VZCZCXRO2458
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #1033/01 2971349
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231349Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6386
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 001033 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: ZAMBIAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE TIGHTENS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  New polling data suggest that opposition leader 
Michael Sata has nudged ahead in the Zambian presidential race.  The 
poll, however, is based on a relatively small sample size that may 
not adequately capture the opinions of Zambia's rural population. 
The poll reinforces other anecdotal information that indicates the 
race between Sata and Vice President Rupiah Banda, the previously 
presumed front-runner, has tightened.  Had the Electoral Commission 
of Zambia (ECZ) fulfilled its legal requirement to conduct 
continuous voter registration, the swell of younger voters might 
have given Sata a more convincing lead over Banda.  Recent incidents 
of political violence point to heightened tension and warn of 
additional isolated incidents of civil unrest.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Sata:  The (Mis)Leading Candidate? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On October 30, Zambians will elect a leader to replace 
President Mwanawasa, who passed away on August 19 after suffering a 
stroke.  Four candidates will compete on polling day, in a 
first-past-the-post, simple majority system.  The aspirants include 
Vice President and "Acting President" Rupiah Banda (Movement for 
Multiparty Democracy, MMD), Michael Sata (Patriotic Front, PF), 
Hakainde Hichilema (United Party for National Development, UPND), 
and Godfrey Miyanda (Heritage Party, HP).  Miyanda gleaned less than 
two percent of the vote in 2006 and is not considered a contender. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The progress of the three leading candidates has been 
difficult to gauge in the absence of polling data (three polls 
presaged the 2006 presidential election; two accurately predicted 
the outcome).  According to the yet-to-be-released results of a poll 
by the Steadman Group, a Kenyan based market information company, 
Sata may be leading.  Over 42 percent of the pollees said that if 
elections were held today (October 11-15), they would vote for Sata, 
compared to 29 percent for Banda and 17 percent for Hichilema. 
Those polled identified leadership experience and honesty as the two 
most important characteristics in deciding how to vote. 
 
¶4. (SBU) In response to the question, "If elections were to be held 
today, which candidate would you vote for?" the Steadman Group 
received the following responses by province (in percentages): 
 
               Sata       Banda      Hichilema 
               ----       -----      --------- 
Central        33         33          23 
Copperbelt     39         25          11 
Eastern        52         31          6 
Luapula        65         12          3 
Lusaka         45         26          14 
Northern       60         16          11 
Northwestern   23         28          20 
Southern       10         33          44 
Western        13         37          23 
 
¶5. (SBU) The results, which will be released on October 23, may not 
be based on a sample size large enough to be statistically 
significant, nor do they likely capture the opinions of Zambia's 
rural populations, which form the base of MMD's support.  Although 
Steadman conducted the poll in each of Zambia's nine provinces, this 
only amounts to about 100 interviews per province--presumably 
residents of provincial towns and cities, who may not adequately 
reflect the views of "rural" voters.  It seems most unlikely that 
Sata's popularity in Eastern Province (Banda's home province) runs 
at 52 percent, over twenty percentage points above Banda, 
particularly as Sata campaigning in Eastern Province has been 
negligible. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Likewise, Sata's perceived popularity in Northwestern 
Province may be misleading.  Without having campaigned in 
Northwestern before the poll, it is difficult to believe that his 
popularity could have jumped up from two percent (the percentage of 
votes that he gleaned in 2006) to 20 percent.  However, Sata does 
enjoy some popularity among miners (many of whom are migrant workers 
from the Copperbelt region) in Solwezi, the provincial capital. 
Nevertheless, the Steadman data suggest that Sata has diminished the 
margin separating him from Banda and will be a strong contender in 
what appears to be an increasingly tight race. 
 
------------------------------- 
Banda:  The (Un)popular Choice? 
------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Banda continues to enjoy broad but tepid support from an 
unenthusiastic electorate that credits him and the MMD with a kind 
of self-evident mandate (based on the 2006 election results) to 
finish President Mwanawasa's five-year term.   Banda also is using 
government resources (helicopters) to reach rural areas and is 
benefiting from the editorial bias of state-owned media.  He has 
deployed a cabinetful of campaign operatives to every corner of 
Zambia.  Since his nomination, he has been treating Zambians with 
populist campaign promises, such as agricultural and fuel subsidies, 
that through his office he can already begin fulfilling. 
 
LUSAKA 00001033  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶8. (U) In 2006, MMD candidate Levy Mwanawasa managed to establish a 
strong support base across the country.  Even in his weakest 
constituency, Southern Province, he succeeded in capturing 20 
percent of the vote: 
 
                      2006 Results 
         (candidates' share of provincial votes) 
               Sata    Mwanawasa  Hichilema 
               ----     -----      --------- 
Central        14         59          24 
Copperbelt     53         38          7 
Eastern        11         43          38 
Luapula        60         33          4 
Lusaka         49         28          21 
Northern       42         49          5 
Northwestern   2          68          25 
Southern       3          20          73 
Western        7          75          12 
 
¶9. (SBU) According to Embassy's calculations, based on 2006 results, 
Banda can afford to lose popularity in much of the country if he can 
sweep a strong majority of the votes in Eastern Province, which has 
half a million voters.  The MMD, however, are increasingly concerned 
about voter turnout, particularly as MMD supporters appear far less 
enthusiastic than their PF counterparts.  Perhaps to encourage voter 
turnout, the Zambian Government declared October 30 a national 
holiday on October 22. 
 
-------------------------- 
Hichilema:  Humdrum Appeal 
-------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Although Hichilema may have maintained his popularity in 
Western, Northwestern, and Central Provinces, he appears to have 
made little headway.  Whatever popularity he has managed to win 
elsewhere is likely to be offset by losses in Eastern Province, 
where Banda has been campaigning heavily.  UPND's separation from 
the United Democratic Alliance, which in 2006 brought in a great 
deal of United National Independence Party (UNIP) support in its 
Eastern Province base, further weakens Hichilema's position in that 
part of the country. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Despite two years of active campaigning, Hichilema's 
lackluster, pecuniary image and highbrow platforms have made little 
impression on a public that acknowledges his integrity, vision, and 
talent, but considers these to be eclipsed by the young leader's 
political inexperience.  Zambians are simply not energized by his 
pragmatic and technocratic approach, especially in the face of 
subsidized fuel and food promises from other candidates.  Some 
Zambians also mistake his introversion for arrogance.  Dismissing 
Hichilema's candidacy entirely, the MMD is more worried about Sata's 
appeal, particularly given the pulsating atmosphere of the PF's 
jam-packed urban rallies. 
 
---------------------- 
Disenfranchised Voters 
---------------------- 
 
¶12. (U) Had the ECZ fulfilled its legal requirement to conduct 
continuous voter registration since 2005, the swell of new voters 
easily could have turned the tide in favor of the opposition 
parties, whose constituencies are dominated by Zambians in their 
twenties.  (The Steadman poll showed that 43 percent of 18-24 year 
olds preferred Sata, compared to 20 percent for Banda and 19 percent 
for Hichilema.) 
 
¶13. (SBU) A Dutch diplomat, who is working closely with (and partly 
funding) the National Democratic Institute (NDI) to conduct a 
parallel vote count, told poloff on October 22 that an NDI 
representative had learned that although the ECZ had not performed 
continuous voter registration, it had added as many as 20,000 names 
to the voter rolls in recent months, a majority of which are Eastern 
Province residents.  Previously the ECZ had announced the addition 
of 4,000 names, which it claimed were incorrectly removed in 2006. 
According to the Dutch diplomat, the NDI rep, however, clarified 
that the ECZ had removed names and added others, with a net result 
of 4,000 additional names.  If true, it demonstrates yet another 
instance of ECZ's lack of transparency and sound judgment, and may 
casts some doubt on its independence and integrity. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Civil Unrest:  Possible but Unlikely 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶14. (SBU) According to several press reports, MMD cadres have 
resorted to violence at MMD rallies in Chipata and Lusaka.  Emboff 
also heard reports of MMD violence at a Banda rally in Solwezi.  The 
hostility, which in each instance was directed at PF supporters, 
points to the ostensible MMD fear of losing the election to PF.  MMD 
spokesperson Benny Tetamashimba allegedly threatened Eastern 
Province residents that they would be "beaten up" if they did not 
 
LUSAKA 00001033  003 OF 003 
 
 
vote for Banda.  In the meantime, PF representatives appear to be 
bracing themselves to contest the election in the event that Sata 
does not win.  Its rejection of the election results could lead to 
civil unrest similar to 2006.  Hichilema has told emboffs on several 
occasions that diplomats should not take Zambian peacefulness for 
granted, as Zambians, he projected, are reaching the ends of their 
tether.  Although full-scale hostility seems unlikely, it is not 
improbable and Embassy expects additional isolated incidents of 
violence.  (Note:  Embassy will convene an EAC to discuss measures 
to take given the possibility of election/post-election violence.) 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶15. (SBU) Final 2008 tallies are likely to be much closer than in 
2006 (when Mwanawasa won 42 percent, Sata won 29 percent, and 
Hichilema won 25 percent of the vote) with single-digit margins 
separating the two leading candidates.  Given the tightness of the 
race, the ECZ will be under inordinate pressure to show transparency 
and integrity in its management of the elections.  In 2001, when 
Mwanawasa beat UPND candidate Anderson Mazoka by about 35,000 votes, 
irregularities and problems engendered distrust and suspicion that 
linger to this day.  UPND leadership still maintains that it won the 
2001 (and 2006) election.  Several instances of MMD on PF violence 
by riled-up rally participants suggest that the close competition 
may also be the source of increased tensions between the parties' 
constituencies. 
 
BOOTH