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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 002531 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 09//08 
 
INDEX: 
 
(9) Poll: Aso certain to become new LDP president, garnering over 
300 votes (Yomiuri) 
 
(10) LDP presidential election: Trend supporting Aso accelerating; 
Prospects for securing majority of lawmaker votes now in sight 
(Nikkei) 
 
(11) Calls growing in LDP for dissolution of Lower House at outset 
of extraordinary Diet session (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(12) New prime minister may be chosen on Sept. 24 (Mainichi) 
 
(13) DPJ determines official candidates totaling 187 (Mainichi) 
 
(14) Sankei-FNN poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, 
post-Fukuda premiership (Sankei) 
 
(15) Overseas mergers and acquisitions by Japanese firms jump 2.8 
fold over year ago in Jan-Aug period (Nikkei) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(9) Poll: Aso certain to become new LDP president, garnering over 
300 votes 
 
YOMIURI (Top play) (Excerpts) 
September 15, 2008 
 
Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Taro Aso is almost 
certain to win the LDP presidential election on Sept. 22, a Yomiuri 
Shimbun survey revealed on Sept. 14. The survey also showed that 
slightly less than 60 PERCENT  of LDP members would vote for Aso. 
Out of the 141 votes given to the 47 prefectural chapters, about 100 
votes are likely to go to Aso. As of the night of Sept. 14, 211 LDP 
Diet members, out of a total of 386, had decided to vote for Aso. As 
a result, Aso is likely to garner more than 300 votes, far exceeding 
an outright majority of the 527 votes, in the first voting. 
 
The new LDP president will be elected after 386 Diet members and 
representatives from 47 local chapters, three from each, cast their 
ballots at a general meeting on Sept. 22 of LDP Diet members from 
both chambers. 
 
The voter survey on LDP members was conducted on Sept. 12-14 by 
phone in all 47 prefectures. Of 1,545 people confirmed to be 
rank-and-file LDP members, answers were obtained from 1,069. Of 
them, 661 were men and 408 were women. 
 
Asked whom they would vote for in the presidential election, 57 
PERCENT  said they would vote for Aso, while 10 PERCENT  said they 
would vote for former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike. Former Policy 
Research Council Chairman Nobuteru Ishihara and Economic and Fiscal 
Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano tied for third with 7 PERCENT  each. 
Only 4 PERCENT  said they would vote for former Defense Minister 
Shigeru Ishiba. 
 
(10) LDP presidential election: Trend supporting Aso accelerating; 
Prospects for securing majority of lawmaker votes now in sight 
 
NIKKEI (Page 1) (Full) 
 
TOKYO 00002531  002 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 09//08 
 
September 16, 2008 
 
The trend supporting Secretary General Taro Aso in the upcoming 
Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) presidential election to choose a 
successor to Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda is accelerating in the 
run-up to the voting on September 22. He has obtained a prospect for 
securing a majority out of 386 votes from lawmakers belonging to the 
LDP. Former Secretary General Nobuteru Ishihara, former Defense 
Minister Yuriko Koike, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and 
State Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy Kaoru Yosano are 
trying to garner votes from undecided lawmakers. They are also 
trying recover from their setback by securing more votes from local 
chapters.  Aso, who holds a commanding lead in the campaign, aims 
for victory in the first ballot involving 527 votes, combined with 
the regional ones. 
 
With the growing view in the LDP that the Lower House will likely be 
dissolved in October, support for Aso is spreading widely because 
hopes are high that he will be the key person in the general 
election. According to a Nikkei poll carried out at the end of the 
early stage of the campaign, Aso has secured support not only from 
his own faction and the Ibuki and Nikai factions but also from an 
increasing number of other factions and unaffiliated lawmakers. He 
is taking the lead, having obtained support from about 60 PERCENT 
of members of the Machimura faction, to which Koike belongs, about 
50 PERCENT  of members of the Yamasaki faction, to which Ishihara 
belongs, and about 30 PERCENT  of support from the Tsushima faction, 
to which Ishiba belongs. 
 
The contest for second place is in a chaotic state. Yosano has 
secured a certain level of support from lawmakers, winning the 
support of the Upper House members of the Tsushima faction. Koike 
and Ishihara aim at achieving a rollback in local regions, making 
the best use of their high name recognition. 
 
In the event that Aso can maintain the momentum of support from 
lawmakers, Yosano and other candidates would find it difficult to 
overtake first place, even if they obtain most of the votes from 
local chapters. However, since there are many lawmakers who have not 
yet made up their mind, there is a possibility of the situation 
changing. 
 
Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi on the 12th declared his 
support for Koike. It is difficult to determine what impact this new 
development will have. In the Koike camp, Koizumi's protgs elected 
to the Diet in the so-called postal election in 2005 aim to secure 
additional votes. Some local chapters view that since Koizumi is 
still popular among the public, his support would have a strong 
impact on party members' voting behavior, as one senior official of 
a certain prefectural chapter in the Koshinetsu district said 
 
In the meantime, regional areas are pinning hopes on economic 
pump-priming measures, based on the positive use of fiscal policy 
advocated by Aso. In a survey the Nihon Keizai Shimbun carried out 
last week targeting senior officials of the party's regional 
organizations, a majority replied that they support Aso (including 
individual opinions). Some said that few in the local areas have a 
high evaluation for Koizumi since they have suffered from the 
Koizumi reform policy, according to a senior official of a certain 
local chapter in East Japan. 
 
(11) Calls growing in LDP for dissolution of Lower House at outset 
 
TOKYO 00002531  003 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 09//08 
 
of extraordinary Diet session 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 1) (Full) 
September 14, 2008 
 
An increasing number of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) members have 
begun to call on the government to dissolve the House of 
Representatives just after the new prime minister delivers a policy 
speech on Sept. 29. Now that Secretary General Taro Aso is almost 
certain to win an overwhelming victory in the LDP presidential 
election on Sept. 22, their calls stem from the prediction that the 
effect of the election buoying up the party might not last long. 
 
The ruling coalition plans to officially designate the new LDP 
president who is elected in the presidential race on Sept. 22nd as 
the new prime minister on the 24th and set the new prime minister's 
policy speech for the 29th. A senior member of the Machimura faction 
said: "It is conceivable that the Lower House will be dissolved on 
Sept. 29 at the earliest. (In the event that the representative 
interpellation session is held for three days starting on Oct. 1,) 
Oct. 3 will also be an option." In the case in which the Lower House 
is dissolved by Oct. 3, the election on Oct. 26 will become a likely 
option. 
 
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has been calling on 
the LDP to delay dissolving the Lower House in exchange for its 
cooperation in getting a supplementary budget bill for fiscal 2008 
through the Diet, according to informed sources yesterday. 
 
The Government and the ruling coalition will score points if the 
extra budget, which earmarks expenses for comprehensive economic 
stimulus measures, clears the Diet. The DPJ, however, wishes to 
avoid an early election when support for the LDP is high by working 
to delay Lower House dissolution. It wishes to have the time to 
attack the new prime minister on such issues as sales of 
insecticide-contaminated rice and pension records falsified by the 
Social Insurance Agency. 
 
In a joint press conference by the five candidates for the LDP 
presidential election, Aso said: "I will do my utmost to get the 
supplementary budget through the Diet at an early date." 
 
Even in such a case, LDP members predict "only a single day as the 
number of days for deliberations each at the Lower House and the 
House of Councillors," as said by a senior party member. It is 
inconceivable that the DPJ will cooperate in enacting the budget 
bill only with brief deliberations, so the possibility is quite slim 
that both sides will be able to agree to dissolve the Lower House by 
talks. 
 
(12) New prime minister may be chosen on Sept. 24 
 
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Abridged slightly) 
September 13, 2008 
 
The Diet affairs chiefs of the ruling and opposition parties met 
yesterday in the Diet building to discuss a timetable for the next 
extraordinary Diet session. In the session, the ruling bloc 
proposed: (1) convening the extra Diet session on Sept. 24 and 
carrying out prime ministerial elections in the two Diet chambers on 
the same day; (2) the new prime minister's policy speech and the 
presentation of the fiscal 2008 supplementary budget to the Diet on 
 
TOKYO 00002531  004 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 09//08 
 
Sept. 29; and (3) setting the period of the extra Diet at 68 days to 
run through Nov. 30. The opposition camp did not raise any 
objections. 
 
The ruling bloc also presented plans for the new prime minister to 
attend the UN General Assembly on Sept. 25 and to submit to the next 
Diet session in late September or beyond a bill to extend the New 
Antiterrorism Special Measures Law and a bill to establish a 
Consumer Affairs Agency. Coordination is underway in the ruling camp 
to dissolve the Lower House in early October for a general election 
on Nov. 9. 
 
The Democratic Party of Japan in the meeting underlined the need to 
have sufficient time for Diet interpellations after the prime 
minister's policy and budget deliberations. 
 
(13) DPJ determines official candidates totaling 187 
 
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Excerpts) 
September 13, 2008 
 
The Democratic Party of Japan officially determined on Sept. 12 its 
first group of candidates totaling 187 -- 108 incumbents, 44 
new-face candidates, and 35 former lawmakers -- for 187 
constituencies. The party has informally decided to field candidates 
for 246 districts. The list does not include 59 incumbents who were 
elected under the proportional representation system after being 
defeated in single-seat constituencies in the previous Lower House 
election and former lawmakers. 
 
The first group was determined based on the election surveys that 
were conducted from late August. The Election Campaign Committee 
initially considered determining all official candidates, concluding 
that the next general election would be held earlier than expected 
due to Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's decision to step down. But the 
plan was altered because party head Ichiro Ozawa insisted on drawing 
a line based on the election surveys. 
 
The party, which eventually plans to field some 260 candidates in 
all, including the first 187, intends to determine its second group 
of candidates after conducting further surveys before the Lower 
House is dissolved. 
 
(14) Sankei-FNN poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, 
post-Fukuda premiership 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Full) 
September 13, 2008 
 
Questions & Answers 
 
(Note) Figures shown in percentage. Figures in parentheses denote 
findings from the last Sankei-FNN survey conducted Aug. 2-3. 
 
Q: Prime Minister Fukuda has announced his resignation. Do you 
support his cabinet? 
 
Yes 11.5 (29.3) 
No 77.9 (51.5) 
Don't know (D/K) + Can't say which (CSW) 10.6 (19.2) 
 
Q: Which political party do you support? 
 
TOKYO 00002531  005 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 09//08 
 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 29.1 (27.0) 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 23.8 (26.6) 
New Komeito (NK) 3.5 (4.0) 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 3.2 (3.1) 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1.7 (1.2) 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.2 (0.6) 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0.0 (0.0) 
Other answers (O/A) 1.2 (1.3) 
None 35.0 (34.3) 
D/K + Can't say (C/S) 2.3 (1.9) 
 
Q: Do you appreciate Prime Minister Fukuda and his cabinet on the 
following points? 
 
Performance since coming into office 
Yes 13.8 (14.1) 
No 74.1 (69.7) 
D/K+CSW 12.1 (16.2) 
 
 
Timing for his resignation 
Yes 14.2 
No 75.2 
D/K+CSW 10.6 
 
Reason for his resignation 
Yes 12.8 
No 73.2 
D/K+CSW 14.0 
 
Q: Do you look forward to the LDP presidential election? 
 
Yes 32.0 
No 62.9 
D/K+CSW 5.1 
 
Q: Do you hope DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa will become prime 
minister? 
 
Yes 30.5 
No 62.7 
D/K+CSW 6.8 
 
Q: Do you appreciate DPJ President Ozawa's campaign pledge in his 
party's recent presidential election? 
 
Yes 19.9 
No 28.5 
D/K+CSW 51.6 
 
Q: Do you think the following economic policy measures are 
important? 
 
Boost the economy for the time being even by issuing 
deficit-covering bonds 
Yes 37.4 
No 52.1 
D/K+CSW 10.5 
 
Restore fiscal health 
Yes 53.8 
 
TOKYO 00002531  006 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 09//08 
 
No 36.7 
D/K+CSW 9.5 
 
 
Continue Koizumi reforms for economic growth 
Yes 37.2 
No 48.4 
D/K+CSW 14.4 
 
Q: Which one do you think is appropriate for prime minister between 
each of the candidates in the LDP presidential election and DPJ 
President Ozawa? 
 
Ishihara and Ozawa 
Ishihara 31.0 
Ozawa 52.2 
D/K+CSW 16.8 
 
Koike and Ozawa 
Koike 29.8 
Ozawa 53.8 
D/K+CSW 16.4 
 
Aso and Ozawa 
Aso 55.3 
Ozawa 29.4 
D/K+CSW 15.3 
 
Ishiba and Ozawa 
Ishiba 25.6 
Ozawa 55.9 
D/K+CSW 18.5 
 
Yosano and Ozawa 
Yosano 32.2 
Ozawa 48.7 
D/K+CSW 19.1 
 
Q: What would you like the post-Fukuda cabinet to pursue on a 
priority basis? 
 
Fiscal policy to cut down on waste 30.4 
Social security, including healthcare and pension systems 29.1 
Economic measures, including price stabilization 18.5 
Administrative reform 8.6 
Global warming 4.4 
Tax reform, including the consumption tax 3.9 
North Korea issues 2.4 
Decentralization 1.6 
D/K + C/S 1.1 
 
Q: Are you disappointed at the recent political news? 
 
Prime Minister Fukuda's announcement of his resignation 
Yes 64.8 
No 30.9 
D/K+CSW 4.3 
 
Junior LDP lawmakers' giving up of their candidacies for the LDP 
presidential election 
Yes 35.8 
No 53.4 
 
TOKYO 00002531  007 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 09//08 
 
D/K+CSW 10.8 
 
Some people left the DPJ and formed the Reform Club (Kaikaku 
Kurabu) 
Yes 31.4 
No 51.4 
D/K+CSW 17.2 
 
Yumiko Himei, who clarified her intention to join the Reform Club, 
has taken back her word to leave the DPJ 
Yes 54.0 
No 30.4 
D/K+CSW 15.6 
 
The DPJ presidential election was without voting 
Yes 49.1 
No 39.1 
D/K+CSW 11.8 
 
Q: When do you think it is appropriate to hold the next election for 
the House of Representatives? 
Shortly after the post-Fukuda cabinet comes into office 34.9 
Within the year 31.9 
During the first half of next year 15.2 
During the latter half of next year 11.0 
D/K+C/S 7.0 
 
Q: Which political party's candidate would you like to vote for in 
your electoral district at the time of the next election for the 
House of Representatives? 
 
LDP 34.4 
DPJ 35.2 
NK 3.8 
JCP 3.7 
SDP 2.1 
PNP 0.4 
NPN 0.1 
Other political parties 1.3 
Independent 7.4 
D/K+C/S 11.6 
 
Q: Which political party would you like to vote for in your 
proportional representation bloc at the time of the next election 
for the House of Representatives? 
 
LDP 34.3 
DPJ 34.6 
NK 5.1 
JCP 4.8 
SDP 2.4 
PNP 0.6 
NPN 0.6 
Other political parties 6.6 
D/K+C/S 11.0 
 
Q: Do you think you are a floating voter unaffiliated with any 
political party? 
 
Yes 56.5 
No 38.0 
D/K+CSW 5.5 
 
TOKYO 00002531  008 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 09//08 
 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted Sept. 10-11 by the 
Sankei Shimbun and Fuji News Network (FNN) over the telephone on a 
computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. For the survey, a 
total of 1,000 persons were sampled from among men and women, aged 
20 and over, across the nation. 
 
(15) Overseas mergers and acquisitions by Japanese firms jump 2.8 
fold over year ago in Jan-Aug period 
 
NIKKEI (Top Play) (Full) 
September 13, 2008 
 
Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) overseas by Japanese firms are 
sharply increasing, with transactions totaling 4.56 trillion yen in 
the January-August period this year. This is a 2.8 fold increase 
over the same period a year ago and the second-highest level ever on 
an annualized basis. Now that the domestic market has already 
attained maturity owing to Japan's aging society and declining 
birthrate, Japanese companies, on the strength of their ample 
supplies of capital, are looking for growth opportunities overseas. 
In contrast, M&As by U.S. and European firms overseas have 
significantly decreased. 
 
The share of Japanese manufacturers' sales overseas has been 
increasing annually, hitting a record 45 PERCENT  in the fiscal year 
that ended in March. The sharp rise in M&As overseas reflects 
business strategies by Japanese firms to operate abroad. In previous 
overseas M&A sprees around 1990 and around 2000, Japanese firms 
poured money into bubbles in such specific areas as real estate and 
information technology. The recent investment boom, however, is 
aimed at obtaining market shares and technologies overseas -- 
different in nature from the past strategies. 
 
In the pharmaceutical industry, in which large-scale M&As have been 
concluded, leading domestic firms have been shifting their main 
focus away from the domestic market, which is sluggish due to 
reduced medical spending, to growing overseas markets. Takeda 
Pharmaceutical Co. bought the U.S. firm Millennium Pharmaceuticals 
Inc. for about 900 billion yen, the largest-scale M&A case this 
year. Daiichi Sankyo Co. has decided to purchase the largest 
pharmaceutical company in India, paying up to 500 billion yen. 
 
Financial institutions are also eagerly opting for M&As. Tokio 
Marine Holdings Inc. has decided to invest approximately 500 billion 
yen in purchasing a medium-ranking U.S. insurer. According to M&A 
consultant firm Recof Corp., the value of Japanese firms' M&A 
transactions with foreign firms between January and August is the 
second-highest level ever, following the 8.6 trillion yen recorded 
in all of 2006. 
 
The current spree of M&As has been supported by cash reserves at 
listed domestic firms that exceeded 60 trillion yen as of the end of 
March 2008. According to Thomson Reuters, a leading U.S. financial 
information company, U.S. firms' M&As overseas in the January-August 
period decreased by half, compared with the previous year, to 117.5 
billion dollars, or approximately 12.6 trillion yen. European 
companies' M&As plunged 32 PERCENT . 
 
In the U.S. and Europe, financial institutions are reluctant to 
offer funds for M&As due to the subprime mortgage crisis. "With few 
debts, Japanese firms' fiscal strength has relatively improved 
 
TOKYO 00002531  009 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 09//08 
 
internationally, and they now find it easier to buy foreign firms 
due to a global stock price decline," says Yutaka Harada, chief 
economist at Daiwa Research Institute. Japanese firms will be tested 
over how skillfully they will be able to manage the foreign 
companies they placed under their wings. 
 
ZUMWALT