VZCZCXRO4894
RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCG #0344/01 2891004
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151004Z OCT 08
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1912
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3338
RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000344 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PTER IN CE
SUBJECT:  TAMIL NADU'S MAJOR PARTIES PRESSURE GOI TO INTERVENE IN 
SRI LANKA 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  An "all-party meeting" held on October 14 under 
the chairmanship of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Karunanidhi resolved 
that the Members of Parliament (MPs) from Tamil Nadu would resign if 
the Government of India does not ensure a ceasefire in Sri Lanka 
within two weeks.  The "all-party meeting" was attended by the 
ruling DMK, the Congress Party (its major ally), the PMK party and 
the Communist parties, the CPI and the CPM.  Since a mass 
resignation of MPs from Tamil Nadu could potentially destabilize the 
Government of India, the news of the resolution received wide 
coverage in the media. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Summary, continued:  Our sources, however, indicate that 
the threat to the UPA government might not be as serious as it 
appears in the press.  They suggest that the "ultimatum" is a 
political tactic to blunt local criticism from the DMK's opponents, 
who have charged that the DMK has betrayed the interests of ethnic 
Tamils in Sri Lanka by staying on the sidelines in the face of 
atrocities by the Sri Lankan military against civilians.  While they 
are outraged at the situation in Sri Lanka, it is unlikely that the 
DMK and its allies are actually prepared to fall on their swords 
over this issue.  We expect that the GOI will come up with some kind 
of initiative that will allow the DMK and its allies to claim 
victory and restore local honor.  End Summary 
 
"Genocidal" war crossing all limits, says Karunanidhi 
----------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Chief Minister Karunanidhi told the Consul General on 
October 15 that an "all-party meeting" held the previous evening in 
Tamil Nadu resolved that the Members of Parliament from the state 
would resign if the Government of India fails to act to bring about 
a ceasefire in Sri Lanka within two weeks.  Karunanidhi explained 
that the resolution was a "cry of anguish" by the attendees, adding 
that they believed that the "genocide" being perpetrated by the Sri 
Lankan military "crossed all limits" in violating the human rights 
of the island's Tamils.  He emphasized that the meeting's attendees 
wanted to "communicate their anguish" about the plight of their 
ethnic brethren. 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Specifically, the all-party meeting adopted six 
resolutions: 
 
--urging the GOI to intervene and bring about a ceasefire in Sri 
Lanka; 
 
--demanding that the GOI stop supplying arms to the GSL; 
 
--warning that the MPs from the attending parties will resign if 
there is no ceasefire within two weeks; 
 
--encouraging the GOI to offer more humanitarian assistance; 
 
--demanding that the humanitarian assistance needs to be given to 
the Tamils directly via the International Red Cross or other aid 
agencies, not via the GSL; and 
 
--demanding that the GOI intervene to stop the Sri Lankan navy from 
killing fishermen from Tamil Nadu who happen to drift into Sri 
Lanka's territorial waters. 
 
Not quite "all parties" 
----------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The "all-party meeting" included leaders of the Congress 
party, the PMK, and the Communist parties CPI and CPM, along with 
the ruling DMK party.  The principal opposition parties, the AIADMK 
of former Chief Minister Jayalalitha, the MDMK party of former MP 
and prominent pro-Tamil agitator Vaiko, the relatively new DMDK 
party of actor Vijayakant, and the BJP had boycotted the meeting. 
The attendees, however, represent 37 of Tamil Nadu's 39 MPs, and 
local press highlighted the fact that their resignation could bring 
down the ruling coalition in New Delhi. 
 
Not much of a threat to UPA, say insiders 
----------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Our contacts, however, tell us that the resolution of the 
"all-party meeting" is not a serious threat to the stability of the 
UPA government.  A senior Congress Party leader characterized the 
resolution as a "paper tiger".  He told us that the whole exercise 
was simple political maneuvering to counter AIADMK leader 
Jayalalitha's recent efforts to embarrass the DMK for its 
association with the Center, which many in Tamil Nadu see as 
ineffective in protecting Tamils on the other side of the Palk 
Strait.  He noted, however, that the all-party resolution might help 
the Government of India mount a diplomatic effort with the Sri 
Lankan government to lessen the suffering of the Tamils in the 
 
CHENNAI 00000344  002 OF 002 
 
 
island. 
 
¶7. (SBU) A senior journalist from a well-respected daily 
characterized the resolution as "posturing".  He said that the 
resolution is aimed at strengthening the hand of the GOI to pressure 
the Government of Sri Lanka (GSL) to avoid civilian casualties.  He 
also told us that he expects the GOI to engage on the issue more 
publicly with the GSL to ensure relief supplies to those displaced 
by the conflict. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Tamil Nadu's political temperature has been rising, fed 
with reports from Sri Lanka that a humanitarian catastrophe is 
looming as the army closes in on the last redoubts of the Tamil 
Tigers (LTTE).  Karunanidhi's political opponents have used his 
silence on the issue -- and his closeness to the Congress Party -- 
to embarrass him.  The characteristic drama of the octogenarian's 
response needs to be appreciated in this context.  The impression we 
had from speaking with Karunanidhi was that this was an important 
issue for him.  However, he said nothing about bringing down the 
government.  In fact, he went out of his way to emphasize that the 
GOI's policy towards Sri Lanka would be decided by the central 
government in New Delhi. 
 
¶9. (SBU) We expect that the GOI will be able to launch some sort of 
initiative, possibly focusing mainly on humanitarian aid, that will 
allow the DMK and its allies to claim success and remain in their 
parliamentary seats.  The plight of Sri Lanka's Tamils is emotive, 
however, so we expect that their displacement and suffering will 
continue to resonate in Tamil Nadu's politics in the coming months 
as all of India gears up for expected parliamentary elections.  End 
Comment. 
 
SIMKIN