VZCZCXRO1544
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVL #0760/01 2561211
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121211Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2813
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000760 
 
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - September 12, 2008 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- Opposition Youth Expelled From University (para. 2) 
- Central Election Commission Challenges Eight Registration Denials 
(para. 3) 
- Supreme Court Overturns Two Registration Denial Appeals (para. 4) 
- Opposition Continually Face Arbitrary Detentions (para. 5) 
- Opposition Parliamentary Hopeful Fined (para. 6) 
- Opposition Leaders Detained and Searched (para. 7) 
- Opposition Youth Sentenced To Jail (para. 8) 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
- Consumer Inflation Increases in August (para. 9) 
- BelaQ' GDP Up 10.6 Percent (para. 10) 
- Belarus Has Record High Grain Harvest (para.11) 
 
Foreign Trade 
------------- 
 
- Belarus-China Trade Continues To Rise (para. 12) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 13) 
----------------- 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶2. Opposition Youth Expelled From University 
 
Malady Front activist Rostislav Pankratov was expelled from Mogilev 
University on September 10.  Pankratov linked the expulsion to his 
political activities and dismissed allegations that he failed to 
pass his exams.  In a separate case, the same university 
administration expelled history department student and Belarusian 
Christian Democracy party member Tatyana Shambolova on September 5 
for political reasons and because she is a candidate for parliament. 
 Both students maintained they would continue to pursue education in 
Belarus. 
 
¶3. Central Election Commission Challenges Eight Registration 
Denials 
 
On September 5, the Central Election Commission (CEC) announced that 
it had challenged eight out of 51 parliamentary hopefuls' 
registration denials.  Twenty-three opposition candidates filed 
appeals, and the CEC turned down four registration denials of 
opposition candidates.  CEC Chairwoman Lidiya Yermoshina stated that 
the CEC would have liked to challenge more denials from "a moral 
point of view," however, she said that because such cases are based 
on legal grounds, they could not be reconsidered. 
 
¶4. Supreme Court Overturns Two Registration Denial Appeals 
 
On September 11, the Supreme Court concluded hearings on 19 appeals 
filed by unregistered parliamentary hopefuls.  It overturned only 
two denial decisions on September 9.  The most prominent opposition 
members running for parliament were denied registration. 
 
¶5. Opposition Continually Faces Arbitrary Detentions 
 
Police briefly detained United Civic Party activists Natalya 
Schukina and Aleksandr Protsko in Gomel on September 6.  The 
activists were distributing leaflets calling for a boycott of the 
parliamentary elections and were released without charge.  In a 
separate incident in Gomel, parliamentary hopeful Konstantin 
Zhukovskiy and his proxies Sergey Trifonov and Ales Sivakov were 
apprehended for two hours September 9 after Zhukovskiy recorded his 
electoral program speech for local TV and radio channels.  The TV 
channel's administration accused the proxies of "illegally" 
videotaping Zhukovskiy's speech and alleged that they believed the 
proxies were carrying a bomb. 
 
¶6. Opposition Parliamentary Hopeful Fined 
 
On September 10, a Borisov city court fined Belarusian Popular Front 
member and unregistered parliamentary hopeful Sergey Salash USD 415. 
 Salash was charged with slandering a local electoral commission 
secretary and the Deputy Chairman of the District Executive 
Committee.  The activist said he was not "surprised" by the fine and 
would appeal it to a higher court. 
 
¶7. Opposition Leaders Detained and Searched 
 
VILNIUS 00000760  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
Border guards at the Belarus-Lithuania border detained for several 
hours and thoroughly searched For Freedom Movement leader Aleksandr 
Milinkevich and Belarusian Christian Democracy party Co-chairman 
Pavel Severinets on September 5.  Milinkevich and Severinets were 
returning to Belarus from a conference on the upcoming parliamentary 
elections held in Vilnius.  Law enforcers confiscated printed 
materials and copies of an opposition documentary from them. 
 
¶8. Opposition Youth Sentenced to Jail 
 
On September 5, a Minsk district court sentenced Malady Front 
activist Vadim Khonyavko to 15 days in jail for allegedly drinking 
in public.  Police apprehended Khonyavko the same day and charged 
him with petty hooliganism.  Khonyavko has been active in the MF 
campaign to boycott the upcoming elections. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶9. Consumer Inflation Increases in August 
 
Economic news portals reported September 11 that Belarus' consumer 
price inflation increased by 0.17 percent on the month in August. 
January-August 2008 saw an 8.28 percent inflation rate as compared 
with 4.4 percent in January-August 2007.  Overall, consumer prices 
have increased by 16.2 percent in the last 12 months. 
 
¶10. Belarus' GDP Up 10.6 Percent 
 
On September 11, the Statistics Agency reported that Belarus' GDP 
grew 10.6 percent on the year in January-August, reaching USD 37.16 
bln.  Industrial output increased by 13.1 percent and farm output by 
7.4 percent.  The GDP growth rate is expected to reach approximately 
11-12 percent in 2008. 
 
¶11. Belarus Has Record High Grain Harvest 
 
The Ministry of Agriculture reported a record high harvest of 9.297 
mln tons of grain as of September 8.  Private households farmed 0.2 
percent less grain on the year in 2008, and state farms increased 
their harvests by 27.3 percent.  Sugar beet crops went down 30.1 
percent; potato production also fell by 40.3 percent. 
 
------------- 
Foreign Trade 
------------- 
 
¶12. Belarus-China Trade Continues To Rise 
 
Business media sources announced September 11 that trade between 
Belarus and China rose by 26.9 percent on the year to USD 581.3 mln 
in January-May 2008.  Exports fell 47.2 percent to USD 102.3 mln, 
and imports from China hiked 81.2 percent to USD 479 mln.  PM Sergey 
Sidorskiy stated at a meeting with the outgoing Chinese Ambassador 
to Belarus on September 11 that trade could potentially reach USD 
1.5 bln in 2008.  The Ambassador noted that China endorses Belarus' 
domestic reforms and "foreign political initiatives." 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶13. Speaking at a press conference with a group of visiting Russian 
journalists on September 8, President Lukashenko pondered his style 
of governance, saying: 
 
"One has to accurately calculate before making a decision.  And 
then, of course, comes rigid control - that is the nature of that 
authoritarianism as I see it.  Who the hell knows what 
authoritarianism is?" 
 
 
SAVAGE 
CLOUD