VZCZCXRO5200
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1522/01 2881246
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 141246Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2070
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001522 
 
DEPT FOR A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, DRL 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM EAID PINS SU
SUBJECT: ABEL ALIER DECLINES ELECTIONS COMMISSION CHAIRMANSHIP 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Abel Alier informed GOSS Vice President Riek 
Machar Teny and GNU Vice President Ali Osman Taha on October 13 of 
his intention to decline the chairmanship of Sudan's yet-to-be 
formed National Elections Commission (NEC).  Alier, currently in 
Juba, paid a call on Machar to deliver the news personally, and 
called Taha from the GOSS Vice President's office to notify the NCP 
of his decision.  This news came one day before the National 
Assembly was due to reconvene in Khartoum.  GoSS Vice President 
Machar had utilized the Sixth Annual Governor's Forum in Juba to 
announce that President Bashir's decree on the National Elections 
Commission would be tabled before the National Assembly for its 
approval this week - Alier's decision now makes this an 
impossibility.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum told CG Juba on the 
evening of October 13 that he met with Alier earlier that day at the 
direction of SPLM Party Chairman Salva Kiir Mayardit in an attempt 
to persuade Alier to reconsider his decision.  Amum noted that, "if 
Alier does not reverse his decision, we have no other options." 
According to GoSS Minister for Presidential Affairs Luka Biong Deng, 
Alier's decision comes days after the NCP and SPLM acted jointly to 
quash a move by would-be NEC Deputy Chairman Abdulla Idris to 
similarly reject his position as deputy.  During a CG Juba meeting 
with Deng on October 11, Deng claimed that NCP State Minister for 
Presidential Affairs Idriss Abdelgadir said on 9 October that Idris 
would "be handled" - forced to drop his consistent objections to the 
Deputy NEC Chairmanship so that the NEC could be tabled before the 
National Assembly this week. (Note: Idris told Embassy poloff on 
September 18 that he had refused the position of NEC Deputy Chairman 
several times in order to remain co-chairman of the National 
Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC), despite consistent pressure 
from the NCP for him to take on an NEC leadership role.  Idris 
claimed that he wanted to remain at the NCRC in order to work on 
drafting the referendum law that will provide Southerners with a 
right to self-determination in 2011.  End note.) 
 
¶3. (SBU) Pressed on what might have led to Alier's reversal (he had 
pledged to USAID staff in mid-September that he would gladly accept 
the position), Amum maintained that Alier is increasingly troubled 
by doubts over the depth of the NCP's commitment to free and fair 
elections.  While Amum said Alier will publicly cite advancing age 
and waning energy levels as the reasons for his demurral, Alier told 
Amum that he saw only two elections scenarios for Sudan: a 
rigged-victory by the NCP, or national-level elections finally held 
only after Alier personally spent months hammering away at NCP 
intransigence and obstacles.  "He does not want to be forced to 
confront the NCP alone," Amum said, "and he does not want to be held 
responsible for the mess if we were to move forward with elections 
in the current context," a direct reference to the myriad of 
existing national-level laws that continue to be in conflict to the 
CPA and Interim National Constitution.  [Comment: At present, some 
of these laws -- notably the National Security Act and Media Act -- 
make free and fair elections a technical impossibility in Sudan and 
demand reform. End Comment.] 
 
¶4. (SBU) Amum hoped he had persuaded Alier to reconsider his 
decision, but was not confident that he had done so.  He noted that 
the pair agreed to meet again on October 14 before Alier made his 
sentiments publicly known.  Given Alier's unease about chairing a 
potentially illegitimate elections process, ConGen PolOff requested 
that Amum advise Alier of the planned U.S. commitment of $70 million 
worth of USAID technical assistance to the NEC, and noted that 
ConGen staff stood ready to brief Alier on how such assistance could 
help safeguard the NEC's neutrality and expand the Commission's 
political heft. Amum agreed to pass the message, noting the utility 
of such a briefing in perhaps moving Alier toward a positive 
reconsideration of his position. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In a separate meeting with SPLM Deputy Secretary General of 
the Northern Sector Yasir Arman in Khartoum on 13 October, Arman 
told poloffs that the NCP and the SPLM had agreed upon the make-up 
of the nine-person NEC, which the GNU Presidency planned to reveal 
to the Parliament this week, but that the NCP is now having "second 
thoughts" on the list. Arman stated that the NCP "is not happy" 
about having Abel Alier act as the NEC Chairman, but that it is 
impossible to lobby against his candidacy due to his 
nationally-respected status and penchant for neutrality.  Arman also 
said that Idris has refused the position of Deputy NEC Chairman 
because while he is an equal with Alier in the NCRC, he would have 
to act as Alier's Deputy if he were to take up the NEC role. 
[Comment: While Arman's assessment is an interesting one regarding 
the dynamics between Idris and Alier, it is more likely that Idris 
fears a train-wreck electoral process just as much as Alier, hence 
his decision to decline the role of NEC Deputy Chairman.  End 
comment). 
 
KHARTOUM 00001522  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment:  While there is a mounting sense of urgency that 
an NEC must be agreed upon and instated soon if elections are to 
happen at all in 2009, uncertainty and speculation abound regarding 
the willingness (or unwillingness) of Alier and Idris to take up the 
leadership of the NEC.  Given Idris' refusal of the Deputy Chair 
position several times and Alier's plans to turn down the Chairman 
role publicly on 14 October unless convinced otherwise, the future 
of an energetic, prepared, and nationally-respected NEC is in 
serious jeopardy.  Embassy Khartoum will meet with Alier and Idris 
immediately to emphasize the importance of setting in motion the 
preparation for free and fair elections in Sudan as part of the 
implementation of the CPA.  Embassy Khartoum will also highlight the 
importance of having NEC leaders who  are viewed as capable, neutral 
figures respected by all political parties and civil society and 
will attempt  to convince Alier and Idris to accept the NEC 
positions. 
 
¶7. Bio Note: Alier was catapulted into the "regional presidency" 
following the 1972 Addis Ababa agreement that ended Sudan's first 
North/South civil war.  A noted author of Sudanese history and the 
nation's present constitution, Alier is viewed equally by both the 
National Congress Party and Sudanese People's Liberation Movement as 
the lead representative of Sudanese political neutrality.  Alier and 
Idris are co-chairs of the National Constitutional Review 
Commission. End Note. 
 
ASQUINO