VZCZCXRO9210
PP RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #2520/01 3041514
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301514Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7486
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA  PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 002520 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI SO ET
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: IGAD SUMMIT ISSUES TIMELINE IN EFFORT TO 
ENERGIZE TFG 
 
REF: NAIROBI 2469 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Like day one (reftel), the October 29 
closing session of the IGAD Extraordinary Summit on Somalia 
featured protracted, closed-door negotiations, and pointed 
criticism of the Somalia Transitional Federal Government 
(TFG). The Summit communique (para 9), established a timeline 
for the TFG, and an IGAD representative to monitor its 
implementation in an effort to energize the process as the 
TFG's mandate winds down.  Although the speeches and the 
communique were a pointed rebuke to the TFG, TFG President 
Abdullahi Yusuf survived Ethiopian and TFG parliamentarian 
unhappiness (see septel on A/S Frazer's post-Summit 
conversation with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles). Although 
it was hoped that the event would further the Djibouti 
Process, some passages in the communique suggest that IGAD 
was endeavoring to establish itself as a rival to the UN's 
Special Representative for Somalia (SRSG).  End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Continued, closed-door discussions with TFG 
President Yusuf and the hammering out of a communique delayed 
planned speeches by President Kibaki, Prime Minister Meles, 
IGAD, AU, UN, and other representatives by more than two 
hours on the last day of the IGAD Extraordinary Summit, 
October 29. When the leaders finally convened, their speeches 
were openly critical of the TFG.  In his opening remarks, 
Kenyan President Kibaki noted that the TFG "faces serious 
challenges," and urged it to "end the deadlock; compromise; 
work together." 
 
¶3. (SBU) Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles was much blunter. 
The TFG was "paralyzed," he said, and a "failure in all 
areas."  There was a "lack of harmony" among its leaders.  In 
remarks at an IGAD dinner on October 28, Meles had termed the 
October 28 - 29 Summit a "last-ditch effort to reverse a 
rapidly deteriorating situation."  Meles termed the October 
26 Djibouti declaration of an intent to establish a unity 
government and cessation of hostilities agreement, however, a 
"major achievement," but cautioned that "much would depend on 
the TFI's readiness to grab the bull by the horns." 
 
¶4. (SBU) Kibaki's and Meles's open expressions of 
dissatisfaction were seconded by many of the transitional 
parliamentarians present. Parliamentarians used their October 
28 session to vent their unhappiness with the government, 
particularly President Abdullahi Yusuf. Speaker Sheikh Aden 
Mohamed Nur "Madobe" continued to be unrelenting on the 
subject of Yusuf in his meetings with IGAD representatives. 
The discussions with parliament became so heated, observers 
told us, that IGAD members decided to issue the final 
communique before lunch on the final day, in order to avoid a 
second, unpleasant session with the members of parliament, 
which was to have taken place in the afternoon. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Those present at the session told us that President 
Yusuf was defiant in the face of Ethiopian pressure and the 
parliamentarians' dissatisfaction.  Yusuf reportedly 
maintained that the October 26 declaration of a government of 
national unity nd cessation of hostilities agreement were of 
no consequence.  He asked for support in establishing a 
well-equipped and armed militia to contain the growing 
instability in Somalia, and he insisted that the TFG's 
mandate should be extended, now, for another three years. 
Yusuf appeared to have boycotted the October 28 IGAD state 
dinner and he did not speak at the October 29 heads of state 
session. Prime Minister "Nur Adde," according to all 
accounts, played almost no role in the IGAD event, although 
he was present.  Many speculated that he may have tired of 
the job, and was hoping to be replaced. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The final communique (para 9), is evidence of 
IGAD's, and particularly Ethiopia's, frustration with the 
TFG.  It takes note of the "profound paralysis" in Somalia 
and the "near hopelessness" there and "complete failure to 
establish institutions of governance only nine months before 
the end of the transitional period."  In a slap at President 
Yusuf, it regrets the "lack of unity and unhelpful 
competition" among the leadership, which it terms the 
"principal factor that has allowed the deterioration of the 
security situation."  Yusuf did sign the communique and some 
have noted that his signature indicates agreement with this 
sentiment. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Finally, the communique charts an ambitious timeline 
in seven areas for the TFG.  Among them: a new cabinet must 
be appointed by November 14, progress reports must be 
 
NAIROBI 00002520  002 OF 004 
 
 
submitted every two months to the IGAD Council of Ministers, 
the IGAD Assembly will meet every six months to review 
progress, and a facilitator will monitor the TFG's progress 
in such areas as establishing a Benadir Administration and 
drafting a constitution.  Most tellingly, paragraph sixteen 
names IGAD as the "anchor of all efforts in relation to 
Somalia." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The communique registers Ethiopia's frustration with 
its neighbor, and it attempts to assign homework to its 
delinquent government, but it is unlikely that the additional 
pressure will improve the performance of the TFG.  Continued 
serious personal differences among the leadership will not 
disappear, in spite of the blunt criticism leveled by IGAD 
members, and Yusuf's survival as President will only 
encourage him to remain uncooperative as the TFG enters its 
final ten months.  In the meantime, it is unclear at this 
juncture how the UN's Special Representative Ould-Abdallah 
will function against the background of renewed assertiveness 
by IGAD. 
 
Communique Text 
--------------- 
 
¶9. (U) Begin communique text: 
 
(Heading) 
IGAD 
Intergovernmental Authority on Development 
 
Declaration of the 13th Extra-Ordinary Session of the IGAD 
Assembly of Heads of State and Government 
 
Nairobi, Kenya, October 29th, 2008 
 
The IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government held an 
Extraordinary Meeting in Nairobi on 29th October 2008 under 
the Chairmanship of H.E Meles Zenawi, Prime Minister of the 
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and Current Chairman 
of IGAD to consider the political, security and humanitarian 
situation in Somalia. The Assembly was attended by H.E. 
Ismael Omar Guelleh, President of the Republic of Djibouti, 
H.E. Mwai Kibaki. President of the Republic of Kenya, H.E. 
Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, President of the Republic of Uganda, 
H.E. Abdullahi Yusuf, President of the Transitional Federal 
Government (TFG) of Somalia, H.E. Salva Kiir Mayardit, 1st 
Vice President of the Republic of Sudan. 
 
Honorable Germain Niyoyankana, Minister of National Defense 
and Former Combatants, Republic of Burundi participated at 
the Meeting in Burundi's capacity as troop contributing 
country to AMISOM.  The Assembly was preceded by the 29th 
Extraordinary Meeting of the IGAD Council of Ministers, held 
in Nairobi on 28th October 2008.  The Assembly was briefed by 
H.E. Erastus Mwencha, Deputy Chairperson of the African Union 
Commission, H.E Ahmedou Ould Abdellah, Special Representative 
of the UN Secretary General to Somalia, and Senator Mario 
Rafaelli, Italian Government Special Envoy for Somalia, 
representing the Chair of IGAD Partners Forum (IPF). 
 
The Assembly also held intensive consultations with the 
Leadership of the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs) 
and Members of the Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP) of 
Somalia. 
 
After deliberating at length on the prevailing political and 
security situation in Somalia, the Assembly adopted and 
issuedthe following Declaration. 
 
We the Members of the IGAD Assembly, 
 
¶1. Take note of the statements made by the representative of 
the African Union, the United Nations, and the IPF. 
 
¶2. Take note also of the remarks and submissions made by the 
Leaderships of the TFIs and Members of the TFP of Somalia. 
 
¶3. Express profound concern regarding the political paralysis 
in Somalia contributing to the continuing deterioration of 
the security situation in the country as well as to the near 
hopelessness of the existing situation with respect to 
achieving the objectives of the transition period as 
evidenced in the complete failure to establish institutions 
 
NAIROBI 00002520  003 OF 004 
 
 
of governance only nine months before the end of the 
transitional period. 
 
¶4. Regret the lack of unity and unhelpful competition among 
the leadership of the TFIs as their working at cross purposes 
has been the principal factor that has allowed the 
deterioration of the security situation in the country, and 
led to lack of progress in the national reconciliation effort. 
 
¶5. Call upon the international community to support the 
strengthening of the TFIs through capacity building and 
provision of technical assistance. 
 
¶6. Call further on the international community to provide the 
urgently needed humanitarian assistance to alleviate the 
suffering of thousands of the displaced Somali population. 
 
¶7. Note that delays and prevarications of the international 
community in its response to repeated calls and appeals by 
IGAD, the African Union, and the United Nations to strengthen 
and provide the necessary support to AMISOM had a direct 
consequence and impact on the political as well as security 
developments in Somalia. 
 
¶8. Note further the increased incidents of piracy along the 
Somali coastline and welcomes the United Nations Security 
Council resolutions 1816 and 1838 authorizing the use of 
force to combat the vice. 
 
¶9. Commend the Governments of Uganda and Burundi for 
contributing troops to AMISOM and the Government of Ethiopia 
for deploying its troops to Somalia under bilateral 
arrangement with the TFG, and salutes the AMISOM and Ethiopia 
troops for their commitment to fulfill their tasks under 
difficult conditions. 
 
¶10. Welcome the agreement signed in Djibouti on the 26th 
October 2008 between the TFG and the Alliance for the 
Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) on the Implementation of 
cessation of armed confrontation. 
 
¶11. Welcome further the agreement on the formation of a unity 
government of Somalia based on the principle of 4.5, and an 
inclusive Parliament. 
 
¶12. Urge the TFG and the ARS to implement fully and in good 
faith the Agreement reached in Djibouti on 26th October 2008 
and call upon the Members of TFP o endorse the same without 
any delay. 
 
¶13. Decide that the TFIs shall implement the following as per 
the following timelines: 
 
i) Appoint a Cabinet on the basis of the previous resolution 
of Parliament of 11October 2008, within 15 days of the 
issuance of this Declaration. 
 
ii) Establish a Joint Security Committee (JSC) and its 
subcommittees as stipulated in the Djibouti Agreement that 
shall be operational effective 10November 2008 but not later 
than 25 November 2008. 
 
iii) Establish the Banadir administration as stipulated in 
the Addis Ababa Roadmap within 15 days of issuance of this 
Declaration. 
 
iv) Finalize the drafting of the Somali Constitution, enact 
electoral and parties law within 6 months of the issuance of 
this Declaration. 
 
v) The issue of the extension of the transitional period 
might be considered in accordance with the provisions of the 
Transitional Federal Charter (TFC) on the basis of the 
progress made on the ground. 
 
vi) Submit progress reports of the implementation (of the 
above decisions) every 2 months to the IGAD Council of 
Ministers meeting, which shall review the progress made. 
 
vii) IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government to meet 
every 6 months to review the progress made in the 
implementation of these decisions. 
 
¶14. Decide to establish mechanism headed by a Facilitator to 
help monitor the implementation of the above decisions and 
report to the IGAD Council of Ministers and the Assembly of 
 
NAIROBI 00002520  004 OF 004 
 
 
Heads of State and Government on the progress 
made. 
 
¶15. Decide also that there must be a coordination mechanism 
among the IGAD states in the area of institutional and 
capacity building. 
 
¶16. Decide further that the anchor of all the efforts in 
relation to Somalia must be IGAD. 
 
¶17. Reiterate that in default of the above, the IGAD Assembly 
shall meet and review its options, as it will not be business 
as usual. 
 
¶18. Urge the United Nations to take expeditious measures to 
fulfill its share of responsibilities as stipulated in the 
Djibouti Agreement signed on 19th August, 2008 and its 
modalities of Implementation as agreed upon by the parties, 
in particular the request to cover the financial needs of the 
10,000 strong police force starting from 5th November 2008. 
 
¶19. Recommend to the Parties and the Special Representative 
of the Secretary General of the United Nations for Somalia to 
be flexible in terms of modalities and timelines of 
implementation of the Djibouti Agreement(s) by the parties. 
 
¶20. Thank the government and the people of Kenya for hosting 
the Extraordinary Assembly of Heads of State and Government. 
 
¶21. Decide to remain seized of the matter. 
 
Done at Nairobi Kenya, on 29th day of October in the year 2008 
 
(signed) 
 
H.E. Meles Zenawi, Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic 
Republic of Ethiopia and Current Chairman of IGAD 
 
H.E. Ismael Ornar Guelleh, President of the Republic of 
Djibouti 
 
H.E. Mwai Kibaki, President of the Republic of Kenya 
 
H.E. Abdullahi Yusuf, President of the Transitional Federal 
Government (TFG) of Somalia 
 
H.E. Salva Kiir Mayardit, 1sf Vice President of the Republic 
of Sudan 
 
H.E. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, President of the Republic of 
Uganda 
 
End communique text. 
RANNEBERGER