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courage is contagious

Viewing cable 08WELLINGTON316, NEW ZEALAND ELECTIONS 2008 - AUCKLAND RACE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08WELLINGTON316 2008-09-26 04:45 2011-04-28 00:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Wellington
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHWL #0316/01 2700445
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 260445Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5447
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 5267
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JCS WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000316 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/ANP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2028 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NZ
SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND ELECTIONS 2008 - AUCKLAND RACE 
SYMBOLIZES DEPTH OF LABOUR'S TROUBLES 
 
Classified By: Consul General John Desrocher for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d 
) 
 
This message was drafted by ConGen Auckland and approved by 
Embassy Wellington. 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  The National Party is making a serious play 
for Auckland Central, an electorate that has been in nearly 
uninterrupted Labour control for almost a century.  That a 
28-year-old virtual unknown has a serious chance of ousting a 
Labour stalwart demonstrates just how vulnerable the Labour 
Party is in this election cycle.  End summary. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Wealthy, Childless, Liberal Auckland 
------------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C) Auckland Central is the heart of New Zealand's 
largest city and commercial center, and includes the 
high-rises of its central business district, some of its 
oldest residential neighborhoods, and the country's largest 
port.  While Auckland Central may prove a bellwether in the 
upcoming election, it is not at all a microcosm of the 
country.  It is a diverse electorate, encompassing the 
students of Auckland University, the old money of upper end 
Herne Bay and Westmere, the transient apartment-dwellers of 
downtown, and the hippies of Waiheke Island. 
 
3.  (SBU) The electorate is dominated by well-educated young 
adults.  It has the lowest proportions of children and 
pensioners of any electorate in the country, but the highest 
proportion of people in their twenties.  It is the 
third-wealthiest electorate in the country, but is socially 
liberal.  It ranks last of all New Zealand electorates in the 
percentage of inhabitants identifying themselves as 
Christian, and first among those who ascribe to no religion 
at all.  It has the country's lowest share of married 
residents, but highest share of partners in non-marriage 
relationships.  It has a higher ratio of single people than 
any other electorate.  Despite its liberal history, Auckland 
Central has been moving to the right, most notably in the 
latest mayoral elections that were won by John Banks, a 
conservative former National MP. 
 
------------- 
The Incumbent 
------------- 
 
4.  (C) Auckland Central MP Judith Tizard inherited one of 
New Zealand's best known political names.  Her mother, Dame 
Catherine Tizard, is a former governor general and mayor of 
Auckland.  Her father, Bob Tizard, is a former Labour deputy 
prime minister and minister of finance.  Along with the name, 
Tizard inherited her father's parliamentary seat in the 
Auckland suburb of Panmure in 1990 and has been in parliament 
ever since. 
 
5.  (C) Despite her long parliamentary tenure and various 
associate minister titles, Tizard has struggled to make her 
own mark.  Most recently, she has served as the Minister of 
Consumer Affairs and Associate Minister for Arts, Culture, 
and Heritage.  She seems to be best known not as an MP but as 
"Dame Catherine's daughter."  Her political profile has been 
controversial and Tizard is no stranger to negative 
headlines; when giving interviews, Tizard is unscripted and 
tends to ignore her media staff's advice.  She made headlines 
on ANZAC Day in April 2007 when she pubicly criticized the 
Returning Services Association (RSA) for its wreath-laying 
program during the annual remembrance ceremony.  She's been 
criticized for allegedly extravagant travel habits.  Her 
highest rank, as a non-cabinet Minister for Auckland Issues, 
was eliminated recently in a government reshuffle.  Tizard 
drew howls of derision when she suggested that the post was 
eliminated because the city's "issues" had been resolved. 
(Note:  Auckland traffic has become increasingly congested 
over the years with no solution in sight.  Also, Aucklanders 
continue to be frustrated by ever-rising property taxes that 
pay for bloated and overlapping municipal authorities.  End 
note.) 
 
6.  (C) The conventional wisdom is that Tizard's political 
durability is entirely due to her family's reputation and her 
friendship with Prime Minister Helen Clark, to whom she has 
been close for many years.  Clark lived for a time with the 
Tizard family; Tizard's brother has worked on construction 
projects at Clark's home.  There is probably no MP closer and 
more loyal to Clark than Tizard.  While that friendship was 
 
once clearly helpful to Tizard, in recent years there has 
been a backlash.  Tizard is increasingly dismissed as Clark's 
(literal) bag carrier.  It is worth noting that, despite her 
friendship with Clark, Tizard was this year demoted from from 
18th to 38th place on Labour's list. 
 
7.  (C) Despite signs the political winds are shifting 
against her and her party, Tizard exuded confidence during a 
recent lunch with the CG.  She seemed sure voters would 
understand her hard work on Auckland issues and predicted 
(accurately) that the polling gap between Labour and National 
would narrow as the election approached.  There can be no 
doubt that she knows her electorate.  Seated with the CG at 
the window of a cafe, she made a point of personally greeting 
many passersby by name. 
 
-------------- 
The Challenger 
-------------- 
 
8. (C) The contrasts between Tizard and her National Party 
challenger are stark.  Nikki Kaye, at 28, is almost half 
Tizard's age.  Tizard comes from a political dynasty with 
deep roots in Auckland; she doesn't hide her unhappiness at 
having to leave Auckland to take care of her parliamentary 
duties in Wellington.  Kaye does not come from a political 
family and, while an Auckland native, has been away at 
university or overseas since she was seventeen. Kaye only 
returned to New Zealand from London late in 2007.  Finally, 
while the Tizard name is famous, Kaye is virtually unknown. 
 
9. (C) One thing that Tizard and Kaye do have in common is 
confidence.  While acknowledging that unseating a Labour 
veteran from a traditionally safe Labour seat will be a 
challenge, during a lunch with the CG Kaye came across as 
energetic and sure of herself.  She described Auckland 
Central as "definitely winnable" for National and spoke like 
a ward leader who had done her homework.  She not only knew 
how many votes had separated Tizard and her National opponent 
in the last election, but she outlined for the CG where in 
the electorate, neighborhood by neighborhood, she would find 
those votes.  She explained how changes to the electorate's 
boundaries since the last election had excluded some Labour 
supporters and drawn in other voters more likely to support 
National.  Not counting on a large swing to National that 
would sweep her into parliament, she had a tactical plan to 
take the seat one vote at a time.  "I'll knock on doors," 
Kaye said, "Judith won't do that." 
 
10.  (SBU) Some outside observers are concluding that Kaye's 
confidence is justified.  The transTasman, a well-regarded 
political newsletter, cited Tizard's high negatives and 
changing demographics in predicting a National win.  In the 
newsletter's annual assessment of MPs, Tizard scored a 1 (out 
of 10), down from a 2 the previous year, putting her in the 
same category as other MPs clearly headed for the door. 
While they can be complimentary about some government 
ministers, National Party sources are derisive of Tizard's 
capabilities.  In late August, transTasman and other media 
outlets cited an unpublished poll that placed Kaye a couple 
of points ahead of Tizard. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Comment:  A Long Shot, but Still a Shot 
--------------------------------------- 
 
11.  (C) Despite some positive signs for Kaye, she faces an 
uphill struggle.  Auckland Central has been in Labour hands 
since 1919 (except for one term when it was held by a party 
to Labour's left).  While boundary changes may have pushed 
some more conservative voters into the electorate, they won't 
be enough to close the gap.  The young people in the 
electorate are not natural National supporters, and those 
dissatisfied with Labour may give their support to the Green 
Party, which has done well in Auckland Central in the past 
two elections. 
 
12.  (C) Kaye needs to target the electorate's higher income 
residents, many of whom are socially liberal Labour 
supporters.  They may not be comfortable turning to the Green 
Party as a Labour alternative, but need to be reassured that 
National is not too far to the right.  National under John 
Key has taken steps to comfort exactly those sort of voters 
but it's not clear if he has done enough.  Still, that 
serious observers believe an unknown has a good chance to 
take a safe Labour seat away from a member of the Tizard clan 
illustrates just how vulnerable Labour is. 
 
McCORMICK