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Viewing cable 08BELGRADE1123, SERBIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH PREPARES FOR ELECTION AS PATRIARCH

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08BELGRADE1123 2008-10-29 15:28 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Belgrade
VZCZCXRO8213
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #1123/01 3031528
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 291528Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0585
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001123 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KIRF PHUM PGOV PREL SR KV
SUBJECT: SERBIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH PREPARES FOR ELECTION AS PATRIARCH 
PAVLE STEPS ASIDE 
 
REFS: A) BELGRADE 600, B) 07 BELGRADE 1560, C) BELGRADE 904 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (SBU) Following its October 24 meeting, the Holy Synod of the 
Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC) announced that 94-year old Patriarch 
Pavle had submitted a request to relinquish his duties.  If, as 
anticipated, the Holy Assembly of Bishops accepts the request at its 
upcoming meeting on November 11, church law proscribes election of a 
new Patriarch within 90 days.  The installation of a new Patriarch 
while Pavle remains alive, while cause for consternation for some 
observers of the Church, is not unprecedented.  The larger battle 
looms over who will succeed Pavle, as well as the impact that this 
choice would have upon the future of the Church and its role in 
society.  End Summary. 
 
Pavle Decides to Step Aside 
--------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) On October 24, the Holy Synod released a statement 
confirming days of media speculation that Patriarch Pavle, confined 
to his room at the Military Medical Academy in Belgrade since 
November 2007, had requested to be relieved of his duties in 
accordance with Article 111 of the SOC Charter.  Pavle reportedly 
cited his health as the reason for his desire to step down from his 
lifetime appointment. 
 
3.  (U) On October 24, the daily "Blic" published a detailed account 
of the request, including that Pavle signed the document in green 
ink and in the presence of members of the Synod.  However, the 
decision by the Synod not to release the document publicly led to 
statements by Bishop Lavrentije of Sabac and others calling into 
doubt the authenticity of the document.  In response, Bishop 
Amfilohije -- Metropolitan of Montenegro and the Coastlands -- who 
presides over the Synod and technically "runs" the Church in Pavle's 
absence, stated unequivocally on October 28 that Patriarch Pavle 
signed the request on October 8 in the presence of all members of 
the Synod and that Amfilohije, Bishop Hrizostom of Zic, Bishop 
Hrizostom of Bihac and Petrovac, and Bishop Filaret of Mileseva 
counter-signed the document. 
 
4.  (SBU) Some press reports also gave voice to concerns expressed 
by the conservative wing of the SOC, headed by Bishop Artemije of 
Raska and Prizren, with strong support from the "Bosnian lobby" (Ref 
A), about electing a new Patriarch while Pavle remained alive.  The 
majority of bishops, however, appear to be comfortable with 
proceeding to a new election, frequently citing in interviews the 
cases of the first Serbian Archbishop Sveti Sava, Patriarch Jefrem 
in the 14th century, and the circumstances under which Pavle became 
Patriarch in 1990 after doctors ruled that his predecessor German 
was unable to carry out his duties.  Dragan Makojevic, director of 
the SOC charitable fund Philanthropy, told us on October 27 that he 
does not believe that this is an issue of critical importance. 
 
New Patriarch as Early as November 11 
------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (U) In the event that the Holy Synod accepts Patriarch's Pavle 
resignation at its November 11 meeting, it can proceed directly with 
the election of a new Patriarch or it can delay a vote for up to 90 
days.  In addition to the likelihood that members of the Assembly 
will raise the circumstances of Pavle's request, there is 
speculation that the complicated election process (Ref B), in which 
only full bishops have the right to vote and the final choice among 
the three candidates selected by the bishops is a blind draw, may 
come under challenge. 
 
6.  (SBU) Because there are several other issues, including the 
"frozen conflict" between Bishop Artemije and Bishop Teodosije (Ref 
C), that may require the attention of the Synod, most observers, 
including Makojevic and religion analyst Zivica Tucic, believe that 
it is not possible to predict at this time when the election would 
take place. 
 
Possible Heirs to the Throne 
---------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) As many as 10 names figure prominently in press reports 
about a possible successor to Pavle, including several that surfaced 
in November 2007 after Patriarch Pavle entered the hospital and 
again in May 2008 during the last meeting of the Holy Synod (Refs A 
and B). 
 
8.  (SBU) The front-runner at this time appears to remain 
Metropolitan Amfilohije, due to his role in the day-to-day 
activities of the Church.  Some analysts, however, believe that his 
chances were greater under the government led by former Prime 
Minister Vojislav Kostunica.  Two other highly influential bishops 
-- Bishop Irinej of Backa and Bishop Hrizostom of Zic - also are 
considered serious candidates from the old guard.  Irinej, praised 
 
BELGRADE 00001123  002 OF 002 
 
 
for his role in introducing religious studies in schools in 2001 but 
criticized for his candid stance on internal church affairs, served 
as an unofficial adviser to both former President Milosevic and 
former Prime Minister Djindjic.  Hrizostom studied theology in the 
U.S. and headed Hilandar, the Serbian monastery on Mount Athos, for 
20 years. 
 
9.  (SBU) A second group of potential su#[QmBw} this 
group, which includes Bishop Grigorije of Zahumlje and Herzegovina, 
Bishop Fotije of Dalmatia, Bishop Joanikije of Budem and Niksic, and 
Bishop Ignatije of Pozarevac and Branicevo.  Perhaps the best known 
of this group is Grigorije, who in 2006 called on the Hague 
indictees to surrender and whom Prime Minister Dodik reportedly 
supports openly. 
 
10.  (SBU) Given the current divisions within the SOC, some 
observers believe that a compromise choice may emerge if the 
factions that support candidates from the youth movement or the old 
guard fail to agree.  Seventy-eight-year old Bishop Irinej of Nis, 
vicar to Patriarch German, and Bishop Jefrem of Banja Luka, who 
likely would enjoy support of the "Bosnian lobby," are seen as 
potential compromise candidates. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
11.  (SBU) After a long period of uncertainty and at times paralysis 
due to the prolonged illness that sidelined Patriarch Pavle, it 
appears that the Serbian Orthodox Church is finally moving to 
resolve the situation.  The election of a new Patriarch, and the 
extent to which the process exacerbates existing tensions or unifies 
the Church, will determine whether the Church will be able to play a 
positive role for reconciliation in society or will be perceived as 
a divided and backward-looking institution.  End Comment. 
 
MUNTER