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PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHWR #1147/01 2741451
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301451Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
TO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7093

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 001147 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR/CE FOR MORRIS, PIERANGELO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV BO PL
SUBJECT: POLISH MFA: CONTINUE DIALOGUE WITH BELARUS AFTER 
DISAPPOINTING ELECTIONS 
 
REF: WARSAW 01074 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  A Polish MFA official told us that the 
GoP agrees with the U.S. and OSCE assessment that the 
September 28 parliamentary elections in Belarus were neither 
free nor fair.  The MFA saw some "minor improvements" in the 
election process and will seek to continue a dialogue with 
Belarus on issues such as freedom of the media and the fate 
of the Polish Union in Belarus. The official conceded, 
however, that now is not the time to relax EU sanctions or to 
lift the EU visa ban on designated Belarusian officials.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Polish MFA Deputy Director for Eastern Policy (and 
former Polish Ambassador to Belarus) Mateusz Maszkiewicz told 
us on September 30 that Poland's position on the Belarusian 
parliamentary election conformed with that of the United 
States and the OSCE.  Despite some minor improvements, the 
elections were "not free, not fair, and not democratic." 
Maszkiewicz lamented that Lukashenka had failed to capitalize 
on a golden opportunity to improve his image in the West. 
 
Theories of Panic Ballot Stuffing and Russian Intrigues 
 
¶3. (SBU) Maszkiewicz said the Polish Embassy in Minsk had 
heard from unspecified Belarusian authorities that local 
election officials realized on the afternoon of September 28 
that they were not going to have enough votes to reach the 50 
percent threshhold level required to validate the election 
results.  In a panic, they allegedly proceeded to increase 
the number of ballots in favor of Lukashenka's candidates. 
Maszkiewicz said the Embassy had also heard rumors from other 
sources in Belarus that Russian intelligence organizations 
rigged the results of the election in order to isolate 
Lukashenka from the West. 
 
Lukashenka Running Out of Options 
 
¶4. (SBU) Maszkiewicz told us that Lukashenka will probably 
continue to look to the West as a means to counterbalance 
Moscow in an attempt to maintain at least some independence. 
Lukashenka's options, according to Maszkiewicz, are quickly 
narrowing.  Lukashenka has failed in his efforts to interest 
China and Iran in investing in or deepening economic 
relations with Belarus.  A once promising relationship with 
Venezuela is also on the decline because Chavez has shifted 
his focus to Moscow. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Maszkiewicz speculated that Russia will probably 
gain some concessions from Minsk when Prime Minister Putin 
visits Belarus in early October.  According to Maszkiewicz, 
Belarus and Russia will probably agree to a joint air space 
command, despite the fact that Lukashenka sees it as a threat 
to his authority.  Regarding Georgia, Maszkiewicz indicated 
that Lukashenka has little room to maneuver on the 
recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and will probably 
cave in to Moscow's demands. 
 
Poland's Stance After Belarusian Elections: Continue the 
Dialogue 
 
¶6. (SBU) Maszkiewicz indicated that Poland will continue its 
dialogue with Belarus -- including mid-level government 
officials, members of the opposition, and civil society 
groups -- although it will be difficult to provide the GoB 
meaningful incentives for change in light of the election 
results. He added that it is important to build strong 
democratic institutions in Belarus that will outlast the 
current presidency.  As a result, Poland is seeking 
instruments to push ahead with such an agenda. 
 
¶7. (SBU) In the near term, Poland will focus on resolving the 
status of the Polish Union in Belarus and easing Belarusian 
restrictions on the media.  Maszkiewicz emphatically denied 
recent press reports that the MFA is seeking to remove 
Andrzelika Borys -- with whom Maszkiewicz has a personal 
relationship -- from the leadership of the Polish Union in 
Belarus.  Maszkiewicz said that he would not allow such a 
plan to go forward.  Instead, the MFA is seeking to get the 
Union's two splinter groups -- one of which is backed by the 
Belarusian government -- to find ways to work together. 
Maszkiewicz complained that Prime Minister Donald Tusk was 
too quick to meet with Borys after the media claimed the MFA 
was seeking to oust her, making it appear that the government 
indeed had doubted her. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Maszkiewicz said Poland plans to "start a dialogue" 
with Lukashenka to convince him to ease restrictions on the 
activities of the media.  Maszkiewicz said that it would be a 
 
WARSAW 00001147  002 OF 002 
 
 
good sign if Lukashenka were to cancel the recently enacted 
media law as a concession to the West.  If unsuccessful, 
Masziewicz said, Poland will continue plans to "cover Belarus 
with satellite and radio programming." 
 
¶9. (SBU) COMMENT: Maszkiewicz's remarks generally echoed the 
sentiments of the Polish press, think tanks, and other 
government officials that the results of the election were 
generally disappointing, but not surprising.  As a result of 
the election, the Polish MFA appears to have abandoned its 
hope of softening the EU visa ban, at least in the short 
term.  However, MFA officials and the press pointed out that 
a few minor improvements had been made in the Belarusian 
elections--particularly in restraining police persecution of 
political opponents--which they see as a sign that Lukashenka 
might be willing to bend on some issues. 
 
 
ASHE