST PARTIES STRUGGLE TO FIND THEIR FUTURE 
 
This message is Sensitive But Unclassified. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  Fallout from the 2008 elections continues as the 
royalist parties face the retirement of their stars, defection from 
their ranks, and questions about their future.  Prince Norodom 
Ranariddh's retirement from politics has shaken his followers and 
led to defections from his namesake party, but many believe that the 
Prince's absence will be short-lived.  A return to politics may be 
on the Prince's horizon; whether he can turn that into a new future 
for the royalist movement remains to be seen.  Prime Minister Hun 
Sen will try to ensure that any future actions by the Prince or his 
former parties will serve to solidify his own Cambodian People's 
Party's (CPP) dominance.  END SUMMARY. 
 
ROYAL FAMILY ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL FROM POLITICS 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On October 13, Prince Norodom Sirivudh became the latest 
royal family member to announce his retirement.  He followed the 
lead of his nephew, Prince Norodom Ranariddh, who announced on 
October 2 that he had quit politics just days after returning to 
Cambodia from an 18-month self-exile.  Sirivudh told the media that 
the King Father, Norodom Sihanouk, wanted the royal family to 
abstain from politics in the future.  However, Poloff meetings with 
party faithful and independent observers reveal that many anticipate 
Ranariddh's retirement to be short-lived.  The Norodom Ranariddh 
Party (NRP) announced that it would continue to use the Prince's 
name and image into the next mandate, and a FUNCINPEC official told 
Poloff that the Prince had reached out to him in hopes of returning. 
 This echoes public statements by other government officials and 
civil society that Ranariddh may not yet be finished with politics. 
 
 
ROYALIST PARTIES BLEED MEMBERS 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) Both FUNCINPEC and the NRP have seen their membership 
dwindling drastically in recent weeks.  More than 20 officials from 
the NRP defected to the CPP following the announcement of 
Ranariddh's retirement.  Thav Kimhor, the party's former Deputy 
Secretary General, told the press he felt that NRP politics were no 
longer sustainable without their founder.  Koul Panha, Executive 
Director of the Committee for Free and Fair Elections in Cambodia 
(COMFREL), pointed out though that the CPP will not be an option for 
most royalist defectors.  In his opinion, the CPP only accepts 
members who bring some kind of a constituency with them.  Following 
their poor showing in the last election, many royalists lack that 
prerequisite. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Meanwhile, according to local press reports, about half of 
FUNCINPEC's members are threatening to leave their party for the NRP 
in frustration over the lack of opportunities available to them in 
the new government.  Ok Socheat, advisor to the President of 
FUNCINPEC, said that the party had proposed 300 slots for its 
members, but that the CPP had only allocated 59 positions, plus two 
advisors.  Puthea Hang, the Executive Director of the NGO Neutral 
and Impartial Committee for Free and Fair Elections in Cambodia 
(NICFEC), speculated that the defectors hoped to gain some of the 
positions not yet allocated to the NRP.  NRP Secretary General You 
Hockry denied that so many FUNCINPEC members were seeking to join 
his party, although he admitted that defectors would likely approach 
Ranariddh directly for support rather than him. 
 
LEADERSHIP QUESTIONS IN FUNCINPEC 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) When asked about the future of FUNCINPEC, Ok Socheat opined 
that without a change in its leadership, the party would remain 
divided and become irrelevant.  The party is split into three 
factions - those loyal to Secretary General Nhiek Bun Chhay, those 
loyal to party President Keo Puth Rasmey, and those threatening to 
defect.  Socheat added that Nhiek Bun Chhay feared Prime Minister 
Hun Sen too much. He said that Hun Sen holds the 2007 raid of a 
methamphetamine lab on land allegedly belonging to Bun Chhay over 
him.  Socheat explained that if Bun Chhay stands up to the ruling 
CPP, Hun Sen could bring charges against him for drug trafficking. 
 
 
NRP IN "WAIT AND SEE" MODE 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) NRP Secretary General You Hockry explained to Poloff that 
he had no big plans for his party at this time.  He indicated that 
the Prince had agreed not to act in opposition to the government as 
a condition of his pardon.  It is not clear whether Ranariddh made 
this deal verbally or in writing.  You Hockry feared that if he took 
any steps that the CPP could view as opposing the Prime Minister, 
such as siding with the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) on any issue, 
Ranariddh and the NRP would blame him for violating the Prince's 
pardon agreement.  He said that his immediate responsibility is to 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000881  002 OF 002 
 
 
maintain the structure of the party, and that he could not move in a 
new direction until he knew Ranariddh's future plans. 
 
ROYALIST RECOVERY? 
------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) Ok Socheat of FUNCINCPEC proposed that in order for the 
royalist movement to continue as a viable political entity: 1) 
Prince Ranariddh must return to lead, 2) the NRP and FUNCINPEC must 
unite, and 3) the single party must focus on growing their support 
base from the provinces where they are strongest.  He insisted that 
Prince Ranariddh intends to reenter politics and wants to lead 
FUNCINPEC again, if Hun Sen allows it and Nhiek Bun Chhay quits the 
party.  He added that while the unification of the royalist parties 
could be difficult given the bad blood over the Prince's actions 
when he quit FUNCINPEC in 2006, such reconciliation is necessary. 
(Note:  Ranariddh sold FUNCINPEC's headquarters upon leaving the 
party and allegedly failed to turn over all proceeds to the party. 
In the end, the dispute over finances was resolved but not before a 
court sentenced Ranariddh to 18 months in jail for criminal fraud. 
End Note.)  Koul Panha of COMFREL said he sees Ranariddh rejoining 
the NRP, rather than FUNCINPEC, and attempting to unite the 
royalists under its banner. 
 
SHAPING THE OPPOSITION 
---------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) COMMENT:  The royalist parties are in their weakest 
position to date, and unless Ranariddh somehow manages to return to 
the political game and unite them, they are past being significant 
players in Cambodian politics.  However, given that the Prince's 
pardon agreement has granted Hun Sen sway over his actions, any 
return to politics would likely serve the needs of the CPP, not 
necessarily FUNCINPEC or the NRP.  The Prime Minister might allow 
Ranariddh to unite the royalist parties to act in coalition as a 
buffer to CPP's manifest faults and as a foil to the SRP, which 
means that FUNCINPEC and the NRP face a limited future at best.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
 
CAMPBELL