P 310455Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6410
INFO SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY

UNCLAS LUSAKA 001054 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: ZAMBIA ELECTION DAY REPORT #3:  AN UNREMARKABLE 
DAY OF POLLING 
 
REF: A. LUSAKA 1053 
     ¶B. LUSAKA 1054 
 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
¶1.  (U)  Summary:  Zambia's October 30 elections were 
unremarkable -- peaceful, orderly, and without violence. 
Turnout was low; estimates range from 50 percent to less than 
25 percent.  Low turnout tends to favor incumbents, and post 
believes Acting President Banda should benefit.  The 
Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) made some missteps:  its 
failure to deliver replacement voter registration cards, for 
example, will be a hotly discussed topic in the aftermath of 
the election.  Life in Lusaka has returned to normal as 
Zambians wait patiently for results, due within hours or 
days.  End summary. 
 
Unremarkable (just the way we want it) 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U)  International and local media and observers report 
extremely peaceful and orderly behavior at election stations 
throughout Zambia.  Embassy teams confirmed these reports and 
were impressed by ECZ staff professionalism by and large. 
However, some smaller rural stations encountered "human 
capacity" constraints, but clearly no malfeasance. 
Apparently heeding the October 29 entreaties by (separately 
and at their respective final rallies) both UPND candidate 
Hakainde Hichilema and the PF,s Michael Sata to eschew 
aggression and accept the election results, opposition 
supporters remained calm; there were no reports of violence 
as of 8:00 pm local time. 
 
Mistakes Fuel Suspicions that will Linger 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U)  According to Zambian media reports, voting was 
extended beyond the 6:00 pm closing in many parts of Kitwe in 
the Copperbelt.  Kitwe was the locus of much complaining by 
opposition parties about replacement voter registration cards 
during the day.  Voters in Kitwe who had followed ECZ 
instructions to secure replacement cards were nonetheless 
turned away because the new cards had not been distributed. 
The ECZ delivered some of the &missing8 Kitwe voter cards 
from Lusaka by helicopter in the afternoon. 
 
¶4.  (U)  An unscientific canvassing of a few working-class 
Lusakans showed that most had not voted because they had lost 
their voter registration cards and failed to request a new 
one as instructed by the ECZ.  These potential voters are 
Michael Sata,s core constituency.  These Lusaka observations 
could be further evidence of haste-induced ECZ missteps (or, 
much less likely, a conscious campaign by ECZ to 
disenfranchise some voters), but emboffs believe many 
Zambians simply misplaced their cards since 2006 and never 
got around to applying for new ones.  Either way, 
post-election diatribes about the cards are a certainty. 
 
Low turnout:  Is it the heat or the humility? 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U)  Embassy observer teams (who all told visited scores 
of polling stations) estimate that turnout was approximately 
50 percent.  Zambian news broadcasts paint a more pessimistic 
picture.  Low turnout typically favors incumbent parties -- 
which would tip the balance toward Acing President Banda, but 
anecdotal observation gives Sata credible support even with 
the disappointing turnout. 
 
¶6.  (U)  According to national broadcaster ZNBC, in Western 
Province voting proceeded at a slow pace throughout the day. 
Zambian television journalists said voters attributed the low 
turnout to both &the heat8 and widespread loss of voter 
registration cards.  In the more remote and isolated 
Northwest and Luapula provinces, turnout was particularly 
low.  In several Northwest Province polling stations shown on 
the national evening TV news, less than 25 percent of 
registered voters cast ballots.  Luapula was worse still ) 
one polling station recorded only 505 voters out of more than 
10,900 registered voters.  In major towns in Southern 
Province participation was higher, particularly in the 
morning.  Lines had formed at polling stations in Choma by 
5:00 am, an hour before the polls opened. 
 
An anti-climactic denouement 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U)  By early evening, vehicular and pedestrian traffic 
and daily activity in Lusaka had returned to normal.  Police 
and military headquarters, the Ministry of Defence, and State 
House all appeared to be closed for the night. 
International and local news moved stories about the conflict 
in Eastern DRC to the front.  Embassy teams are witnessing 
vote counts and thus far report few if any indications of 
vote rigging or egregious departure from ECZ protocols. 
Emboffs will try to verify posted results as a deterrent to 
"creative accounting."  Embassy teams will spend the next 
several hours observing vote counting, tabulation, and in 
some cases transportation of voting materials.  Post expects 
initial release of results on October 31 and a winner could 
be declared by November 1.  The presidential inauguration 
will take place within 24 hours of the Chief Justice's 
declaration. 
 
BOOTH