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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002714 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS USTR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KIRF PTER USTR IN
SUBJECT: DATES FIXED FOR FIVE STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 2378/2289/2265/PREVIOUS 
     ¶B. NEW DELHI 2110/1765/PREVIOUS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: The Election Commission announced that 
state legislative elections will be held between November 14 
and December 4 in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, 
Mizoram and Rajasthan.  The Election Commission deferred a 
decision on dates for state assembly elections in Jammu and 
Kashmir.  While anti-incumbency, inflation and terrorism will 
no doubt be factors in these polls, Indian elections are 
mostly decided on local issues, which differ from state to 
state.  These state assembly elections have assumed greater 
importance because they are seen as a dry run for 
parliamentary elections due before May 2009 and a barometer 
of how BJP and the Congress Party stack up against each other 
in Hindi-speaking heartland of the country.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) On October 14, the Election Commission (EC) set dates 
from November 14 through December 4 for state assembly 
elections in five states scheduled for polls this year.  The 
EC deferred a decision on fixing dates for state assembly 
elections in Jammu and Kashmir, a state which witnessed 
heightened tension (Ref A) this summer over a land use issue 
relating to Hindu pilgrims.  (Note: We will report septel on 
debate regarding timing of Jammu and Kashmir elections.) In 
the five states going to the polls, votes will be counted and 
results announced on December 8.  The election timetable is: 
 
-- Chhattisgarh: November 14 and 20 
-- Madhya Pradesh: November 25 
-- Delhi: November 29 
-- Mizoram: November 29 
-- Rajasthan: December 4 
 
¶3.  (U) The Congress Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP) welcomed the announcement of polling dates.  Although 
smaller regional parties may play a spoiler role by splitting 
the vote in some constituencies, four of the five states will 
have the two national parties pitted against each other in 
mostly head-to-head contests. In the tiny northeastern state 
of Mizoram the contest will be between the Mizo National 
Front (MNF) and the Congress Party. 
 
¶4.  (U) The BJP is in power in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and 
Chhattisgarh, the Congress in Delhi and the MNF in Mizoram. 
Each of these parties will have to defend against an 
anti-incumbency factor, which is generally strong in Indian 
elections.  The principal election issues around the country 
today are inflation and concerns over terrorism.  The 
increased public concern over terrorism is likely to be more 
of an issue in Delhi and Rajasthan, both of which have 
experienced high visibility terrorist attacks this year.  A 
wild card this year will be "delimitation."  The redrawing of 
constituency boundaries by an expert commission has changed 
elections districts, in some cases quite radically.  It has 
forced many incumbents and challengers to seek new 
constituencies or alter their message to appeal to a 
different mix of an electorate. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) While anti-incumbency, inflation and terrorism will 
be factors in these elections -- to a greater or lesser 
extent depending on the state -- Indian elections are mostly 
decided on local issues, which differ from state to state. 
In Rajasthan, an important variable will be the residual 
impact of tension earlier this over the Gujjar community's 
demand for economic and political preferences (Ref B).  In 
Madhya Pradesh, GOI Commerce Minister Kamal Nath is eager to 
lead the Congress Party's campaign but there are other 
leaders of stature who may undercut him.  Even if he is not 
projected as the Congress Party's chief ministerial 
candidate, he will still play an important part in the 
campaign.  Obervers will be looking to see whether Uttar 
Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati and former BJP breakaway Uma 
Bharti can each muster enough support in certain pockets in 
 
NEW DELHI 00002714  002 OF 002 
 
 
Madhya Pradesh to bag a few seats and/or to tilt the results 
to one or the other national party.  In Chhattisgarh, an 
important issue is likely to be the active naxalite/maoist 
presence in the state.  In Mizoram, the MNF's incumbent chief 
minister is battling corruption allegations.  Congress leader 
Veerappa Moily said that his party would campaign in 
BJP-ruled states on the issues of corruption, ineffective 
governance, and deteriorating law and order. 
 
¶6.  (U) While announcing the election dates, the EC also 
noted that a "Model Code of Conduct" would come into effect 
immediately.  The code of conduct, which is implemented 
before any Indian state or national elections, prohibits the 
incumbent government from taking any major policy or program 
actions that are intended to influence the electorate.  The 
code also specifies in detail the strict funding and 
campaigning rules to be followed by the contestants.  Given 
the communal clashes in recent weeks in some parts of the 
country, the EC also saw it fit to highlight the following 
excerpt from the model code of conduct: "There shall be no 
appeal to caste or communal feelings for securing votes. 
Mosques, Churches, Temples or other places of worship shall 
not be used as forum for election propaganda." 
 
¶7.  (U) Some other factoids about the assembly elections in 
these five states: 
 
              Voters  Total  Schedule Caste/    Polling 
              (mill)  Seats    Tribe Seats      Stations 
 
Chhattisgarh    15.2     90         30            20,952 
Madhya Pradesh  35.7    230         82            46,812 
Mizoram          0.6     40         39             1,026 
Rajasthan       36.2    200         59            42,212 
Delhi           10.9     70         12            10,849 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Comment:  Since a great deal of political power 
rests with the states under India's constitution, state 
assembly elections are always fiercely fought.  The coming 
elections, especially in the four larger states, have assumed 
even greater importance because they are seen as a dry run 
for the parliamentary elections and a barometer of how BJP 
and the Congress Party stack up against each other in a 
battle for control in the Hindi-speaking heartland of the 
country. 
WHITE