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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 000917 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES SET TO VOTE OCTOBER 8 IN FIRST ROUND OF 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
 
REF: A. COLOMBO 880 
     ¶B. COLOMBO 854 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  On September 22, the Elections Commission 
declared six candidates eligible to stand in Maldives' 
first-ever multi-party Presidential election.  Five opponents 
are challenging President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom of the ruling 
DRP: the Maldives Democratic Party's Mohamed Nasheed 
("Anni"); Maldives' richest man, Gasim Ibrahim of the 
newly-created Republican Party; the Social Liberal Party 
(SLP) candidate Ibrahim Ismail ("Ibra"); an independent 
candidate, former Attorney General Hassan Saeed and Islamic 
Democratic Party (IDP) leader Umar Naseer.  The Supreme Court 
rejected two challenges to President Gayoom's candidacy on 
October 2, as well as a challenge to Nasheed's right to 
contest.  With that, the way is clear for all six to compete 
in the first round of voting scheduled for October 8.  If no 
candidate secures over 50%, a runoff between the top two 
finishers will take place about ten days later. 
Representatives of the main parties say that fears of a 
looming "constitutional void" if voting is not completed by 
the deadline of October 10 are overstated. In the absence of 
published polls, it is difficult to assess the state of the 
race.  MDP representatives are increasingly confident of 
their chances of unseating Gayoom.  Gayoom is relying on his 
30-year incumbency, especially his network of island and 
atoll chiefs, to deliver victory.  Politicians generally seem 
bullish about Maldives' prospects for holding its first 
democratic, multi-candidate Presidential election.  The 
public is highly motivated; however, only 25% of voters say 
they expect polling to be free and fair.  End summary. 
 
Opposition Walks Out as Supreme Court Sworn In 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶2.  (U) On September 18, opposition members walked out of the 
Majlis in protest as the President's DRP pushed through its 
five nominations to the Supreme Court.  The judges will form 
an interim Supreme Court until a permanent court can be 
established following parliamentary elections next year.  The 
opposition complained that they had inadequate time to 
scrutinize the nominees.  Information Minister Nasheed 
expressed disappointment that none of the judges had a 
background in common law.  Social Liberal Party Presidential 
Candidate Ibrahim Ismail ("Ibra") echoed this concern, 
complaining that only one of the judges has an education in a 
field other than Shari'a law.  MDP sources claim that 
President Gayoom's strong-arm tactics in filling the bench 
were primarily aimed at ensuring that his candidacy would be 
allowed to go forward. 
 
Court Rejects Challenge to Gayoom 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) On October 2, the Supreme Court ruled against a 
legal challenge to Gayoom's candidacy filed by Social Liberal 
Party candidate Ibra.  Ibra had contended that Gayoom could 
not be eligible to run again after serving six terms.  (The 
new Constitution sets a two-term limit, but the Court agreed 
with the argument that Gayoom's terms under the old 
Constitution did not count.)  The Court also dismissed a 
complaint against Gayoom by the moderate Islamist party 
Adhaalath, which claimed that Gayoom is not a Sunni Muslim (a 
constitutional requirement for holding office) because of his 
supposed heretical views.  Finally, the Supreme Court 
sustained the Criminal Court's and Election Commission's 
earlier findings that Anni's 2001 conviction for theft (on 
what are generally considered trumped-up charges) did not 
constitute a crime under Shari'a law.  A contrary finding 
would have rendered Anni ineligible. 
 
Who Knows Who's on First? 
------------------------- 
 
COLOMBO 00000917  002 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In the absence of published polling data, it is 
difficult to hard to determine where Gayoom stands in 
relation to his opponents.  MDP representatives say they are 
increasingly confident, while President Gayoom is relying on 
the power of his 30-year incumbency.  We expect no candidate 
will receive 50% of the vote, forcing a second round runoff 
between the top two finishers.  Of the rest of the field, 
only independent Hassan Saeed (the former Attorney General) 
and Qasim Ibrahim (former Finance Minister and reputedly 
Maldives' wealthiest man) have a realistic chance to get 
through to the second round.  The MDP believes that much of 
the anti-Gayoom vote will consolidate behind Anni if he and 
the incumbent make the runoff.  However, the MDP says their 
private polling data shows Anni in first place, followed by 
former Attorney General Hassan Saeed - not Gayoom.  In a sign 
of the opposition's increasing confidence of unseating 
Gayoom, Anni and Saeed are starting to concentrate more of 
their fire on each other.  Gayoom is banking on his network 
of island and atoll chiefs, who all owe their appointments to 
him, to bring in enough votes.  (In fact, he shuffled some 
atoll chiefs, and brought in six new ones, on September 30 - 
barely a week before the vote.)  In the more remote islands, 
Gayoom's appointees may be able to exert enough pressure to 
sway some votes.  The Republican Party is relying on Qasim's 
name recognition, large employee base, and personal fortune 
to propel him into a second round.  Rumors are rampant, 
however, that the wealthiest candidate, Qasim, is spending 
money freely in an attempt to buy votes.  The other 
candidates are rather gleefully reminding voters that their 
ballots are secret. 
 
(SBU) THE CANDIDATES AND THEIR RUNNING MATES 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  Dhivehi Raiyyathunge Party (DRP) leader Maumoon Abdul 
Gayoom, 71, has served six terms as President.  He now faces 
his first multi-candidate election.  Educated at Royal 
College, Colombo, he has a Bachelor's in Islamic Shari'a and 
Civil Law from Al-Azhar University, Egypt, and a Master's in 
Shari'a from the same institution. 
 
Gayoom's running mate Ahmed Thasmeen Ali, born in 1967, is 
the current Minister for Atolls Development.  Previously, as 
Home Affairs Minister, he introduced important reform 
measures to Maldives' relatively new police service.  He 
holds a BA in Economics from the University of Warwick, UK 
and a Master's in Political Science from American University, 
Cairo. 
 
Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) leader Mohamed Nasheed 
(Anni) is a former member of Parliament and long-time critic 
of Gayoom's regime.  He has been sentenced to prison several 
times.  In 1991, Amnesty International named him a Prisoner 
of Conscience.  Nasheed left Maldives in 2003 to found the 
MDP, along with Mohamed Latheef, in exile in Sri Lanka and 
the UK. The British government granted him political asylum 
in 2004.  Nasheed returned to Male in April 2005. 
 
Anni's running mate, Dr. Mohamed Waheed Hassan Manik is the 
leader of the newly-formed National Alliance Party.  Waheed 
was one of the earliest to oppose Gayoom's government.  The 
first Maldivian to receive a PhD (from Stanford), Waheed has 
spent years outside the country during his career with 
UNICEF.  He has had an uneven relationship with the MDP, 
heavily involved in the party in 2005, but resigning in 2007 
after describing the party as "militant." 
 
Independent candidate Hassan Saeed of the "New Maldives" 
movement was educated in Malaysia and received his PhD from 
the University of Queensland, Australia.  Saeed had served as 
the Chief Judge of the Criminal Court before becoming 
Attorney General under Gayoom.  Saeed broke with Gayoom in 
 
COLOMBO 00000917  003 OF 004 
 
 
2007 and left the government along with other reform-minded 
DRP ministers. 
 
Saeed's running mate and "New Maldives" partner, former 
Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed, studied at the University of 
Aberystwyth, UK and obtained a PhD in International Relations 
from the University of Queensland.  When Shaheed resigned as 
Foreign Minister, he said "a conservative old guard within 
the parliament and cabinet" were resisting reform. 
 
The candidate of the Republican (Jumhooree) party, Qasim 
Ibrahim, is a billionaire businessman and former Finance 
Minister under Gayoom, resigning in July 2008 to run for 
President.  Qasim began his career as a government hospital 
clerk.  His Villa companies are active in many sectors, 
including tourism resorts and shipping.  Qasim has served in 
a number of other important posts in government and industry, 
including as President of the SAARC Chamber of Commerce and 
Industry.  Qasim also has the backing of the islamist 
Adhaalath (Justice) Party, which decided not to run its own 
candidate. 
 
Qasim's running mate Ahmed Ali Sawad, 35, a relative unknown 
(the campaign calls him "untainted"), had spent 14 years 
outside Maldives.  He studied at the University of Bangalore 
law school and worked as a journalist for the Times of India. 
 He is currently pursuing a PhD in human rights law from the 
University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand. 
 
Social Liberal Party (SLP) leader Ibrahim Ismail (Ibra), one 
of the principal architects of the new Constitution, has used 
his candidacy to highlight procedural and constitutional 
question issues and ways in which Maldives is falling short 
of democratic standards.  Ibra completed his secondary 
education at Majeediyya school and the Science Education 
Center in Male and obtained a Bachelor's and Master's (in 
Education Administration) from the University of Canberra. 
 
Ibra's running mate Fathimath Nahid Shakir, the only woman on 
the ballot, has a Master's in education from the University 
of Reading, UK, and twenty years' experience in the education 
sector. 
 
Islamic Democratic Party candidate Umar Naseer, a former 
policeman and member of the Majlis, studied at the University 
of Colombo and maintains ties to Sri Lanka.  Naseer runs as a 
law-and-order hardliner and has called for rigid enforcement 
of penalties prescribed by Shari'a law, including the death 
penalty for drug traffickers and murderers.  Some question 
his credentials as an Islamist, considering him an 
opportunist. 
 
Naseer's running mate Ahmed Rizwee, another newcomer to 
politics, is a former member of the National Defense Force. 
According to Naseer, he has held managerial positions in 
several companies. 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: It is clear that a second round, if 
necessary, will fall after the constitutional deadline of 
October 10 for voting to be complete.  However, no party, 
save the SLP, has raised serious objections to the potential 
for a brief period of "constitutional void".  While it is 
legally messy, most observers have concluded that there is no 
reason the Election Commission and Supreme Court could not 
administer and adjudicate a second round outside the 
constitutionally minimal timeframe.  We have seen no 
indication that this would cause widespread public protest or 
otherwise call into question the conduct of the election -- 
as long as it is perceived to be free and fair.  Given the 
importance of this election for Maldives' future democratic 
development, Embassy is deploying three officers, as part of 
a larger EU-led mission, to assist with election observation. 
 We plan to do the same for the second round, if, as we 
 
COLOMBO 00000917  004 OF 004 
 
 
expect, a runoff is necessary. 
BLAKE