VZCZCXRO7691
RR RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #2779/01 2910347
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 170347Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5858
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 7044
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 8029

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002779 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM, SCA/P 
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA 
NSC FOR WOOD 
OSD FOR WILKES 
CENTCOM FOR CG CSTC-A, CG CJTF-101 POLAD 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF ETRD EFIN AF PK TI
 
SUBJECT: Kunar Preparing for Influx of Refugees from Bajaur 
 
KABUL 00002779  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (U) This is a joint Embassy Kabul/Embassy Islamabad cable. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Summary: An estimated 180 Afghan families living in 
Pakistan have fled into Afghanistan's Kunar province after Bajaur 
Agency issued an October 3 order directing all Afghans to leave 
within three days.  Kunar Province's Department of Refugees and 
Repatriation (DoRR) estimates that an additional 20,000 Afghans 
could migrate into Kunar based on interviews conducted with the 
families that have registered over the past few days.  However, 
UNHCR in Islamabad and the Governor of the Northwest Frontier 
Province (NWFP) in Pakistan did not think that was likely.  Pashtun 
tribal leaders from the elected Kunar Provincial Council met on 
October 6 to pledge their support to provincial authorities to 
accommodate any influx of new refugees from Pakistan.  In keeping 
with Pashtunwali tradition, the overall sentiment of Kunar residents 
remains one of acceptance and the desire to assist the returning 
Afghans.  End Summary. 
 
¶3. (SBU) On October 3, the Political Agent in Bajaur Agency, 
Pakistan issued an order for Afghans to leave within three days. 
UNHCR's Country Representative met with the Governor of NWFP October 
10 to express concern and clarify whether those being expelled were 
not registered refugees; UNHCR came away satisfied that they were 
not.  The Governor said the order was aimed at those illegally in 
Pakistan, and was motivated by security concerns related to the 
current military operations against militants.  Between 3000-5000 
people had left, while about 400 moved to Lower Dir in Pakistan. 
UNHCR has heard that an expulsion order was also issued in Taxila 
(near Islamabad) and will send a team to check.  UNHCR is concerned 
that similar orders may be issued in Khyber and Kurram Agencies - a 
much more serious matter given the large number of Afghans living 
there.  (Note. Embassy Islamabad will follow up to see whether 
Pakistani officials have such plans. End Note) 
 
¶4.  (U) Kunar's Director of Refugees and Repatriation Sardar Khan 
reports there are 4,391 Afghan returnee and Pakistani refugee 
families living in Kunar province, concentrated in Shigal, Marawara, 
and Dangam districts.  He therefore estimates a total of 
approximately 23,000 displaced people residing in Kunar - based on 
an estimate of five persons per family plus an additional 1,000 
unregistered persons.  Media reports of up to 40,000 refugees in 
Kunar seem to be exaggerated.  Refugees, comprised mostly of women 
and children, have settled primarily with friends or family. 
Provincial authorities estimate that two-thirds of the families are 
Pakistani and one-third Afghan. 
 
¶5.  (U) Media and UN estimates of Afghan refugees remaining in 
Bajaur Tribal Agency range from 50,000 to 70,000.  Approximately 30 
percent of the refugees are originally from Kunar province while the 
rest are predominately from Nuristan, Laghman and Nangarhar 
provinces.  DoRR expects that the majority of refugees from Kunar 
province will return to their extended families living within the 
border districts of Narai, Dangam, Shigal, Marawara, Kas Konar, and 
Noorgal. 
 
¶6. (U) UNHCR has taken the lead role in coordinating all 
humanitarian assistance (HA) efforts of UN organizations (UNHCR, 
UNICEF, WFP), in cooperation with ICRC, in Kunar province. UNHCR has 
already committed to the construction of 3,000 room-additions to 
existing dwellings to shelter refugee families that are living in 
tents.  Afghan Red Crescent continues to verify numbers of refugees 
and distributed aid to 2,123 families in Shigal district during the 
last week of September.  Most refugees have been arriving in Kunar 
with little more than the clothes on their backs. 
 
¶7.  (U) Provincial authorities anticipate the greatest need will be 
food; however, other assistance will still be required, especially 
material aid for winterization.  To address immediate needs, Task 
Force Duke's Civil Military Operations (CMO) ordered significant 
quantities of food and material supplies and is ready to provide 
more assistance if requested by the provincial government. 
 
¶8.  (U) Governor Wahidi has previously rejected the establishment of 
free-standing refugee camps in Kunar, however he admitted he would 
revisit this issue should a larger influx of displaced people occur. 
 A single camp currently exists in Kas Kunar district, supporting 
 
KABUL 00002779  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
750 resident returnee families.  Provincial authorities are in the 
process of designing a fully contained city in the vicinity of the 
existing camp and have set aside approximately 1500 acres of land 
for this purpose.  The new city will be able to accommodate 
approximately 10,000 residents and include construction of a market, 
school, and hospital.  DoRR expects that many of the new people from 
Bajaur could be accommodated once the project is completed. 
 
¶9.  (U) WHO confirmed four cases of cholera in Kunar, however, the 
outbreak has been controlled.  Afghan Minister of Public Health 
Fatemi announced on Monday that there are 750 cases of diarrhea 
across Kunar, Samangan, and Laghman provinces, resulting in 16 
deaths.  Kunar DoPH will continue to monitor the treatment and 
status of these cases.  TF Duke CMO is ordering an additional 25,000 
units of electrolyte replacement therapy/oral rehydration therapy 
(ERT/ORT) to supplement the existing stockpile of 5,000 units needed 
to treat diarrhea cases. 
 
¶10. (U) Provincial authorities and international organizations are 
working closely to assist tribal leaders in managing the existing 
returnee/refugee population and expected influx of new noncombatants 
fleeing conflict.  Although ICRC claims that it has all the HA 
resources it needs to handle both the existing population and the 
potential influx, TF Duke CMO - through UNHCR - will continue to 
ensure adequate aid supplies are available to provincial 
authorities. 
 
¶11.  (U) POLOFF, Embassy Islamabad has cleared on this cable. 
 
WOOD