VZCZCXRO6454
OO RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHKB #0986/01 2891722
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 151722Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0196
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES  PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 3090
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 1153

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000986 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SITREP#3 21:00 
BAKU 
 
REF: A. BAKU 981 
     ¶B. BAKU 985 
 
¶1. (SBU)  After a largely uneventful day of voting across 
Azerbaijan, polls closed at 19:00 local time.  Vote counting 
was initiated immediately thereafter.  Early indications are 
that the tabulation process is being rushed, perhaps as a 
result of pressure from the Central Election Commission or 
other entities in Baku that have pressed for quick reporting 
to district commissions.  The count is currently taking place 
at 5,000 polling stations across the country, with about 
1,000 - 1,400 registered voters per precinct.  Polling 
stations, upon finishing the vote count and completing the 
voting protocol, must report results to district election 
commissions, which number 125 across the nation.  District 
election commissions, in turn, will report results to the 
Central Election Commission in Baku. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Preliminary information from the Central Election 
Commission, as well as input from the Embassy's monitoring 
teams in the field, shows that voter turnout is averaging 
about 65-75%, or much higher than many pre-election observers 
predicted.  President Ilham Aliyev appears to be receiving a 
large majority of votes, perhaps within the 80-90% range. 
Pro-GOAJ media are reporting a heavy turnout, based on input 
given to the Central Election Commission, and noting that 
exit polls, conducted by government-friendly NGOs, 
corresponded with their findings.  Moscow's ITAR-TASS 
reported at 15:24 GMT, or 19:24 Baku time, that exit polls 
show that Ilham Aliyev is winning the vote with 82.6%. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Of 19 Embassy monitoring teams, two have reported 
substantial violations or irregularities.  In Sumgayit, 
Embassy observers at two polling stations witnessed precinct 
workers removing ballot boxes and voting lists from the 
premises, and exiting through a back door.  International and 
domestic observers were not allowed to follow.  Domestic 
observers at these sites complained of repeated ballot 
stuffing all day.  Embassy observers witnessed similar antics 
in Lankaran.  At that polling station, precinct workers 
claimed to have counted the ballots in public within six 
minutes, then retreated behind a closed door, accompanied by 
a ruling party official and a number of unknown persons. 
Upon emerging, they suggested that the vast majority of votes 
were cast for President Aliyev. 
 
¶4. (SBU) In Baku, Embassy officers contacted the Central 
Election Commission and Presidential Apparat to voice concern 
over these actions.  Embassy observers in Sumgayit called the 
Embassy shortly thereafter to note that precinct officials 
there had received a highly critical telephone call from 
Baku, and were then verbally harassed by precinct election 
officials.  Presidential Apparat Legal Advisor Shahin Aliyev 
then called Embassy officials in Baku to state that the vote 
at the two precincts in Sumgayit had been annulled.  GOAJ 
officials continue to investigate problems in Lankaran. 
Meanwhile, U.K. Embassy observers reported irregularities in 
vote tabulations at polling stations in Ganja and Sheki, but 
later said that the infractions were not major.  U.S. Embassy 
monitors in these cities -- observing at different polling 
stations -- have not reported significant problems. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In three other polling stations, Embassy officials 
reported signs of ballot stuffing, including stacks of 
ballots stuck together inside the ballot box and suspicious 
signatures on voter lists, but did not see actually any extra 
ballots being put into boxes.  In Tovuz, in Northwestern 
Azerbaijan, Embassy observers witnessed repeat voters. 
Before the count, a precinct captain fielded a call that 
appeared to criticize him for a low election day turnout. 
During the count, 20% of ballots, some of which were blank, 
were deemed invalid, without group consensus.  At the same 
time, other embassy teams reported orderly vote counts, 
without incident.  Precinct captains offered observers copies 
of protocols, which were accepted and brought to the Embassy. 
 One U.K. Embassy observer offered significant praise for the 
conduct of the election in Baku. 
 
¶6. (SBU) NDI representatives told Embassy officials that they 
had had a cordial meeting with officials of the Presidential 
Apparat this evening.  Government officials wanted to hear 
their concerns or criticisms of the elections firsthand, and 
gather their general impression of the day's events.  Apparat 
advisors then repeated their concerns about the Election 
 
BAKU 00000986  002 OF 002 
 
 
Monitoring Center (EMC), which is conducting a nationwide 
parallel vote tabulation.  EMC is not registered as a legal 
entity in Azerbaijan.  Government officials continued to 
suggest that EMC cannot operate or conduct business as an 
organization.  Rather, its members, as citizens of 
Azerbaijan, could conduct the PVT and report on results. 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Opposition parties in Azerbaijan have been rather 
quiet, thus far not issuing any major election day 
announcements.  Earlier this week, the Musavat Party and 
other groups that did not participate in the election called 
for a public demonstration on Saturday, October 18.  A venue 
has not been announced, though organizers suggested that the 
rally would take place in central Baku.  It is unclear 
whether these groups would be able to attract a sizeable 
crowd to the streets. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Two American citizens appeared on Azerbaijan's Lider 
TV this evening, announcing that they had observed voting 
over the course of the day and had found no significant 
shortcomings in the conduct of the election.  The man and 
woman were identified as employees of USAID. Embassy notes, 
however, that the two are not affiliated with the Embassy or 
USAID in Azerbaijan.  The problem may have been related to 
interpretation.  Thirty American citizens, calling themselves 
the "American Observation Group, have come to Azerbaijan to 
monitor the elections.  This group is not affiliated with the 
U.S. Government. 
DERSE