VZCZCXRO8034
PP RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #2897 3031221
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 291221Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6024
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS KABUL 002897 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR MCGRAW 
CG CJTF-101, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: POLL SHOWS VOTERS UPBEAT ON ELECTIONS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The Asia Foundation on October 28 published its 
fourth annual nationwide survey of Afghan public opinion. 
Media coverage has focused on the finding that security is 
the main reason for greater overall pessimism among Afghans; 
while a plurality of 38 percent of believe the country is 
moving in the right direction, the trend is down 
significantly from 2004, when 64 percent shared this view. 
Looking ahead to presidential and provincial council 
elections in 2009, however, Afghans show a resilient 
optimism.  According to the survey of 6593 Afghans across the 
nation's 34 provinces, 72 percent are confident that the 
government will competently organize the elections.  The 
Independent Election Commission (IEC) trails only the Afghan 
National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP) among 
government institutions earning the public's trust. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  When asked, 77 percent of survey respondents say 
they plan to vote -- although such survey results typically 
exceed voter turnout.  Still, more voter education would help 
the almost 50 percent who admit they do not know how to 
register or vote.  Among media for such public outreach 
efforts, radio reaches 83 percent of this population, equally 
in urban and rural areas. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  This enthusiasm for elections draws on broad 
support for democracy as a system of government: 76 percent 
believe democracy is better than any other system.  Most -- 
68 percent -- are satisfied with democracy in Afghanistan. 
Afghans widely expect democracy will bring peace and freedom, 
and also less corruption.  Sixty-six percent think a country 
can both adhere to Islamic values and have a democratic 
system of government. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  The survey results suggest most Afghans have a 
solid grasp of the idea of elections as a mechanism of 
accountability to voters.  Increasingly willing to criticize 
this government's performance on combating corruption, 
improving security, and responding to growing economic 
pressures, Afghans are still confident their vote will make a 
difference -- 68 percent of respondents say yes, only a 
slight drop from 72 percent in 2007.  This year 66 percent of 
respondents feel they can significantly influence government 
decisions, an increase of 17 percent since 2006. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Security is the pivot for overall optimism or 
pessimism about Afghanistan's future, and the main reason for 
the greater overall pessimism that media reports of its 
survey have flagged.  Responses vary greatly, however, by 
region.  The south, unsurprisingly, has markedly greater 
concern about security and markedly less optimism about the 
future.  At the national level, security is the top issue for 
36 percent, followed by unemployment for 31 percent and high 
prices for 22 percent.  At the local level, a majority of 
Afghans say they most want the government to provide, in rank 
order, electricity, water, roads, and health clinics -- then 
security.  The greatest concerns of women are illiteracy (45 
percent) and lack of rights (24 percent.)  Only in the 
southwest does security move ahead on this list, but still 
behind electricity.  Among the 23 percent who do not plan to 
vote, security concerns (25 percent) trail apathy (33 
percent.) 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The complete survey report, which covers additional 
topics, is available on line at asiafoundation.org. 
WOOD