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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 002071 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM KZ
SUBJECT:  KAZAKHSTAN:  PHONE CONVERSATIONS RELEASED BY ALIYEV RAISE 
SUSPICIONS ABOUT OPPOSITION LEADER TUYAKBAY 
 
¶1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for public Internet. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  President Nazarbayev's ex-son-in-law, Rakhat 
Aliyev, posted on the Internet recordings of alleged phone 
conversations involving former Presidential Administration Chief 
Adylbek Dzhaksybekov, former National Security Committee (KNB) Chief 
Nartay Dutbayev, and opposition National Social Democratic Party 
(OSDP) leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbay.  If authentic, the conversations, 
which appear to date from 2006-07, provide evidence that Tuyakbay 
was closely cooperating with the authorities, actively seeking 
meetings with Nazarbayev, and receiving financial support from the 
government.  Responding to the release of the recordings, Tuyakbay 
did not deny that he sought meetings with Nazarbayev; however, he 
argued that any party work requires dealing with the authorities, 
and maintained that OSDP is financed solely by private sources. 
While Azat party leader Bulat Abilov rose to Tuyakbay's defense in a 
newspaper interview, leading opposition journalist Sergei Duvanov 
told us that the recordings confirmed his own suspicions that 
Tuyakbay is a "government spy in the opposition camp."  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
OPPOSITION LEADER TUYAKBAY ON GOVERNMENT'S PAYROLL? ... 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  On or about October 1, President Nazarbayev's 
ex-son-in-law, Rakhat Aliyev, posted on his Internet website 
(kaztoday.livejournal.com) recordings of alleged telephone 
conversations involving former Presidential Administration Chief 
Adylbek Dzhaksybekov, former KNB Chief Nartay Dutbayev, and 
opposition National Social Democratic Party (OSDP) leader Zharmakhan 
Tuyakbay.  The recordings were accompanied by transcripts of the 
conversations.  Both the recordings and transcripts have since been 
removed from the website, but we obtained the transcripts for 
review.  The conversations appear to have taken place during 2006-07 
and, if authentic, indicate that Tuyakbay, who was the opposition's 
united presidential candidate in the 2005 elections, was closely 
cooperating with the government, actively seeking meetings with 
President Nazarabyev, and was receiving financing from the 
government. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In the transcript of the first conversation, Zhaksybekov 
and Dutbayev discuss Tuyakbay's attempts to meet with President 
Nazarbayev.  Zhaksybekov tells Dutbayev that Tuyakbay tried to get a 
meeting with the "boss" by going through the chief of Presidential 
Security.  Zhaksybekov, who appears to have heard about the request 
from Nazarbayev himself, berates Dutbayev for letting his "charge" 
go directly to Nazarbayev.  "We have to know the issues so we can 
prepare the boss," he says.  Dutbayev says that Tuyakbay wants to 
talk about registration of his party, to which Zhaksybekov responds 
that Justice Minister Baliyeva is already working on speeding up the 
process.  Dutbayev says that Tuyakbay told him he has an 
"arrangement" with "the boss" about regular meetings, and goes on to 
complain to Dzhaksybekov that he is "sick and tired" of Tuyakbay's 
daily phone calls.  Zhaksybekov promises to follow up on the party 
registration issue, but asks Dutbayev to keep a closer eye on 
Tuyakbay. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The two following conversations appear to be between 
Dutbayev and Tuyakbay, in which the two set up a meeting that also 
involves a third, unidentified person.  In a subsequent 
conversation, Dutbayev reports back to Zhaksybekov that the meeting 
went well and that a certain Dzhumakarov -- presumably the 
unidentified third party -- "brought the cash."  Ostensibly talking 
about Tuyakbay, Dutbayev says "he is in a good mood, but complains 
that the money is not enough."  Zhaksybekov retorts that nobody ever 
has enough.  In the transcript of the final conversation, 
Zhaksybekov tells Dutbayev that his "charge" tried to see "the boss" 
again, but that he recommended against the meeting since "he hasn't 
proven himself yet."  Zhaksybekov says he will meet "this person" in 
Almaty to discuss the way forward, but goes on to say that "he'll 
likely only want to talk about money." 
 
 
ASTANA 00002071  002 OF 002 
 
 
... OR SIMPLY A SMEAR CAMPAIGN? 
 
¶6. (U) In an October 3 interview to the KazTag news agency, Tuyakbay 
described the recordings as "part of a plan aimed at discrediting me 
and our party."  He did not deny that he sought meetings with 
President Nazarbayev.  "Any party activity inevitably involves 
contact with various people, including those in power," he said. 
"For the sake of the party and general democratic principles, I am 
continuing this work even now, and it is in defense of this that I 
initiated a request for a meeting with the President at the 
beginning of 2007."  Asked about his receiving financing from the 
government, Tuyakbay replied that the transcripts are aimed 
specifically at "casting doubts on the independent financing of our 
party."  He maintained that OSDP is backed by several private 
individuals "who do not belong to the power hierarchy," but whose 
names cannot be revealed because of the "situation we have in 
Kazakhstan."  "I can assure anybody in the government who believes 
they've tamed our party that their attempts have failed," contended 
Tuyakbay. 
 
ABILOV RISES TO TUYAKBAY'S DEFENSE ... 
 
¶7. (U)  Opposition Azat party head Bulat Abilov -- a sometime 
partner, sometime rival of Tuyakbay's -- rose to Tuyakbay's defense 
in an October 10 interview in "Delovaya Nedelya" newspaper.  He 
categorically denied that Tuyakbay is controlled by the government. 
Abilov admitted the authenticity of a recording of a conversation 
between himself and Dzhaksybekov -- which was also posted on 
Aliyev's website but has since been removed.  In that conversation, 
Abilov asked for a meeting for himself and two other leaders of Azat 
-- known then as True Ak Zhol -- with Dzhaksybekov in order to 
discuss an unnamed "political issue."  Dzhaksybekov agreed, but 
insisted that the meeting be in his office, rather than on "neutral 
ground," as Abilov requested.  Abilov explained to "Delovaya 
Nedelya" that his party actually had several meetings with 
Zhaksybekov in 2007.  According to Abilov, in one instance, they 
requested the Presidential Administration's permission to hold a 
rally in Almaty to mark the one-year anniversary of the 
assassination of opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbayev, and in 
another instance, they sought guarantees that the August 2007 
parliamentary elections would be fair. 
 
... BUT DUVANOV'S SUSPICIONS ARE CONFIRMED 
 
¶8.  (SBU) During an October 10 meeting in Almaty, leading opposition 
journalist Sergei Duvanov told us that the telephone conversations 
had completely discredited Tuyakbay -- and confirmed his own 
suspicions, dating back several years, that Tuyakbay is a 
"government spy in the opposition camp."  Duvanov had listened to 
the actual recordings on-line and said he had no doubt that they 
were authentic, with Dzhaksybekov clearly identifiable by his 
distinctive voice and style. 
 
¶9. (SBU) COMMENT:  It is no secret that most of Kazakhstan's 
opposition leaders maintain extensive contacts with the government 
and on occasion meet with President Nazarbayev.  Thus, the real 
question raised by the recorded conversations is whether Tuyakbay 
has been on the government payroll.  The contents of the recordings, 
if authentic, are in any event not fully conclusive on this issue. 
In releasing the recordings, Rakhat Aliyev was likely aiming to 
discredit Nazarbayev for manipulating the political process, rather 
than trying to bring down Tuyakbay.  END COMMENT. 
 
HOAGLAND