VZCZCXRO2140
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #1030/01 2970827
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 230827Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6382
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 001030 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ZA
SUBJECT: EMBASSY LUSAKA ELECTION OBSERVATION PLAN 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary and Comment.  A recent poll indicates the October 
30 presidential race could produce extremely tight results between 
Acting President Rupiah Banda and Patriotic Front leader Michael 
Sata.  Had the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) fulfilled its 
legal requirement to conduct continuous voter registration, the 
swell of younger voters easily could have turned the tide in favor 
of the opposition candidates; nevertheless Banda's incumbent 
advantage is being whittled away by his lack of charisma.  Polling 
day is likely to be peaceful, orderly and free from any systematic 
intimidation or coercion, but the ECZ has made few changes to avoid 
the results management problems that plagued the 2006 general 
elections and engendered so much distrust.  The Embassy will deploy 
31 accredited observers to six of Zambia's nine provinces to monitor 
the conduct of election officials and party representatives and to 
conduct parallel vote counts in some constituencies.  EU missions 
will field another 160 or so observers with whom we will be sharing 
findings, but Embassy Lusaka does not plan to issue a statement on 
the freedom and fairness of the election given our limited scope. 
End Summary. 
 
Deployment Plan 
--------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Embassy Lusaka will deploy 31 accredited election observers 
across six of Zambia's nine provinces between October 27 and October 
¶31.  In addition to observing the conduct at polling stations, 
Embassy teams will monitor ballot tabulation at the polling station, 
constituency centers, and district headquarters.  Post will feed 
these observations into its reporting and will share its data with 
other diplomatic observers.  Post intends to conduct a parallel vote 
tabulation in as many as five constituencies by coordinating with 
polling agents and manually tabulating the posted results within 
constituency polling centers to verify that these are consistent 
with ECZ's announcements. 
 
¶3. (U) Other international observers include a strong contingent 
from the European Union.  Although the European Commission (EC) 
could not deploy a full EC observation mission in the time given, it 
has sent a handful of election experts to train and organize about 
160 local diplomats from EU missions in Lusaka.  Other institutions 
planning informal observation missions include Japan (five 
observers), Canada (three observers), the Electoral Institute of 
Southern Africa (20 observers), the Common Market for Eastern and 
Southern Africa (16 to 18 observers), and the Southern African 
Development Community (100 observers).  The Zambian Government 
invited a team from the African Union, but there are no reports of 
an AU team.  In addition, the National Democratic Institute is 
conducting a parallel voter tabulation program and conducting 
training for polling agents, funded by the UK and Denmark. 
 
Potential Pitfalls 
------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) A recent Steadman Group Survey indicates that, despite 
Acting President Banda having the incumbent's advantage, the race 
between Sata and him could be extremely close (septel).  Embassy 
observer teams will be on the lookout for several potential 
pitfalls, which could lead to election irregularities or create 
tension among the parties and/or voters: 
 
¶5. (SBU) Disenfranchised Voters: In the absence of legally mandated 
continuous registration, Zambians who turned 18 after December 2005 
(when the last voter registration was conducted) will be 
disenfranchised.  A visiting election observer from the EU estimated 
the number disenfranchised youths to be between 300,000 and 400,000. 
 Considering that 19-20 year olds constitute about 6.5 percent of 
the population, we believe that number actually could be as high as 
650-750,000.  In addition, voters who are unable to return to the 
constituency where they were registered in December 2005 will be 
barred from voting.  Assuming an urbanization rate of approximately 
three percent per year, this could translate to more than 200,000 
voters.  Considering that urbanites and youth form the backbone of 
PF, these disenfranchised voters could prove decisive in a close 
race. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Vote Tabulation: In 2006, Zambia's 6,456 polling stations 
were peaceful and orderly, but results management was questionable. 
With inadequate training, presiding officers and other electoral 
staff in most cases failed to reconcile ballots properly.  There was 
also inadequate accountability for the ballots once they were 
consolidated in the constituencies.  Although the ECZ has simplified 
the polling station reconciliation process, it has made few other 
changes since 2006 to avoid the problems that tainted the electoral 
process.  Although polling station results will be posted outside 
polling stations, the ECZ does not intend to release these figures 
or publish them on its website.  An international election observer 
trainer told poloff that the ECZ had refused to publish the 
information and could provide no justification for refusing.  "The 
political will is not there," the election expert opined. 
 
¶7. (SBU) In order to verify constituency figures, political parties 
will be compelled to conduct parallel vote counts by coordinating 
 
LUSAKA 00001030  002 OF 002 
 
 
with their polling agents at each individual polling station.  This 
will be difficult to do in some instances, given lack of cell phone 
coverage and inadequate party infrastructure/organization.  The 
ECZ's lack of transparency will undoubtedly fuel charges by the 
unsuccessful candidates that ballot figures were manipulated. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Although there were isolated reports of electoral 
malfeasance in 2006 (e.g., party affiliates attempting to buy voter 
cards), post does not expect any systematic form of voter 
intimidation or coercion this year.  The primary problems may lie in 
small-time political corruption (influencing voters by gift-giving), 
defamation, biased media reporting, abuse of GRZ resources, 
disenfranchisement, and perhaps results management/accountability. 
The election credibility and peace will depend perhaps entirely on 
the ECZ's ability to appear transparent, fair, and professional and 
to satisfy voters that the reported results reflect a true 
tabulation of what transpired at 9,314 polling streams across the 
country on election day.  Embassy Lusaka observer teams will be on 
the lookout for issues that may detract from the credibility of the 
elections but the Embassy does not plan to issue a public statement 
about whether the elections are free and fair, given the limited 
scope of our 16 teams. 
 
BOOTH