VZCZCXYZ0033
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHEG #2160 2821410
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 081410Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0611
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS CAIRO 002160 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/ELA 
TREASURY FOR BRYAN BALIN AND FRANCISCO PARODI 
COMMERCE FOR TOM SAMS AND NATE MASON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV EG
SUBJECT: FINANCIAL TURMOIL REACHES THE NILE: EGYPT'S STOCK 
MARKET SINKS 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: Egypt's benchmark stock index has fallen 22% 
in the last two days to reach multi-year lows. Traders and 
analysts have at long last begun to worry that global 
economic turmoil will hurt the Egyptian economy more than 
originally thought. Despite having well-capitalized banks and 
limited exposure to mortgages and derivative investments, a 
global slowdown will take a bite out of Egypt's recent high 
levels of growth. End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) On the heels of global equity market turmoil, the 
Egyptian stock market's benchmark CASE 30 index has fallen 
22% in the last two days to 5471.  The current levels 
represent a multi-year low and an astonishing 54% drop over 
the past five months from a historic high of 11936 on May 5. 
 
¶3. (U) On Tuesday, the first trading day after the extended 
week-long Eid al-Fitr and Armed Forces Day holiday, the 
market fell 16% almost immediately and maintained that level 
throughout the trading session. On Tuesday, after early 
losses of nearly 14%, the market recovered somewhat to end 
with just over a 7% loss for the day. 
 
¶4. (U) Local market analysts, who have insisted that the 
Egyptian economy is somewhat insulated from the global credit 
crisis, attributed the losses to a number of factors ranging 
from built up pressures from the markets being closed last 
week to actions by the government to remove corporate tax 
exemptions and fuel subsidies from companies operating in 
duty-free zones.  Several analysts have reiterated that the 
Egyptian economy is strong and is still on track for 
continued high GDP growth. 
 
¶5. (U) Comment: While it is true that Egyptian banks have 
plenty of liquidity and the country has only a tiny mortgage 
market, it appears to us that the fall in Egypt's equity 
market is indicative of Egypt's strong ties to global markets 
and the world economy. Above and beyond the volatility in 
equity markets, we expect that the next 12 months will show 
evidence of the impact on Egypt of lower growth across the 
globe.  Slowdowns in foreign tourism, lower Suez canal 
revenues and lower than forecast FDI (particularly from GCC 
investors) have some economists reducing GDP growth estimates 
to the 5-6% range down from earlier forecasts of 6-7%. 
SCOBEY