VZCZCXRO3315
RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCG #0362/01 2981005
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241005Z OCT 08
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1943
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3369
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000362 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PTER IN
SUBJECT: DMK PRESSURE TACTICS EMBARRASS CONGRESS; SUSPENSE CONTINUES 
ON POSSIBLE OUTCOME 
 
REF: Chennai 344 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: After setting a two-week deadline for the 
Government of India to force a ceasefire in Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu's 
ruling DMK party is going full steam on a campaign in support of Sri 
Lankan Tamils. The DMK's 20 Members of Parliament have handed over 
resignations to Chief Minister Karunanidhi, entrusting him to 
forward the letters to the Center if the Center fails to enforce a 
ceasefire in Sri Lanka. DMK's ally, the Congress, has distanced 
itself from the DMK's aggressive stance on the issue but fears that 
the UPA might lose a major ally in South India if the DMK pushes 
ahead with the protest. In what may have been a move to placate 
Congress and the GOI, Tamil Nadu police arrested Vaiko, the brash 
pro-LTTE politician of Tamil Nadu. Observers still believe GOI 
initiatives in Sri Lanka would help the DMK claim success and remain 
in their parliamentary seats  but they know fully well that the 
decision rests entirely with an unpredictable 85-year old man, Chief 
Minister Karunanidhi.  End Summary 
 
DMK Steps up pressure, keeps up suspense 
--------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Tamil Nadu's ruling party and Congress' principal ally in 
South India, the DMK, is going ahead with an intensive campaign in 
support of the Sri Lankan Tamils. In an effort to step up pressure 
on the Government of India, Chief Minister Karunanidhi has demanded 
and secured the resignation letters of all 20 Members of Parliament 
belonging to the DMK (16 Lok Sabha members including 7 Union 
Ministers, and 4 Rajya Sabha members including Karunanidhi's 
daughter Kanimozhi).  Karunanidhi evidently intends to forward these 
resignation letters to the Center if the GOI fails to secure a 
ceasefire in Sri Lanka by October 28.  On October 24, the DMK 
planned to make a "human chain", rallying about 100,000 people to 
highlight the cause of Sri Lankan Tamils (heavy rains, however, 
appeared to have caused fewer supporters than expected to turn up). 
There is clearly an effort to show that the DMK's is not an empty 
threat, but a serious effort to stop the war in the island even if 
it means pulling out its Ministers from the Union government and its 
MPs from the Union Parliament. 
 
¶3. (SBU) DMK strongman and Tamil Nadu Power Minister Arcot Veerasamy 
(protect) indicated to Consul General Simkin on October 22 that he 
is unsure what would happen after the October 28 deadline of the 
DMK. He declined to speculate whether the resignations of the party 
MPs would be carried out, but said that he does not have much hope 
that Sri Lanka would end the ongoing war on the LTTE.  He 
acknowledged the diplomatic initiatives GOI has undertaken and said 
humanitarian assistance has begun to move to the affected areas in 
Northern Sri Lanka. He said a high level Sri Lankan team might visit 
New Delhi shortly to hold discussions with GOI and Indian External 
Affairs Minister Mukherjee might visit Sri Lanka to impress upon Sri 
Lanka the need to avoid civilian casualties.  These developments, 
however, may not satisfy the DMK leadership. 
 
Congress irked by DMK's aggressive stance 
---------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Veerasamy indicated that the DMK campaign is indeed causing 
tension between the party and its national ally, the Congress.  He 
said the harsh criticism of Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Singh 
made at a film stars' rally in Rameshwaram in support of Sri Lankan 
Tamils had angered the Congress leaders in Tamil Nadu who had been 
together with the DMK at the all party meeting (Reftel). Meanwhile 
the media reported that the Congress MPs from Tamil Nadu would not 
tender their resignations without the consent of the party high 
command. 
 
Balancing act: Pro-LTTE leader Vaiko arrested 
--------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) In what may have been an effort to show a balanced stance 
by the TNG, Tamil Nadu state police arrested Vaiko, the pro-LTTE 
leader of the MDMK party, on October 23.  The charge against him is 
that he made a seditious speech at Chennai saying he would not 
hesitate to take up arms in support of Sri Lankan Tamils. 
Journalists told Post that the arrest of Vaiko indicated the 
unwillingness of the Government of Tamil Nadu to confront the Center 
on the issue. Speaking to the press at the time of his arrest, Vaiko 
maintained that what he meant was taking up arms against Sri Lanka, 
not against India. 
 
 
LTTE High Voltage Campaign on 
-------------_ 
 
¶6. (SBU) The LTTE and its Tamil Nadu supporters have stepped up a 
campaign to raise a wave of sympathy for the suffering Tamils across 
the Pak Straits.  Hundreds of copies of a 45-minute DVD featuring 
 
CHENNAI 00000362  002 OF 002 
 
 
the sufferings of Tamils in Northern Sri Lanka are currently doing 
the rounds in Chennai. Visuals of aerial raids, wounded and dead 
children, shattered homes and schools, displaced Tamils on the move, 
spirited LTTE rallies upholding large pictures of Prabhakaran, and 
voices urging Tamils of Tamil Nadu to raise their voice against the 
Government of India's support to the Government of Sri Lanka are the 
highlights of the short film.  Veerasamy told us that he has watched 
the DVD.  Tamil TV channels have aired brief excerpts of the DVD. 
Efforts are on to widely circulate the DVD among Tamil youths and 
students, who, unlike their previous generation, have much less 
pan-Tamil sentiments. 
 
DMK-Congress rift unlikely, but can't say for sure 
------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: The Congress might not take the DMK's aggressive 
stance on the issue lightly if Karunanidhi pushes the resignations 
of its MPs and Union Ministers.  Only months away from Lok Sabha 
elections, the UPA coalition could then face a serious threat of 
unraveling.  Already unpopular with long power outages, the DMK 
would then be in worse shape if it loses its alliance with the 
Congress.  Moreover, the DMK state government's survival depends 
critically on the support of the Congress as the DMK does not have a 
majority of its own. For these reasons, it is difficult to imagine 
Karunanidhi pushing ahead with the resignations of the MPs after the 
28th. However, people familiar with the quirks of Tamil Nadu 
politics would hesitate to predict, knowing fully well that the 
decision would entirely be that of an 85-year old man who sees 
himself as the "father" of world Tamils.  CM Karunanidhi may take a 
long view, and it is possible that he considers that his party's 
prospects, and the political careers of his sons and daughter, might 
be enhanced by a dramatic gesture in support of suffering Tamils. 
End Comment 
SIMKIN