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RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 2876

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 001330 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR BSC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL: BRAZIL MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: FIRST ROUND 
SHOWS STRENGTH OF INCUMBENCY, GOVERNING PARTY GOING INTO 
2010 PRESIDENTIAL RACE 
 
REF: A. BRASILIA 01320 
     ¶B. SAO PAULO 00536 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: During local elections held on Sunday, 
October 5, in over 5500 Brazilian cities and towns (but not 
in Brasilia, as the DF has a governor but no mayor), 
Brazilians voted for mayors and city councils peacefully 
without incident.  In state capitals they generally 
re-elected mayors or sent them to the second round.  Although 
President Lula's Workers Party (PT) and the Brazilian 
Democratic Movement party (PMDB- Brazil's Largest, 
non-ideological party, which is a member of the governing 
coalition) did not gain a substantial number of mayoralties 
over 2004, they are the big winners of the first round 
because the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) and the 
Democrats (DEMs), the main opposition parties, both lost 
ground.  The DEMs lost their traditional place as one of 
Brazil's four largest parties, at least in terms of mayors 
elected. Although Lula could not consistently translate his 
immense popularity into strong first-round electoral 
victories, the PT may have done well enough to strengthen his 
preferred candidate for 2010, Dilma Rouseff.  Her most likely 
opponent, Sao Paulo governor Jose Serra, received a boost 
when the Sao Paulo mayoral candidate he backed made it into 
the second round (Ref b).  Observers will look closely at the 
second round voting on Sunday October 26, particularly in Sao 
Paulo, as a signpost for the prospects of candidates and 
parties in the 2010 presidential race.  End 
summary. 
 
------------- 
Key Matchups 
------------- 
 
¶2. (U) In Sao Paulo, incumbent Mayor Gilberto Kassab (DEM), 
the candidate backed by state governor Jose Serra (PSDB), 
surprised pundits by besting both PSDB candidate Gerald 
Alckmin and PT candidate, Marta Suplicy, a former SP mayor 
and Lula Tourism Minister.  The Kassab win signals strong 
support for state governor Jose Serra among Social Democrats 
and probably ensures Serra's presidential candidacy for the 
party in 2010.  Kassab could well pull off a final round 
victory, which would be seen as a major defeat for Lula. But 
the fact that Sao Paulo is a PT stronghold and Lula,s 
overall popularity is high mean that this is no sure bet (see 
Ref B for additional analysis). 
 
¶3. (U) In Belo Horizonte Marcio Lacerda (PSB), the candidate 
backed by Minas Gerais governor and potential presidential 
candidate Aecio Neves (PSDB), saw his support drop in the 
last week, and he will now go into a second round against 
Leonard Quintao (PMDB).  This poorer-than-expected showing, 
along with the loss by Alckmin in Sao Paulo, whom Neves also 
supported, has weakened Neves's prospects as a potential PSDB 
candidate for 2010. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  In Rio de Janeiro, Federal Deputy Fernando Gabeira 
of the Green Party, known for his role in the 1969 kidnapping 
of US Ambassador Burke, made it into the second round. 
Gabeira has expressed public regret for 
his participation in the kidnapping and has and has renounced 
recourse to such illegal acts.  Even so, the USG continues to 
deny him a visa to the U.S.  The Mission has already received 
press inquiries about his status vis-a-vis the United States. 
 Gabeira is now a crusader for ethical government and 
environmentalism. 
 
¶5. (U) In Recife, as expected, PT candidate Joo da Costa won 
outright (with over 51% of the vote), even though a lower 
court disqualified him from running for office in December 
for alleged campaign violations.  Da Costa could continue to 
run because his case is on appeal, but it is still not 
certain whether he will be able to take office. 
 
----------------------- 
National Implications 
----------------------- 
 
BRASILIA 00001330  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) In the 26 state capitals, the 15 first-round victories 
mostly went to incumbents or their surrogates, and elsewhere 
incumbents who were running generally made it into the second 
round.  In capitals, incumbents from President Lula's 
Workers' Party won or went on to round two, with six 
first-round wins, more than any other party.  Analysts noted 
that the results show incumbents used the resources and power 
of incumbency effectively to gain re-election. 
 
¶8. (U) The PT, PMDB and PSDB are the big winners as far as 
the parties go.  The PT won 13 major cities (population of 
200,000 or more) and is in second-round contention in 15 
more.  The PMDB has won ten major cities and is contesting 
the second round in ten.  The PSDB has won 9 cities and 
contests in the second round in ten more.  As expected, the 
PMDB appears on track to carry the majority of municipalities 
country-wide.  The PT and its allies are contending in the 
second round in 18 of Brazil,s 20 state capitals.  The good 
PT showing lays a good base for Dilma Rousseff, as President 
Lula,s preferred candidate to succeed him, to launch her 
campaign to be the PT nominee for 2010. 
 
¶9. (U) Although Lula's Workers Party (PT) and the Brazilian 
Democratic Movement party (PMDB- Brazil's largest party and a 
member of the governing coalition) did not gain a substantial 
number of mayoralties over 2004 (473 versus 411 in 2004 for 
the PT; 1,065 versus 1,059 in 2004 for the PMDB), the 
Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) and the Democrats 
both lost ground (664 versus 870 in 2004 for the PSDB; 432 
versus 790 in 2004 for the Democrats).  The Democrats 
actually fell from their traditional perch among Brazil's 
four biggest  parties, at least in terms of mayors elected. 
Overall, the PT won in urban areas with a combined total of 
almost 19 million voters among the major cities, versus the 
PMDB, which did so in cities with a combined 14 million 
voters, and the PSDB in cities with a combined 8 million. 
Although it did modestly well nationally, the only major city 
where the PSDB won was in Curitiba, which has the sixth 
largest electorate in Brazil. 
 
¶10. (U) Observers will be watching the second round of voting 
closely to see who gains strength for the 2010 presidential 
race, already well under way informally.  In Sao Paulo, a 
Kassab victory would boost Serra and be a major defeat to 
Lula and the PT.  A victory by Suplicy, on the other hand, 
would boost the PT's chances.  In Belo Horizonte, a 
second-round victory by Lacerda would help Aecio Neves, but 
would not overcome the advantage conveyed to Serra by a 
Kassab win in Sao Paulo.  Some analysts see think Neves could 
switch from the PSDB to the PMDB, making him a viable running 
mate for Serra.  Nationally, each party's showing in large 
cities will be seen as both an indication of their popularity 
heading into 2010.  More importantly, control over 
municipalities provides resources that can help a party 
mobilize for the national election. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Few Incidents, as Military is Deployed to Provide Security 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (U) The president of the Superior Electoral Court 
reported no significant incidents during voting.  Federal 
troops were deployed in 460 towns and cities (a figure, 
according to news reports, 25 percent higher than in 2004) to 
guarantee public security during voting, most significantly 
in Rio de Janeiro, where over 4,000 troops were stationed in 
the city's large favelas (slums) to ensure that organized 
crime gangs did not disrupt or attempt to direct voting. 
 
¶11. (U) One day after the elections, the state of Pernambuco 
saw more than 10,000 protesters clash with military police 
from the state as rumors spread throughout the town of 
Vitoria de Santo Antao that votes were left uncounted, and 
that this may have derailed the election of the Brazilian 
Socialist Party (PSB) candidate for mayor, who lost by 232 
votes.  About 40 people were arrested. 
 
BRASILIA 00001330  003 OF 003 
 
 
SOBEL