VZCZCXYZ0008
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSB #0899/01 2771107
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 031107Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3524
INFO RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 5548

UNCLAS HARARE 000899 
 
AFR/SA FOR LOKEN, DOBBINS, HIRSCH, HARMON 
OFDA/W for KLUU, ACONVERY, LMTHOMAS, TDENYSENKO 
FFP/W for JBORNS, ASINK, LPETERSEN 
PRETORIA for HHALE, PDISKIN, SMCNIVEN 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID EAGR PREL PHUM ZI
SUBJECT:  FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE 
 
-------- 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
¶1.  National assessments show that maize yield from the 2008 harvest 
is the lowest on record; sorghum yield was only 60 percent of last 
year's harvest.  The Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ) must overcome 
severe forex shortages and generate political will to mobilize 
resources to meet the county's cereals shortfall.  As a result of 
the critical food shortages in country, Zimbabweans are resorting to 
traditional coping mechanisms earlier than usual. CSAFE and WFP are 
registering families to provide large scale food distributions 
towards the end of October.  According to the FAO and farmers' 
unions, there is a critical shortage of both seeds and fertilizer in 
the country.  It is too late to procure, ship, and distribute these 
inputs as they need to be in the farmers' hands by the end of 
October for planting with the first rains.  Instead, the FAO 
recommends trying to provide inputs for the second planting in 
January/February for roots, tubers, wheat, legumes and seed 
production. FAO strongly recommends donors and NGOs start planning 
now for the 2009-2010 agricultural season.  END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------------- 
GENERAL FOOD SECURITY SITUATION 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  According to national assessments, the 2008 national average 
yield of maize production was the lowest on record at 270 kg per 
hectare and only about 40 percent of that in 2007 (600 kg/ha).  The 
previous lows (150-160 percent of 2008's yield), in 1992 and 2002, 
were years of extreme drought.  The exceptionally low yield in 2008 
is largely attributed to late planting due to untimely and 
inadequate delivery of agricultural inputs, lack of working capital 
and fuel, and poor condition of draught animals following the 
drought in 2007.  Fertilizer was unavailable.  The estimated 2008 
sorghum yield (205 kg/ha) was 60 percent of last year's and the 
third lowest recorded from 1980. 
 
¶3.  Estimates for international food aid requirements assumed that 
the bulk of the deficit would be covered by government imports. 
This is increasingly unlikely.  The GOZ said earlier this year that 
it would import 800,000 MT, but its performance will depend on 
political will and access to hard currency.  At the monthly FAO 
Agricultural Coordination Meeting last week, FAO reported that the 
GOZ had imported 250,000 MT to date.  At a meeting with the WFP, 
senior government officials indicated that they may not be able to 
pay for earlier commitments for commodities.   Furthermore, the 
GOZ's Grain Marketing Board (GMB) distribution system is extremely 
inefficient, leaving many parts of the country without consistent 
access to grains.  Moreover, the GMB is subject to political 
manipulation at the local level.  A private sector supply system is 
illegal as the GMB has a statutory monopoly on all imported grains. 
Efforts by NGOs and WFP can help, but not fully replace this system. 
 
 
¶4.  Reports from many rural areas indicate already poor, and further 
declining, availability of cereal.  In some areas, availability 
should improve marginally after the rains begin and agriculture 
resumes, as farmers who produced in excess of their needs begin to 
pay out their surplus to casual laborers.  Due to the national 
shortage of cash, barter has become common in rural areas.  In the 
urban areas, cash withdrawal limits imposed by the Reserve Bank of 
Zimbabwe (RBZ) and banks inability to supply cash add to people's 
difficulties in purchasing the little food that is available. 
 
¶5.  Coping mechanisms include reducing meals and portions, increased 
reliance on wild fruits, and increased selling of livestock. 
Divestment of too many livestock will only knock households further 
back, resulting in higher numbers in need of food aid and a longer 
recovery period to food security and stabilized livelihoods. 
 
¶6.  Despite all these indications of cereal shortages, the most 
recent nutritional surveillance data (July 2008) showed that 
malnutrition among young children remains well below emergency 
levels, i.e. almost normal, in the seven districts surveyed, which 
were chosen because they previously showed indications of a rising 
trend.  The failure of this traditional indicator to indicate 
extreme crisis could be partially due to cultural intra-household 
practices that tend to direct food to protect the young. 
 
¶7.  However, there are other factors that could lead to 
overestimates of the country's cereal deficit.  Most likely is that 
the national requirement for cereal has been grossly overestimated 
due to an overblown population figure. Estimates of deficits have 
been based on populations extrapolated from the last census (2002), 
and the reliability of this census is questionable (subject to 
political manipulation and under-resourcing of census takers). 
Also, no account has been taken of the large scale out-migration 
from Zimbabwe.  Other factors not considered are the potential 
effect of AIDS mortality exacerbated by poor access to health care 
and shortage of health care providers and drugs. 
 
¶8.  The food security technical group also believes that informal 
cross-border trade of cereals and other food has not been adequately 
considered.  FEWSNET tracking does not capture the small quantities 
imported by the hundreds of thousands that cross the borders monthly 
and return with their vehicle trunks and small trailers loaded with 
food. 
 
--------- 
FOOD AID 
--------- 
 
¶9.  The GOZ's nearly three-month ban on NGO field operations was 
lifted at the end of August.  Both WFP and CSAFE are now registering 
and verifying vulnerable families throughout the country for free 
food distribution.  Few access problems have been reported.  Large 
scale distribution will be phased in, with the first distributions 
expected in mid to late October once the registration/verification 
process is completed.  CSAFE school-based feeding for pre- and 
primary-school children in rural areas is at nearly 100 percent 
capacity, despite high teacher absenteeism, because the program does 
not depend on teacher participation. School aged children (3-14 
years) are welcomed to eat whether they attend classes or not. 
 
¶10.  USAID/FFP has contributed 151,500 MT of food to CSAFE and WFP 
valued at USD 175 million in FY08.  As USAID/FFP is contributing 
more than 65 percent of WFP's current pipeline; additional resource 
requests will be scrutinized closely.  Approximately 47,000 MT of 
CSAFE food has already arrived in Durban and is being delivered to 
Zimbabwe as fast as possible utilizing 30-ton trucks. 
 
¶11.  WFP has issued a local appeal to help cover a USD 151 million 
shortfall.  In their response to the appeal, the EU and the 
Governments of the UK, Sweden, Japan, Germany, the Netherlands, and 
Canada indicated last week that they planned further contributions 
to WFP given it was too late to fund seed and fertilizer 
distribution programs for this year. 
 
----------------------------- 
2008/2009 AGRICULTURAL SEASON 
----------------------------- 
 
¶12.  There are major shortfalls in both seeds and fertilizers for 
the quickly approaching agricultural season.  The UN/FAO and 
Commercial Farmers' Union of Zimbabwe estimate that 10,000 MT of 
maize seeds are available against a 30,000 plus MT requirement. 
Further, 18,500 MT of fertilizer are available against a 167,000 MT 
requirement. 
 
¶13.  The consensus of FAO, numerous donors including USAID/OFDA, and 
NGOs is that it is too late to bring in seeds and fertilizers for 
the 2008/2009 cereal season. Insufficient time exists for 
seed/fertilizer procurement, transport, registration, and 
distribution to enable planting before the first rains.  The 
Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) forecast for 
this year predicts normal to above-normal rainfall in 
October-December, but normal to below-normal rainfall in January- 
March.  This means that farmers must plant early - by the first 
rains (approximately November 15) - if they are to have a decent 
harvest.  Planting after that date, even with the best seeds and 
inputs, will produce extremely low crop yields.  Donor investment 
should instead focus on preparing for next year's season and on 
mitigating some of the shortfall through programs that support the 
January/February planting season of roots, tubers, wheat, legumes 
and seeds and that provide top dressing fertilizer. 
 
¶14.  The prevalence and types of disease among livestock have been 
steadily increasing over the past few years, and the GOZ vet 
extension workers are immobilized by the current economic conditions 
(inadequate salaries and lack of vehicles, fuel and livestock 
drugs).  In addition, livestock diseases increase during the rainy 
season.  FAO is convening a meeting with the major donors on October 
6 to discuss agricultural sector priorities for the next 12-month 
period. 
 
---------------------- 
WHAT CAN BE DONE NOW? 
---------------------- 
 
¶15.  Planning and preparations for the 2009/2010 season should start 
now and include: 
 
-  Seed production support for next year.  It should be kept in mind 
that if prices are too low, like now, farmers will not be interested 
in producing seed. 
 
-  Assistance with the supply of fertilizer and seeds/cuttings for 
the February 2009 planting (sugar beans, Michigan peas, cow peas, 
wheat, sweet potato and cassava). 
 
-  Expansion of initiatives underway in rural irrigation schemes, 
dams, and boreholes combined with conservation agriculture 
interventions and expansion of irrigated gardens.  At present, a 
large segment of the rural population is surviving off their 
gardens. 
 
-  Supporting livestock and agriculture extension services.  There 
are currently 7,000 immobile Agritex Officers who are unable to work 
due to lack of fuel. 
 
-   Strengthening and tapping into the expertise of farmers' unions. 
 
 
¶16.  The OFDA Regional Advisor is consulting with NGOs and FAO on 
providing support for interventions for the February planting season 
as well as potential agricultural activities over the next 
12-months. 
 
MCGEE