VZCZCXRO0570
PP RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #1308/01 2812112
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 072112Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8584
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001308 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CA
SUBJECT: ELECTION 2008: RACE NARROWS WITH ONE WEEK TO GO 
 
REF: A. OTTAWA 1293 
     ¶B. TORONTO 288 
     ¶C. OTTAWA 1258 
     ¶D. OTTAWA 1216 
     ¶E. OTTAWA 632 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Canada's major political parties have 
launched their final push to Election Day on October 14. 
Although the Conservative government appears certain to be 
re-elected, whether it will win a majority or another 
minority mandate is less clear.  The apparent slowing of 
Conservative momentum, the corresponding resurgence of the 
separatist Bloc in Quebec, and the prospect of strategic 
voting by those seeking to block a Conservative majority make 
the shape of the next House of Commons unpredictable.  The 
remaining nine days will be crucial in firming up voting 
intentions, and the parties will likely expend the greatest 
part of their advertising budget on a last blitz to move the 
polls.  End summary. 
 
THE LAST-MINUTE RUSH 
--------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The majority of Canadians voters usually do not tune 
in until the second half of an election campaign.  Successive 
studies show that up to 20 percent of Canadian voters wait 
until the final week to make up their minds, while 
approximately 14 percent decide on Election Day itself.  This 
encourages a peak in political advertising in the final week 
of the campaign as parties try to nail down these wavering 
voters.  The fact that this election will fall on the day 
after Canada's Thanksgiving holiday, however, may limit 
politicians' ability to grab voters' attention. 
 
THE POLLS 
--------- 
 
¶3. (U)  As of October 6, most pollsters showed the 
Conservatives winning a minority government, but slipping 
from a high of 41 percent (majority territory) in the second 
week of the 36 day campaign.  These polls peg Conservative 
support at between 32 and 37 per cent nationally, at or below 
the 36 percent of the popular vote the party won in 2006. 
They attribute the decline to an erosion of support in 
Quebec, rising anxiety over the economy, and criticism of PM 
Harper's "steady as she goes" approach to turmoil in 
international financial markets.  While the race appears to 
be narrowing, however, Harper retains a decisive edge as 
voters' top choice for Prime Minister (34 percent to Dion's 
20 percent), and leads all his rivals with an overall 
leadership index score of 95 percent on trust, competence and 
national vision compared to 51 percent for Dion. 
 
¶4. (U) Mainstream polls indicate Liberal support between 23 
and 31 per cent, at or below the 30 percent of the vote the 
party won in the 2006 election.  The New Democratic Party 
(NDP) appears to have picked up some momentum, rising from 19 
to 21 percent over three days in one tracking poll, slightly 
ahead of the 17 percent it won in 2006.  The Green Party 
meanwhile polls between 10 and 12 percent.  Ipsos suggests 
that the Bloc Quebecois surged eight points since last week 
to 40 percent in Quebec largely on the strength of falling 
Conservative support in that province. 
 
OTHER MEASURES 
-------------- 
 
¶5. (U) In addition to mainstream pollsters, election stock 
market indexes and blogs are providing alternative tools to 
gauge likely voter preferences.  The University of British 
Columbia's non-profit Election Stock Market permits buyers to 
purchase "shares" in the political parties, betting on which 
party they believe will win.  "Investors" can wager a minimum 
of $25 and a maximum of $1,000.  The index in 2006 beat 3 of 
4 major national pollsters in predicting the final election 
results.  Just one week before the election, it puts 
Conservative support at 45 percent with 141 seats, the 
Liberals at 26 percent with 79 seats, the NDP at 18 percent 
QLiberals at 26 percent with 79 seats, the NDP at 18 percent 
and 42 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois with 14 percent 
nationally and 43 seats. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Intense media focus on daily poll fluctuations can 
become "meaningless noise," making it difficult to discern 
the larger national picture.  The regional nature of many 
races, tight three-way contests in key urban constituencies 
in the battleground provinces of Ontario and British 
Columbia, and the parties' ability to get out their vote will 
 
OTTAWA 00001308  002 OF 002 
 
 
be essential factors in determining Canada's next government. 
 The opposition vote is fragmented, opening up opportunities 
for strategic voting and last-minute switching, especially by 
Green supporters.  The effect of the timing of the holiday 
weekend and the rate of voter participation (64.7 percent in 
2006 and expected to be lower in this election) are also 
unknown, making seat predictions hard to call.  However, if 
the current polls are accurate, the final results could 
mirror the outcome of the 2006 election, and ultimately 
reflect the essential stagnation in the polls over the past 
two and-a-half years.  End comment. 
 
Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at 
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada 
 
WILKINS