VZCZCXRO3553
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #1059/01 2841618
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 101618Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0511
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNS/NSC WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001059 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR MK MW KV
SUBJECT: SERBIA: NEIGHBORS' KOSOVO RECOGNITION UNDERMINES ICJ 
"VICTORY" 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The Government of Serbia reacted strongly to the 
coordinated announcements late on October 9 by neighbors Montenegro 
and Macedonia to recognize Kosovo, declaring the Montenegrin and 
Macedonian ambassadors personae non gratae.  The new recognitions, 
coming the day after the UN General Assembly voted in favor of 
Serbia's proposal to refer the legality of Kosovo's independence to 
the International Court of Justice (ICJ), tempered Serbian 
satisfaction with that outcome and provoked renewed criticism by the 
opposition of government strategy.  Given that the ICJ case will 
continue to preoccupy Serbian diplomacy, it is encouraging that the 
GOS also recognized the need to look and move forward toward Europe, 
as demonstrated by its decision at the October 9 government session 
to return its ambassadors to the United States and other non-EU 
countries that have recognized Kosovo.  End Summary. 
 
Long-Awaited "Great Diplomatic Victory" 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Serbian press, politicians, and commentators broadly 
characterized the UNGA vote as a triumph of diplomacy, a victory for 
David against Goliath, and proof that Serbia has moved beyond the 
times when it settled scores on the battlefield. 
 
¶3. (U) In their public statements, President Tadic and Foreign 
Minister Jermic praised the decision as affirmation of the primacy 
of international law, while stressing that much works remains.  In 
remarks in New York after the vote, Jeremic expressed confidence 
that the ICJ would find in Serbia's favor, which he expected would 
lead to new negotiations about the status of Kosovo.  Tadic referred 
to the upcoming ICJ process as a marathon but limited his comments 
on future steps to re-emphasizing explicitly that Serbia would never 
accept Kosovo's independence. 
 
¶4. (SBU) DCM coincidentally was meeting with MFA Political Director 
Boris Stefanovic, who had a different reaction when the news came 
over his cell phone.  Adding up the numbers, he saw that those who 
did not vote yes (nays, abstentions and no-shows) clearly 
outnumbered the yes vote.  In response to DCM's remark that the 
Serbs had "lost," he said, "yes, when you leave I'll go join my 
colleagues who already are crying."  When asked how the GOS planned 
to prepare for the ensuing ICJ process, he stared back blankly.  DCM 
warned him to be prepared for reminding the people of Serbia of the 
dark days of Milosevic as the ICJ case progressed. 
 
¶5. (U) In one of the more interesting reactions to the ICJ referral, 
opposition leader Tomislav Nikolic, who recently left the Serbian 
Radical Party (SRS) to form his own Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), 
welcomed an ICJ opinion on the legality of Kosovo's declaration of 
independence, while warning of potential danger: "In that court, 
there is a danger that the issue of the absolute endangerment of all 
human rights, which allegedly was the case with the Albanians in 
Serbia's territory, might be raised.  There is a practice, which is 
applied in the world, that if people have no rights in a particular 
country, then they have the right to break away and create their own 
state." 
 
Reaction to Recognitions 
------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The decision by Montenegro and Macedonia to recognize 
Kosovo provoked a swift and emotional Serbian response which 
diverted attention from the ICJ outcome.  The reaction to 
Montenegro's decision, foreshadowed by Foreign Minister Jeremic's 
comments before the UN vote that recognition by Podgorica would be a 
"stab in the back," far surpassed in rhetoric the response to the 
decision by Macedonia. 
 
¶7. (U) Jeremic, in announcing the decision to expel Montenegrin 
Ambassador Anka Vojvodic, characterized the move as an adequate and 
rational response, given that countries of the region bear 
particular responsibility for preservation of peace and stability in 
the Balkans.  Jeremic told B-92 that it was done because "the 
decision of the regime in Podgorica came after the vote at the 
General Assembly" and therefore was an attempt to prejudice the ICJ 
verdict.  President Tadic expressed confidence that the majority of 
Montenegrin citizens did not support their government's decision and 
criticized the alleged political pressure under which the decision 
was taken. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The British Ambassador told us on October 10 that he viewed 
the decision to expel the Montenegrin Ambassador as bullying and not 
consistent with the terms of the Stabilization and Association 
Agreement (SAA).  He expected that London would react strongly. 
 
¶9. (U) Political parties of all persuasions decried the latest 
 
BELGRADE 00001059  002 OF 002 
 
 
recognitions of Kosovo, while reserving particularly harsh words for 
Montenegro.  Deputy Head of the SRS Dragan Todorovic called the 
authorities in Podgorica traitors carrying out orders as a U.S. 
colony, while New Serbia (NS) MP Miroslav Markicevic said that the 
decision was the most disgraceful act in the history of Montenegro. 
Members of the pro-European ruling coalition, such as G17 Plus 
caucus head Suzana Grubjesic and Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) 
caucus head Branko Ruzic, also criticized the decision.  In 
contrast, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) head Cedomir Jovanovic 
called the decision to expel the Montenegrin Ambassador 
counterproductive and a threat to Serbia's efforts to integrate into 
Europe. 
 
¶10. (U) The opposition and MPs from United Serbia (JS), part of the 
ruling coalition, called on October 10 for a special session of 
parliament at which government representatives would explain how the 
GOS would respond to the recognitions.  JS head Dragan Markovic 
Palma proposed declaring Montenegrin President Filip Vujanovic and 
Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic personae non gratae and freezing 
economic ties.  Both former PM Vojislav Kostunica and former Kosovo 
Minister Slobodan Samardzic of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) 
claimed that the timing of the recognitions immediately after the 
UNGA vote demonstrated the ineffectiveness of the GOS approach, and 
called on the government to sue individual states that recognized 
Kosovo. 
 
¶11. (U) Reaction to the Macedonian recognition was muted in 
comparison, with virtually no commentary in the press.  Serbian 
Ambassador to Skopje Zoran Popovic presented the Macedonian MFA with 
a diplomatic note protesting the decision and shortly thereafter the 
GOS declared Macedonian Ambassador Aleksandar Vasilevski persona non 
grata. 
 
Ambassadors to Return 
--------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) In the buildup to the ICJ vote, the GOS told us repeatedly 
that an UNGA referral of its proposal to the ICJ would allow it to 
carry out a series of steps, including normalizing diplomatic 
relations with the non-EU states that recognized Kosovo, engaging in 
talks with Pristina on non-status related matters, and cooperating 
on the deployment of the EU Rule of Law (EULEX) mission. 
 
¶13. (SBU) At its first session following the ICJ vote, the 
government decided on October 9 to return its ambassadors to non-EU 
countries that had recognized Kosovo.  (Ambassadors were returned to 
EU countries and Norway in July.) Justice Minister Snezana Malovic 
told us on October 10 that this decision also will allow cooperation 
with diplomatic missions in Belgrade to resume. 
 
¶14. (U) The decision provoked a sharp reaction from the SRS, which 
criticized the government for returning the ambassadors on the same 
day that Macedonia and Montenegro recognized Kosovo.  Stating that 
government policy amounts to "throwing dust in the eyes of 
citizens," the SRS called for the U.S. and British Ambassadors to be 
declared personae non gratae as well. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Given the nature of relations between Serbia and its 
neighbors, in particular its deep emotional and historical 
attachment to Montenegro, the strength of the reaction to the latest 
recognitions of Kosovo was not unexpected.  Belgrade is particularly 
incensed at the timing, as it undercuts its argument that the start 
of an ICJ review process would freeze recognitions.  The 
late-breaking news of the Nobel Prize for Peace going to Ahtisaari 
will also be sure to tamp down feelings of victory in the Jeremic 
camp.  It is encouraging that, despite the tension, the GOS has 
delivered on one of its promises to look forward by restoring 
relations with the United States and other countries.  This first 
step must be followed by other more substantial moves on issues such 
as EULEX if Serbia truly is to move closer to the EU.  End Comment. 
 
MUNTER