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DE RUEHVI #1455/01 2731434
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 291434Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY VIENNA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1018
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 001455 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AU
SUBJECT: AUSTRIAN ELECTION: FAR RIGHT SEES STRONG GAINS; SPO PLACES 
FIRST 
 
REF: VIENNA 1418 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Austria's ruling coalition parties -- the Social 
Democrats (SPO) and the conservative People's Party (OVP) - suffered 
historic losses while still finishing first and second in the 
September 28 parliamentary election.  The big winners were the far 
right, the populist Freedom Party (FPO) and the Alliance for the 
Future of Austria (BZO), which exceeded expectations and combined 
for nearly 30 percent of the total vote.  The strong showing by the 
far right reflects public frustration with the fecklessness of the 
current government, as well as concerns about globalization, 
immigration, and the EU.  SPO Chairman Werner Faymann now faces the 
difficult task of forming a government.  Faymann has ruled out a 
coalition with the FPO or BZO; the OVP has done likewise, though 
somewhat less categorically.  Faymann on election night repeated his 
preference for forming another SPO-OVP "grand coalition."  Other 
possible options include a right-of-center OVP-FPO-BZO government or 
an SPO-led minority government, although a minority government would 
probably be short lived.  The OVP is engaged in a leadership debate 
which may lead to the resignation of party Chairman Wilhelm 
Molterer. End Summary. 
 
Results 
------- 
 
¶2. (U) Below are the results, excluding roughly 500,000 
absentee/postal ballots still to be counted, with the 2006 figures 
in brackets and a breakdown of the number of seats to be awarded 
each party in the 183-member legislature: 
 
SPO:   29.7% - 58 seats (35.3% - 68 seats) 
OVP:   25.6% - 50 seats (34.3% - 66 seats) 
FPO:   18.0% - 35 seats (11.0% - 21 seats) 
BZO:   11.0% - 21 seats (4.1%  -  7 seats) 
Greens: 9.8% - 19 seats (11.0% - 21 seats) 
 
Because absentee ballots will not be completely counted and the 
final tally known until October 6, slight changes to seat 
distribution is possible. 
 
Coalition Talks 
--------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Following Austrian political practice, President Fischer 
will give the mandate to form a government to Famann as leader of 
the strongest party.  This willinitiate coalition negotiations that 
could potenially last for months.  On election night, Faymann 
reiterated that he will not form a government wih the FPO and/or 
BZO, which he criticized for thir "polarizing" influence.  OVP 
leader Molterer hs also excluded a coalition with the FPO and BZOas long as they maintain their anti-EU ourse.  Faymann said he 
preferred to form another coalition with the OVP, while emphasizing 
that he expects the OVP to select new leadership.  The OVP Executive 
Board was scheduled to meet September 29 to discuss the election 
result; the board's deliberations could well lead to the replacement 
of Molterer as party chairman.  Environment and Agriculture Minister 
Josef Proell, who is most often mentioned as the likely successor to 
Molterer, is known to prefer a grand coalition.  SPO contacts tell 
us they believe they can work more productively with Proell than 
with Molterer. 
 
¶4. (U) At the same time, pledges notwithstanding, each of the 
coalition parties could form a majority government by teaming up 
with the FPO and BZO.  This would be particularly risky for the SPO, 
many of whose members would likely reject such an alliance; a 
right-of-center OVP-FPO-BZO coalition is considered more likely. 
There is also the possibility that the SPO could form a minority 
government, possibly including the Greens.  But such a government 
would be weak and probably short lived.  Moreover, on election night 
FPO leader Heinz-Christian Strache asserted that he would not offer 
legislative support to an SPO-led minority government. 
 
Historic Setback for SPO-OVP 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The election results were devastating for both the SPO and 
OVP, which have dominated Austrian politics since the end of the 
Second World War.  Each of the parties garnered the lowest portion 
of the vote in its history.  The two far right parties, meanwhile, 
combined for a higher vote total than the 26.9 percent won by the 
FPO in 1999.  Significantly, exit polls indicate that among the 
primary motivations for voters choosing the FPO and BZO was 
dissatisfaction with the current grand coalition, which was 
frequently paralyzed by intra-party bickering during its 18-month 
tenure.  The personal, charismatic appeal of BZO leader Joerg Haider 
and "bringing a new wind" to Austrian politics were other key 
reasons cited by voters leaving the polls.  Political scientist 
Peter Filzmaier, in his analysis for ORF TV, maintained that the 
 
VIENNA 00001455  002 OF 002 
 
 
surge in FPO-BZO support reflected anger at the grand coalition 
parties, rather than a strong rightward shift in the Austrian 
public.  (Note: Austria also lacks a left-wing protest party, 
excepting the thoroughly discredited communists.) 
 
Comment: OVP May Hold Key 
------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Despite suffering the greatest decline in support among the 
parties since the last election, the OVP appears likely to play a 
determining role in the formation of the new government.  If the OVP 
replaces Molterer and opts for a return to the grand coalition, the 
SPO will likely accept.  If not, the OVP could form a government 
with the far right, as it did after the 1999 elections.  Another 
option would be to go into opposition, as some party members 
advocated in election-night interviews.  Assuming that the SPO would 
be unable or unwilling to link up with at least one of the far right 
parties, such a move would leave Faymann with no alternative to a 
feeble minority government. 
 
¶7. (SBU) In our view, political scientist Filzmaier is right to say 
that voters chose the FPO and BZO primarily to express anger at the 
grand coalition.  But that doesn't tell the whole story.  Voters are 
not merely angry at the governing parties for failing to cooperate. 
Among the reasons cited for voting for the far right, many also 
claimed that the FPO/BZO "represents my interests."  Many voters 
were angry at the grand coalition for failing to address their 
concerns about issues like rising food prices, globalization, the 
EU, and Muslim immigration.  There is no doubt that these play a 
role in Austria, as elsewhere in Europe, in moving voters to the 
right.  The grand coalition parties have rightfully accused the far 
right of exploiting, and exacerbating, these anxieties, but they 
have failed to effectively deal with the root causes. 
 
¶8. (U) As the dust settles from yesterday's vote and coalition 
negotiations begin to take shape, Embassy will report further on the 
likely impact of the election on Austrian foreign policy and the 
implications for U.S. interests.