VZCZCXRO3738
OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #1316/01 2842034
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 102034Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8597
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001316 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: ELECTION 2008:  WHAT'S ON THEIR MINDS 
 
REF:  A.  OTTAWA 1300   B.  OTTAWA 1314 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The global economic crisis has made the economy 
the defining issue in the 2008 election campaign, with the 
environment, healthcare, and crime tacking a distinct backseat. 
Afghanistan and foreign policy are not under real discussion.  Polls 
continue to fluctuate, but the Conservatives remain in the lead, 
while Liberal leader Stephane Dion has taken new hits.  Polls on 
October 14 will close late, with most voters going to the polls in 
the evening after work, so results will likely not be available 
until at least 10 p.m., or even the following morning.  A new 
minority government is the most likely outcome.  End summary. 
 
ECONOMIC ANXIETIES TO THE FORE 
------------------------------ 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) At the outset of the 2008 election campaign, most 
expectations were that the economy, the environment, and health care 
would be the top three issues, with the Liberals broadcasting ahead 
of time that the focus of their campaign would be their "Green 
Shift" carbon tax proposal.   A September 1 poll had indicated that 
33 percent of Canadians felt that the economy was worsening, and 20 
percent of respondents cited the economy and jobs as their top 
issue.  Forty-five percent picked Prime Minister Stephen Harper as 
the best leader to deal with tough economic times, compared to 21 
percent for Liberal Party leader Dion.  The Conservatives have 
emphasized a prudent economic stewardship that will preclude major 
new spending or tax cuts, and its $8 billion platform is half the 
$16 billion promised by the Liberals and the $51 billion by the NDP. 
 
 
¶3. (U) The environment -- at 15 percent -- and healthcare 
(especially a shortage of doctors and nurses) - at 14 percent - were 
also significant issues in the September poll, while violent crime 
remained a special concern in western Canada and in urban ridings 
nationwide.  Tackling crime has long been a major focus of the 
Conservative agenda, including cracking down on youth crime, gangs, 
and drugs.  Promises to toughen sentences for youth offenders appear 
to have backfired on the Conservatives in Quebec, along with 
concerns that the Conservatives would cut spending on the arts 
(despite the Conservatives claims to the contrary). 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The global financial crisis -- in particular in the 
economy of its paramount trading partner, the United States -- has 
now accentuated anxiety and made how to deal with the economy the 
defining election issue.  It was the key topic in the leaders' 
debates (ref a) and their subsequent campaign speeches and media 
interviews.  Dion's difficulties in understanding a question in 
English on the subject in a taped television interview in Halifax - 
and his request to start the interview again -- on October 9 have 
already become a new "classic" campaign blunder, with the 
Conservatives underscoring that a Prime Minister does not get 
"do-overs" and Harper emphasizing that, ultimately, the Liberals 
have no real economic solutions.  Dion's rating for trustworthiness 
and competence dropped by nine percentage point in the October 9 
CPAC-Nanos daily election tracking, although Harper also lost six 
points -- with New Democratic Party leader Jack Layton gaining an 
additional six points and coming within 10 points of Harper's once 
commanding advantage. 
 
Afghanistan off the table? 
-------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Despite the release on October 9 of estimates by 
Parliament's budget officer that Canada's Afghan commitment to 2011 
could exceed $18 billion, the role of Canadian Forces in Kandahar 
has not emerged as a campaign issue.  The figure is more than twice 
Qhas not emerged as a campaign issue.  The figure is more than twice 
the $8 billion the government had previously predicted, and 
represents up to $1,500 per Canadian household over a ten year 
period. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Conservative promises on Senate reform, Arctic 
sovereignty, and a unified Canada have also not resonated with 
voters. 
 
POLLING 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  In the October 9 CPAC-Nanos poll, the Conservatives 
retained 33 pct support, while the Liberals dropped to 27 pct (with 
a margin of accuracy of 2.8 pct) and the NDP moving up two more 
points to 22 pct.  The number of undecideds also grew by three 
points, to 17 pct.  Indications are that voter turn-out may be low 
this year, which traditionally benefits the incumbent party. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Voting on October 14 will be staggered, so that all 
polling booths nationwide close about the same time (9:30-10:00 pm 
EST), with strict control over results in individual ridings so that 
votes on the east coast do not influence voters on the west coast. 
The large majority of voters tend to vote in the early evening. 
 
OTTAWA 00001316  002 OF 002 
 
 
Especially in such a close race, it will be late on October 14 or 
possibly the morning on October 15 before any party can claim 
victory.  All indications are that neither the Conservatives nor the 
Liberals have any real hope of winning a majority.  Canada appears 
poised to face yet another minority government, with all its 
inherent instabilities and Parliamentary "dysfunctionality." 
 
 
WILKINS