VZCZCXRO4606
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1514 2871128
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 131128Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2061
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 001514 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SE WILLIAMSON MEETING WITH AEC CHAIR PLUMBLY 
 
REF: KHARTOUM 1499 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: AEC Chair Plumbly told Special Envoy Richard 
Williamson on October 8 that while the two parties to the CPA have 
not precisely met deadlines for implementation, they are progressing 
and have addressed difficult issues with a modicum of cooperation. 
Having recently returned from two weeks in South Sudan - an 
experience which he said gave him the chance to "get under the skin" 
of South Sudan - Plumbly predicted that the Sudanese will continue 
to "plod along unevenly" on important issues, but he urged that the 
international community  act to "insulate CPA implementation from 
the ICC issue." END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (SBU) Addressing the chief concern of SE Williamson, Plumbly 
began by saying that the contentious negotiations between the 
National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation 
Movement (SPLM) over Abyei were reaching a significant tipping 
point, and the resolutions from the previous day's AEC plenary 
(reftel) give him cause for hope.  "Both sides will see that they 
both have strong cases, and that both can lose, so they will begin 
talking.  They will realize that the deal on the table is a good 
deal."  Regarding security in Abyei, Plumbly agreed with SE that 
while the Joint Integrated Units (JIUs) in Abyei are "somewhat 
joint, and somewhat integrated," at least they have some minimal 
resources, while at other locations along the border, the JIUs have 
no resources whatsoever, and are neither effective nor efficient. 
Regarding Abyei wealth-sharing, Plumbly said that arrears remain 
unaddressed, but that current revenues are being set aside per the 
roadmap agreement. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Plumbly said that now is a "good moment" to initiate 
discussions to resolve the pressing issue of border demarcation. 
Plumbly sees the NCP as willing to compromise substantially given 
the SPLM's significant leverage - Plumbly quoted NCP negotiator 
Dirdeiry Mohamed Ahmed as telling him, "If Salva Kiir lines up on 
the ICC, we'll give him anything."  Calling it a "matter for 
cartographers and lawyers," Plumbly said that a resolution to the 
border demarcation standoff may soon be possible for several 
reasons: first, as elections approach, borders will be necessary to 
define each party's  constituency; second, with only three years 
left until the 2011 referendum, both parties will endeavor to 
demarcate potential border areas; and third, that the degree to 
which the NCP needs the SPLM on the ICC issue will expand the NCP's 
willingness to compromise. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Plumbly was less optimistic that Sudan has the capacity to 
follow through with the CPA-mandated national elections, planned for 
¶2009.  "Neither side wants the elections, but neither side wants to 
be the one who pulls the plug," Plumbly said.  Despite promised 
assistance from UNMIS and the international community, it would 
still be difficult to hold elections by the end of next year. 
Plumbly expects the parties will refer the question of the timing of 
elections to the National Electoral Commission because neither side 
wants to be seen as publicly admitting that the schedule put forward 
in the CPA is not feasible.  Despite admitting that he has does not 
have high hopes for elections, Plumbly added that the importance of 
the elections remains paramount for the future of Sudan. 
 
¶5. (SBU) When asked if he concurred with gloom-and-doom scenarios 
regarding the ICC arrest warrants, Plumbly admitted that it would be 
better for Sudan if the entire process were averted, but did not 
subscribe to the view that the apocalypse would commence should 
Bashir be labeled a "war criminal" by the ICC.  Nonetheless, Plumbly 
said it was important to try and insulate CPA implementation from 
the ICC indictment and its subsequent reverberation throughout the 
country, and to discourage the SPLM from rising up in dissension to 
the NCP as a result of the possible indictment. 
 
¶6. (SBU) SE Williamson cleared this cable prior to transmission. 
 
ASQUINO