VZCZCXRO7400
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #1072/01 2901651
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 161651Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0521
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNS/NSC WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 001072 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: FORMER RADICAL NIKOLIC FORMS PROGRESSIVE PARTY 
 
REF: BELGRADE 928 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Former Radical and Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) leader 
Tomislav Nikolic gave his first press conference on October 8 
outlining SNS principles, which include engaging countries that 
recognize Kosovo independence.  The SNS is steadily gaining support 
among the rank-and-file of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS), despite 
continued attacks from Nikolic's former SRS associates and cold 
responses from other parties on the Serbian right.  While some of 
Nikolic's statements (such as his claim that the SNS aspires to be a 
decent part of the center-right, and his avowed support of a 
European future) are encouraging, so far they remain mostly rhetoric 
designed to make him appear more housebroken to Europe and the 
United States.  The real test will be whether Nikolic unveils a 
policy statement that rejects the policies of the Radicals, 
including the drive for a Greater Serbia and active opposition to 
the Hague War Crimes Tribunal.  He will have a chance to do so at 
the SNS founding convention on October 21.  End Summary. 
 
Confident Nikolic Assembling Support 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) At an October 8 press conference in Belgrade, former Serbian 
Radical Party (SRS) Deputy President and leader of the "Forward 
Serbia" parliamentary faction Tomislav Nikolic discussed his plans 
to launch the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) at a party congress on 
October 21.  Flanked by SNS supporters including former SRS General 
Secretary Alexander Vucic, former SRS-affiliated members of 
Parliament, writer and columnist Brana Crncevic, and law professor 
Oliver Antic, Nikolic expressed optimism that the SNS would take 
power in Serbia within a year.  Nikolic listed his priorities as 
leading a progressive Serbia that protected national interests, 
created a better life for citizens, acted as a bridge between East 
and West, and cooperated with all countries that did not recognize 
Kosovo independence.  Nikolic added, however, that the SNS would be 
ready for "tough discussions" with countries that recognized 
Kosovo's independence.  Notably absent from Nikolic's comments at 
the press conference was any reference to a Greater Serbia policy, 
although he had mentioned it in press interviews after his split 
with the SRS. 
 
¶3.  (U) Nikolic announced that the SNS had collected the signatures 
of 10,000 citizens to date and expected 50,000 supporters by October 
21, which would be the basis for local branches in every Serbian 
municipality.  He also informed the press that he had invited the 
leadership of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and New Serbia 
(NS) to discuss the formation of an opposition bloc.  Nikolic stated 
that NS leader Vladimir Ilic had accepted the invitation while DSS 
had not responded.  The SNS was further buoyed by a poll released 
after the press conference by Strategic Marketing that showed the 
SNS receiving 21% support of all voters compared to 28.9% for the DS 
and 7.2% for the SRS.  (Comment:  The SRS and SNS numbers combined 
however, still add up to less than their showing in the May 11 
elections.  End Comment.) 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The press conference capped a week of intense publicity 
for the SNS split.  SNS spokesman Nejbosa Stefanovic told reporters 
on October 2 that about 75% of former SRS members and local boards 
had joined Nikolic's movement, though post has been unable to 
confirm this figure.  Nikolic told the daily paper "Blic" on October 
4 that the SRS would effectively no longer exist by the end of that 
week.  On October 6, in a widely anticipated move, former SRS 
General Secretary Alexander Vucic announced on Pink TV that he would 
join the SNS as Nikolic's deputy.  Though Vucic announced that he 
would withdraw from public life when announcing his resignation on 
September 14, our contacts tell us that Vucic has been quietly 
drafting the SNS party platform over the past few weeks. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) There are also signs that SNS is gaining access to 
financial resources to support the party.  According to one 
well-placed credible journalist, Serbian tycoons Miroslav Miskovic 
and Milan Beko are keeping SNS well-funded.  Other observers and 
diplomatic contacts claim that Nikolic is receiving support from 
French donors and is currently negotiating with one of Germany's 
party foundations for an assistance package.  (Comment:  A 
representative of France's National Front Party had campaigned for 
Nikolic both during this year's presidential and local elections. 
End Comment.) 
 
Taking Heat from SRS, Seselj 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) The growth of Nikolic's movement has been met with harsh 
reaction from SRS quarters.  SRS deputies have been repeating many 
of the claims that were heard immediately after the split, such as 
Nikolic being on the payroll of intelligence services and assisting 
 
BELGRADE 00001072  002 OF 003 
 
 
ICTY.  SRS President Vojislav Seselj weighed in on the public debate 
when his September 8 memo to the SRS Central Fatherland Board 
appeared as a paid advertisement in the local daily "Kurir" on 
October 1.  The rhetoric later turned more personal with SRS deputy 
leader Gordana Pop-Lazic claiming that Nikolic was "crying on my 
shoulder when he had problems with his mistress."  SRS deputies 
seized on press reports of Nikolic's meeting with the Ambassador to 
derisively label Nikolic's followers as "Munter's witnesses."  The 
Ambassador had met with Nikolic -- at the latter's request -- to 
discuss Nikolic's plans to create a modern center-right European 
party. 
 
¶7.  (U) The SRS has also begun to push the dispute with Nikolic into 
the courts.  The SRS on October 13 filed suit against Nikolic and 
Banca Intesa at the Trade Court in Belgrade claiming that Nikolic 
improperly signed a four-year loan agreement worth roughly 630,000 
on behalf of the party without the approval of the Central 
Fatherland Board.  SRS spokesman Zoran Krasic stressed the loan, 
signed in March of this year, would cost the SRS a total of 850,000 
and contained an "interest clause" stating that Banca Intesa would 
gain unlimited rights over SRS property in the event of an 
annexation or rift in the SRS as a legal entity.  Nikolic denied 
that his actions were illegal and claimed the accusations were 
"despicable lies." 
 
¶8.  (U) Although the SRS is apparently unable to challenge the 
mandates of National Assembly members who switched to Nikolic's 
caucus (reftel), it has succeeded in terminating the mandates of SNS 
members of other bodies who were ejected from the SRS.  On October 
8, Nikolic confirmed that seven mandates in the Belgrade City 
Assembly were returned to the SRS, leaving the SNS without 
representation.  Liberal Democratic Party, Serbian Socialist Party, 
and DSS members joined the SRS in the vote terminating the mandates 
while DS members abstained, according to SNS spokesman Stefanovic. 
At the national level, the SRS is reportedly seeking to rebalance 
the division of parliamentary committee chairmanships.  G-17 Plus 
whip Susana Grubjesic told us that the SRS wanted to chair the 
Finance and Administrative Committees; the latter, currently headed 
by Nikolic and responsible for mandate-related questions, was a 
non-starter, she said. 
 
Parties Wary of SNS, Observers Urge Skepticism 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Some parties on the Serbian right have sought to cast 
aspersions on the motivations and durability of the SNS.  Serbian 
Renewal Movement (SPO) Vice President and Diaspora Minister Srdjan 
Sreckovic told the Ambassador on September 29 that the SNS was not a 
modern political party and that Nikolic himself could not be trusted 
or rehabilitated.  DSS officials told us that they were wary of 
cooperating with SNS because "one political move does not make us 
forget what these people did last year or ten years ago."  Our 
contacts tell us that the NS's Ilic is willing to cooperate with the 
SNS but will cautiously wait to see how viable Nikolic's movement 
becomes. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Political observers are warning that Nikolic's movement 
may enjoy only limited traction in the long-term. Veteran journalist 
Braca Grubacic commented that SNS was making a perilous effort to 
win voters from all edges of the political spectrum by advocating 
party principles on issues such as Kosovo, corruption, and economic 
policy that were almost indistinguishable from those of other 
parties.  In Grubacic's view, it is unclear whether Nikolic is 
personally capable of being the kind of leader who can successfully 
walk such a political tightrope. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Political commentator Misha Djurkovic also questions 
Nikolic's ability to successfully lead the SNS. He noted to us that 
the SNS has thus far not yet attracted capable intellectuals 
necessary to transform SNS into a serious movement.  Describing 
Nikolic as well-intentioned but unaware of how others are 
manipulating him, Djurkovic predicted that the SNS would gain no 
more than 8-10% of the electorate in the long-term. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Nikolic's break with Seselj has gotten a lot of 
attention, but polling numbers do not demonstrate any new 
groundswell of support for him, his new party or his ideology. 
While his pro-European statements and professed willingness to talk 
with countries that have recognized Kosovo are encouraging, he has 
yet to take concrete steps to show he is really serious.  Detractors 
-- of which he has many -- maintain that his Europe talk is cheap 
and that until he publicly disavows dreams and schemes of a Greater 
Serbia and demonstrates a willingness to work with the Hague War 
Crimes Tribunal, he should be approached with caution.  Regardless, 
we need to know more about Nikolic and the electorate to whom he is 
attractive and will follow developments related to him and his new 
 
BELGRADE 00001072  003 OF 003 
 
 
party very closely.  The October 21 party convention should provide 
us more answers.  End Comment. 
 
MUNTER