VZCZCXRO6238
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHDR #0706/01 2891401
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151401Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7952
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 1024
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 3212
RUEHLGB/AMEMBASSY KIGALI 1143
RUEHDS/USMISSION USAU ADDIS ABABA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000706 
 
AF/E FOR JLIDDLE, INR/RAA FOR FEHRENREICH 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TZ
 
SUBJECT: Opposition Chadema leaders critique the Kikwete Presidency 
 
¶1. Summary:  In a discussion with DCM, two leaders of opposition 
party CHADEMA recognized that Tanzania's democratic development "has 
a positive trend line."  They criticized President Kikwete's 
handling of the African Union Chairmanship as unfocussed and 
reactive.  They maintained that by postponing indefinitely difficult 
decisions and refusing to confront corrupt figures in his party and 
government, Kikwete is undermining his own presidency and turning 
serious issues (Zanzibar power sharing, Union status, corruption) 
into "explosive" issues.  There are elements of truth to this harsh 
critique, but as opposition leaders they cranked it up a few extra 
notches.  State House is chaotic and faction-ridden, with no one 
serving as a strong Chief of Staff.  We continue to urge the 
President, who we are convinced has good governance policy 
intentions, to put his house in order.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. DCM met with two leaders of the opposition Chadema party, Zitto 
Kabwe and Dr. Wilbrod Slaa.  Both are members of parliament.  The 
meeting took place at Dr. Slaa's parliamentary office in Dodoma 
prior to Chadema's recent victory in the Tarime by-election 
(septel).  Dr. Slaa serves as his party's Secretary General.  Zitto 
Kabwe is a noted activist and "young turk."  The opposition controls 
15 percent of the seats in parliament (44 out of 290).  Chadema 
controls eleven of those seats, with the remainder held by CUF (32) 
and the UDP (1).  The opposition parties coordinate in parliament. 
 
 
¶3. Slaa and Kabwe made the following points, in unison: 
 
On Tanzania's Democracy: 
 
-- Parliamentary procedures and constitutional arrangements were 
shaped by nearly thirty years of one-party rule.  A dozen years or 
so of multipartyism has not yet erased the legacy of the one-party 
state, especially as regards the relation between the ruling party 
and state institutions such as the police, the judiciary and the 
central bank. 
 
-- Still, we recognize that the trend line is positive.  Tanzania is 
becoming more genuinely democratic.  Here in parliament the Speaker 
has made several important reforms to give the opposition a greater 
voice and to require consultation with the opposition.  We know that 
he is under severe attack from his CCM (ruling party) colleagues for 
his reasonableness. 
 
On the Kikwete AU Chairmanship: 
 
-- No one can tell us what Kikwete's agenda is for his African Union 
Chairmanship.  When Ghana had the Chairmanship they announced their 
agenda and worked that agenda methodically.  Kikwete leads the AU 
just as he does Tanzania: in an ad hoc manner always reacting to 
events, never launching his own initiatives.  When we wish to 
consult on these issues who do we speak to?  No one in the Ministry 
of Foreign Affairs or the Presidency is designated to back up the AU 
Chairmanship, with the possible exception of the Foreign Minister. 
There is no "AU cell," as there should be. 
 
On the Kikwete Presidency: 
 
-- There is a vacuum at State House.  There is no seriousness, no 
strategic vision, no plan.  Kikwete needs to act.  He is 
accumulating problems as he constantly postpones all issues.  For 
the first time in our country's history cabinet meetings are 
cancelled due to lack of a quorum.  Kikwete is unable to get his 
ministers to attend his cabinet meetings. 
 
-- Kikwete is personally popular, but he is increasingly seen as too 
weak to address the corruption in his party.  He is surrounded by 
people notorious for their corruption.  His image is hurt by this. 
He is not pulling the CCM up.  The CCM is dragging him down. 
 
-- He made a public commitment to resolve the political problem of 
Zanzibar.  He publicly associated himself with the power sharing 
arrangements in Kenya and Zimbabwe, but is unable to achieve the 
same for Zanzibar.  At Butiama (site of the last ruling party 
conference) he allowed himself to be humiliated by Karume (President 
of Zanzibar).  His strength within the party is undermined by his 
refusal to confront anyone. 
 
-- Kikwete's weakness directly led to the worsening relations 
between Zanzibar and the Union.  Now that politicians like Karume 
see that Kikwete will not confront them and will indefinitely put 
off difficult decisions, they are successfully manipulating him to 
the detriment of the country.  These issues (Zanzibar power sharing, 
union, corruption, etc.) do not improve with age, they only become 
more "explosive." 
 
DAR ES SAL 00000706  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶4. Comment: There are elements of truth to this harsh critique, but 
as opposition leaders they cranked it up a few extra notches.  We 
too have lamented the lack of discipline and the apparent lack of 
strategic thinking at State House.  We have also witnessed the 
tendency to put off difficult decisions, especially on Zanzibar and 
corruption.  State House is chaotic and faction-ridden and no one 
serves as a strong Chief of Staff.  We continue to urge the 
President, who we are convinced has good governance policy 
intentions, to put his house in order.  A former Foreign Minister, 
Kikwete clearly relishes the international stage and is effective at 
working regional issues.  However, for the good of the country and 
his own political standing, he must devote more of his attention to 
the responsibilities of Chief Executive. 
 
GREEN