VZCZCXRO7668
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHUJA #2126/01 3030736
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 290736Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4299
INFO RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 0155
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002126 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EE/TPP/ABT/ATP SPECK 
DEPT PASS TO USTR-AGAMA 
TREASURY FOR PETERS AND HALL 
DOC FOR 3317/ITA/OA/KBURRESS AND 3130/USFC/OIO/ ANESA/DHARRIS 
USDA/FAS FOR MAURICE HOUSE, DOROTHY ADAMS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAGR ECON ETRD EAID EFIN PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: FAVORABLE RAINY SEASON INCREASES GRAIN YIELDS 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  Foreign Agriculture Service Attach (FASOff) and 
EconOff visited Nigerian's grain belt from October 13-17. It was 
noted that Nigeria's grain production in 2008 is up sharply from the 
poor harvest of 2007, especially for corn, because farmers planted 
larger areas and rainfall patterns were consistent and well 
distributed during the growing season.  Larger harvests have led to 
a drop in grain prices in recent weeks.  A good harvest season is a 
positive for farmers; however they face problems with storing crops. 
 Due to a lack of storage facilities and processing capabilities, 
farmers are forced to sell crops when supplies are high and prices 
low.  Many farmers are forming cooperatives to improve access to 
fertilizers and storage containers.  The good harvest should allay 
fears of possible food supply shortages in 2008 and early 2009.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) EconOff and FASOff visited Nigeria's grain belt (Nassarawa, 
Plateau, Kano, Katsina and Kaduna States) October 13-17 to meet 
local officials, and assess the harvest.  Grain production in 2008 
is up sharply from the poor 2007 harvest, with large increases in 
corn, sorghum, millet, soybeans, rice and cowpea.  These more 
bountiful harvests were a result of two major factors: beneficial 
rain fall patterns and expanded planted area.  However, growth was 
limited somewhat in 2008 due to the poor availability of fertilizer 
(Septel). 
 
Beneficial Rainfall Patterns 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) In 2007 rainfall patterns in the key growing areas of 
northern Nigeria were erratic.  The rains ended suddenly at the end 
of in September-early for Nigeria--and the late-season dryness 
negatively impacted yields. 
 
¶4. (U) Rainfall has been nearly optimal for key crops during the 
2008 growing season.  Although rainfall amounts were down from 2007, 
there were more rainy days (58 compared to 50 in 2007) and the rain 
was evenly distributed throughout the growing season.  Also, in 2008 
rain in the north extended longer than usual, and as of October 17 
rain was still falling in Kano.  This late rain will boost yields in 
late-maturing sorghum. 
 
Expanded Planted Areas 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Because grain prices were very high in 2007, farmers planted 
larger areas, including new land and switched to more grain crops in 
2008, which also has led to increased harvests.  Some farmers have 
continued to shift from cotton planting to grains because demand for 
cotton is down as a result of the textile industry's collapse.  Corn 
planting areas have continued to expand farther north into 
traditional sorghum areas due to use of new early maturing corn 
varieties.  Moreover, returns and yields for corn were significantly 
higher than for sorghum. 
 
Prices Begin to Fall 
---------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) Bountiful harvests have caused prices to fall from the very 
high 2007 levels.  All major crops (with the exception of cotton) 
significantly increased production in 2008, with corn up 25%, and 
millet, sorghum, soybean and rice up more than 10%.  In the past few 
weeks prices for soybeans have fallen 20% while those of other 
grains have fallen by nearly 30%.  Traders at the Dawanau 
International Grains Market in Kano (the largest grain market in 
West Africa) told EconOff and FASOff that prices are expected to 
continue falling in coming weeks as new crop supplies hit the 
market. 
 
Storage and Processing Capabilities 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) EconOff and FASOff visited the Plateau State Ministry of 
Agriculture and Natural Resources on October 13. The state 
commissioner reported the harvest was one of the best due to good 
rains and the absence of flooding.  However, there is a problem in 
handling the post harvest crops because farmers do not have 
processing capabilities--a problem for most farmers in Nigeria. 
According to the Commissioner, Plateau State produces nearly all of 
the potatoes in the country but has no capability to process 
potatoes into chips.  The state will partner with an Israeli 
agricultural company and set up three farm training centers for 
diary, vegetables, and other crops. 
 
ABUJA 00002126  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶8. (U) Farmers and local officials lamented that insufficient 
storage facilities and the lack of processing are major problems 
nationwide.  To better cope some farmers are forming cooperatives to 
find storage facilities.  Several state governments are buying crops 
from farmers and storing them in state owned silos.  The lack of 
storage facilities results in farmers being forced to sell all their 
crops at the worst possible time - at the end of the harvest, when 
supply is large and price low.  Concurrently, local and state 
governments buy the crops from the farmers when prices are low, and 
resell them in the market when prices increase. 
 
¶9. (U) This message was coordinated with ConGen Lagos. 
 
SANDERS