VZCZCXRO1324
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHDR #0722/01 2961124
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221124Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7972
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 1031
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 3218
RUEHLGB/AMEMBASSY KIGALI 1149
RUEHJB/AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA 2709
RUEHDS/USMISSION USAU ADDIS ABABA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000722 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/E FOR JAMES LIDDLE; INR FOR FEHRENREICH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TZ
SUBJECT: CLEAR OPPOSITION VICTORY IN MAINLAND BY-ELECTION 
 
REF: DAR 647 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary. Opposition party Chadema held on to its 
Tarime parliamentary seat in a hard fought by-election 
October 12.  Despite low turnout and an aggressive campaign 
by the ruling CCM, the Chadema candidate won with a 
comfortable margin.  An observer mission of diplomatic staff 
from the U.S., Canada and several EU countries encountered a 
well-run election process.  Chadema allegations of widespread 
CCM vote-buying and intimidation appeared to be significantly 
overblown, although the atmosphere of violence during the 
campaign may have contributed heavily to the low turnout. 
While the polling was calm, police used tear gas to disperse 
crowds of Chadema supporters in Tarime town during the 
counting of the votes.  Chadema claimed its victory 
represented a springboard for major gains in the 2010 general 
elections. 
 
¶2. (U) Chadema candidate Charles Mwera won the Tarime 
by-election with 53 percent of the vote.  The CCM candidate, 
Ryoba Kangoye, took 44 percent, and two candidates of smaller 
parties received the remainder (between them, fewer than the 
number of spoiled ballots).  While lower than the 58 percent 
obtained by Chadema in 2005, the margin of victory remained 
significant, large enough to head off any potential dispute. 
Chadema also won convincingly in the by-election for ward 
councilor in Tarime town.  With the victory, Chadema retains 
its total of five elected seats in parliament, eleven total 
including special seats for women. (Note: There are 232 
directly elected seats in parliament and 323 total.  CCM 
holds more than 85 percent.  The largest opposition party in 
parliament, CUF, has 19 elected seats, 30 total.) 
 
¶3. (U) Turnout in Tarime declined from around 85 percent in 
2005 to 46 percent in 2008.  The conventional wisdom that low 
turnout would help CCM proved limited, at best.  Of the 
various explanations we heard for the low turnout, the most 
common was that prospective voters had been scared away by 
the violence that occurred during the campaign.  Others 
attributed the low numbers to lack of voter interest in a 
by-election, which would have no overall impact on parliament 
and did not involve a presidential election. 
 
¶4. (U) Embassy staff joined with diplomats and Tanzanian 
staff from the missions of Canada, UK, Ireland, the 
Netherlands, Sweden and the European Commission as accredited 
observers for the election.  We met with the leading 
candidates, election officials and police, attended rallies 
the day before the election, and visited numerous polling 
stations across the district on election day.  We also 
observed the counting process, both within individual polling 
stations and during the final tabulation at the district 
office. 
 
¶5. (U) Overall, the electoral process appeared to run well 
and impartially.  Polling stations were managed by two 
National Electoral Commission (NEC) officials, and agents 
from the two main parties were present.  In many polling 
stations, the small opposition party NCCR-Mageuzi also had an 
agent.  The polling stations, which generally opened and 
closed on time, were equipped with sufficient ballots, forms 
and supplies.  The NEC officials and party agents verified 
the identity of voters by checking their voting cards - with 
picture - against the registration lists. After casting the 
ballot, the voter received an ink mark on the left little 
finger from a NEC official.  While we observed slight 
variations in practice and some cases of confusion by the 
officials, for the most part the NEC appeared to have trained 
them well. 
 
¶6. (U) After the completion of voting, the NEC officials 
meticulously counted the ballots in the presence of the 
agents, who had the opportunity to challenge any questionable 
votes.  In the stations we observed, there were few disputes, 
and the NEC officials and party agents all signed the final 
results document, which was then posted outside the station. 
The checks on the counting process would make tampering 
difficult. 
 
¶7. (U) Outside the polling stations we visited, the situation 
remained calm through the voting process.  Armed police 
officers were stationed outside each group of polling 
stations and mobile police units made the rounds.  In a few 
instances, the observer teams heard accusations of vote 
 
DAR ES SAL 00000722  002 OF 002 
 
 
buying.  In one case, two men allegedly accompanied several 
illiterate voters, marking their ballots in exchange for cash 
(more usually, illiterate voters would be assisted by the 
voter who had just finished casting a ballot); a Chadema 
councilwoman asked the police to intervene, and the men were 
told to leave the area of the village where voting was taking 
place. 
 
¶8. (U) Tensions heightened once the counting began, 
especially in Tarime town.  Chadema leaders had told their 
supporters to stay near the polling stations to guard against 
CCM manipulation.  Initial poll results gathered from outside 
polling stations showed a Chadema lead.  Party faithful on 
both sides communicated the results rapidly, mainly by text 
message.  A heavy rainstorm dampened spirits and likely 
prevented many Chadema followers from coming into town after 
voting, but crowds gathered outside some of the stations.  In 
at least one instance, the police dispersed a crowd using 
tear gas. 
 
¶9. (U) The final ballot tabulation was delayed by rain until 
the morning of October 13 and lasted for several hours. 
During this time, police again used tear gas and fired 
warning shots to scatter a crowd of Chadema backers in Tarime 
town.  By the morning, the Chadema candidate and party 
leaders were confident of victory; the CCM candidate 
informally acknowledged defeat to members of the observer 
team long before the final declaration of a winner.  However, 
he boycotted the announcement itself and arrived at the 
electoral office shortly thereafter to file a complaint. 
According to NEC officials, candidates have no standing to 
challenge a result except if there are irregularities at 
individual polling stations; because the polling stations all 
reported complete results, the CCM candidate's only recourse 
would be a legal challenge.  Senior CCM officials publicly 
accepted the election result shortly after Chadema was 
declared to have won. 
 
¶10. (U) Chadema leaders were jubilant after the announcement 
that Mwera had won.  MP for Kigoma and party activist Zitto 
Kabwe crowed over the party's first by-election victory, 
which he claimed would serve as a springboard for the 2010 
general elections.  Kabwe observed that in 2005 there were 
some forty districts where the CCM candidate won with less 
than a majority because opposition parties were divided.  He 
said Chadema at least was open to working with the other 
opposition parties for 2010. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Comment. Much of the hype preceding the election, 
from both the media and the parties, appeared overblown on 
the day itself.  While there appeared to be a few cases of 
small-scale vote buying, there was no evidence of 
comprehensive efforts to subvert the outcome.  Similarly, 
although concerns about violence may have kept voters away 
from the polls - and there may also be some truth to claims 
of police intimidation during the campaign - there appeared 
to have been no disturbances during the voting.  There was no 
evidence whatever of tampering with the ballot boxes and the 
count.  Indeed, the NEC's system ensured that tampering would 
have been difficult. 
GREEN