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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1633

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 TOKYO 002523 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 09/16/08-1 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Mainichi analysis: Aso likely to achieve overwhelming victory, 
securing majority of lawmaker votes and 70 PERCENT  of local chapter 
vote (Mainichi) 
 
(2) Koizumi declares support for Koike: Is he eyeing political 
realignment, which could involve DPJ? (Mainichi) 
 
(3) Considering giving key posts to Yosano and others: Aso hints at 
early dissolution of Lower House (Asahi) 
 
(4) Negotiations on nuclear verification suspended, with no response 
from North Korea to U.S. new proposals (Yomiuri) 
 
(5) Unknown sub intrudes into territorial waters (Yomiuri)  Error! 
Bookmark not defined. 
 
(6) Foreign Ministry tolerates leaks of water containing radiation 
from nuclear vessels without disclosing U.S. explanation made 45 
years ago (Mainichi) 
 
(7) Farm Minister Ota says ministry not making big fuss over 
tainted-rice issue, causing another stir (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(8) Poll: Public also divided-Aso wanted for premiership, DPJ 
preferred for voting in snap election (Sankei) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Mainichi analysis: Aso likely to achieve overwhelming victory, 
securing majority of lawmaker votes and 70 PERCENT  of local chapter 
vote 
 
MAINICHI (Top play) (Full) 
September 14, 2008 
 
The Mainichi Shimbun analyzed Sept. 13 information gathered about 
the LDP presidential election on Sept. 22, in which both the LDP 
Diet members and local chapter representatives would cast votes. The 
situation showed that Secretary General Taro Aso is likely to garner 
about 200 votes out of the 386 LDP Diet members who are to cast one 
ballot each and about 100 votes out of the 141 local chapter votes. 
As a result, chances are high that Aso will win the presidency 
without a runoff vote, collecting more than 300 votes, well over a 
majority of the total of 527 votes. Nevertheless, the situation 
remains still fluid as some 20 PERCENT  of the LDP lawmakers have 
yet to make up their minds and there is a move to turn the tables, 
including local votes. 
 
Besides Aso, the race is being fought among former Policy Research 
Council Chairman Nobuteru Ishihara, 51, former Defense Minister 
Yuriko Koike, 56, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, 51, and 
Economy and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano 70. Besides Aso, 
Yosano is a step ahead of the other three. 
 
By faction, Aso has secured the support of all 28 members of the 
Ibuki faction, which has decided to back him as faction, and 
generally all 16 Nikai and 15 Koumura faction members, in addition 
to the 20 Aso faction members. Support for Aso is also spreading in 
the Tsushima faction (69 members), Koga faction (61), and Yamasaki 
faction (41). The situation also shows that Aso is gripping the 
 
TOKYO 00002523  002 OF 007 
 
 
harts of a majority of the members of the Machimura faction, the 
largest in the party. 
 
Support for Yosano, a lawmaker with no factional allegiance, centers 
on the Tsushima and Koga factions, with 30 PERCENT  of them backing 
him. Meanwhile, support for Ishihara, Koike, and Ishiba comes from 
20-40 PERCENT  of the Yamasaki, Machimura, and Tsushima factions. 
 
The local votes will be determined through "primaries" by 47 
prefectural chapters and fraternity members. The Mainichi Shimbun 
has found that 16 prefectural chapters would employ the 
winner-takes-all method in which the top contestant takes all three 
votes and 31 prefectural chapters would take the D'Hondt system in 
which votes are allocated to each candidate according to the 
percentage of votes each wins. 
 
Aso has secured almost all winner-takes-all prefectural chapters 
except for Tottori, Ishiba's home turf. Aso is also likely to garner 
two to three votes in almost all D'Hondt prefectural chapters 
excluding several chapters where the situations are murky. 
 
(2) Koizumi declares support for Koike: Is he eyeing political 
realignment, which could involve DPJ? 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
September 13, 2008 
 
Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi on September 12 declared his 
support for former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike in the Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election. It is believed that 
his aim is to shake up the campaign, in which Secretary General Taro 
Aso holds a commanding lead, as well as to boost support for Koike 
with an eye on political realignment, which could occur around the 
next Lower House election. He also appears to want to prevent former 
Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa, who backs Koike, from becoming 
isolated in the party. 
 
Koizumi concerned about factions holding consultations 
 
Though Nakagawa and former Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe had 
repeatedly asked Koizumi to support Koike in the LDP presidential 
election campaign, Koizumi refrained from indicating a clear-cut 
stance. He, however, indicated his decision to back Koike, saying 
during a meeting with Takebe and others in Tokyo on the morning of 
the 12th, "The LDP, if it is headed by Koike, would be a good match 
for the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) led by Mr. 
Ozawa." He also pointed out, "The LDP is facing a serious crisis, 
but they do not have enough of a sense of crisis." He thus expressed 
strong concern about the ongoing presidential campaign, which is 
increasingly showing indications that factions are holding 
consultations. 
 
Nakagawa at a meeting of Koike's campaign headquarters excitedly 
said, "That's just what I'd expected from Mr. Koizumi. I have 
deepened my sense of reverence for him." Koike also told reporters, 
"I am encouraged by Mr. Koizumi's declaration." 
 
Former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, who backs Aso, previously told 
lawmakers who were concerned that Koizumi could back Koike, "Don't 
worry. Mr. Koizumi won't move." However, he on the 12th reportedly 
said with a disappointed look, "I don't know. If he wants to back 
her, he can do so." 
 
TOKYO 00002523  003 OF 007 
 
 
 
In September 2005, when he was prime minister, Koizumi proposed a 
grand coalition to then DPJ President Seiji Maehara. He thus has an 
understanding with junior DPJ reformist lawmakers. Koizumi's 
statement appears to indicate that he believes there could be 
political realignment, centered on the losers of the LDP 
presidential election and the DPJ. 
 
(3) Considering giving key posts to Yosano and others: Aso hints at 
early dissolution of Lower House 
 
ASAHI (Page 1) (Full) 
September 13, 2008 
 
Secretary General Taro Aso, who is taking the lead in the Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP) presidential campaign, on September 12 firmed 
up a policy of offering key cabinet and party posts other 
candidates, starting with State Minister for Economic and Fiscal 
Policy Kaoru Yosano, in the event of his assuming the premiership. 
He also indicated at an open debate held at the Japan National Press 
Club in Tokyo his intention to dissolve the Lower House at an early 
date while LDP approval ratings are still high after the 
presidential election. 
 
Referring to the formation of a cabinet after his nomination for 
prime minister, Aso said: "I will give priority to solidarity. 
However, I will basically appoint the right persons for the right 
jobs." He is expected to appoint his rival candidates who have 
fought well in the presidential election to key posts, such as 
ministers and the three top party officers. Concerning the timing of 
dissolving the Lower House for a snap election, one reporter asked 
him whether he would reach a judgment after seeing cabinet approval 
ratings. Aso replied, "That's only natural." 
 
The Koizumi administration in its last days adopted a policy of 
constraining growth in social security expenditures to 1.1 trillion 
yen over five years or 220 billion yen a year. Aso hinted at taking 
a second look at this policy, noting, "My candid feeling is that 
policy has just about reached its limit." He also hinted at looking 
into putting on hold the government's fiscal reconstruction goal of 
moving the primary balance into the black by fiscal 2011. He said: 
"It is correct to maintain that policy as a target. However, when 
that policy was adopted, the nominal growth rate was 2 PERCENT . 
However, it is now a negative 3 PERCENT . The present economic 
situation is very harsh." 
 
He ruled out the issuance of deficit-covering government bonds, 
saying: "People tend to say that more public spending is synonymous 
with issuing deficit-covering government bonds. However, fiscal 
disbursements do not immediately mean issuing such bonds." 
 
(4) Negotiations on nuclear verification suspended, with no response 
from North Korea to U.S. new proposals 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
September 14, 2008 
 
(Miyazaki, Washington) 
 
Negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea have been suspended as 
North Korea has made no response to a report with new proposals 
presented by the U.S. in late August on a nuclear verification 
 
TOKYO 00002523  004 OF 007 
 
 
regime, according to a senior U.S. government official on Sept. 12. 
 
No response may be attributed to Kim's illness 
 
The senior U.S. official said: "The possibility of Kim Jong Il's 
illness cannot be ruled out" as the main reason for North Korea's no 
response, indicating that North Korean officials might be unable to 
receive instructions on how to respond to the new U.S. proposals. 
Concern is growing of further stagnation in the six-party talks to 
denuclearize North Korea. 
 
According to the U.S. government official, U.S. State Department 
official Sung Kim, special envoy to the six-party talks, handed the 
new draft report over to a North Korean official during their 
meeting in New York on Aug. 22. Although the U.S. official did not 
reveal the contents of the report, a source close to the six-party 
talks, keeping in mind the North's official refusal to allow 
sampling of nuclear materials and inspections of all nuclear 
facilities in North Korea as proposed by the U.S. in its report in 
July, thinks the new report may contain partially corrected phrases 
on these measures. 
 
The fresh report must be more acceptable for North Korea than the 
July report, but North Korean authorities remain unresponsive. 
 
There are rumors that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il had a stroke 
in mid- or late August. The U.S. official indicated that Kim might 
be unable to give instructions on a response to the new proposal 
report. On North Korea's resumption of work to reassemble its 
Yongbyon reactor, the U.S. official thinks that Kim gave the 
instruction before he had a stroke. 
 
The senior U.S. government official said: "What we can do now is 
just wait for the other side's response," indicating that the U.S. 
would make no more concessions. 
 
(5) Unknown sub intrudes into territorial waters 
 
YOMIURI (Page 1) (Full) 
September 15, 2008 
 
A submarine of unknown nationality yesterday morning intruded into 
Japan's territorial waters near the Bungo Strait off Ashizurimisaki 
cape in Kochi Prefecture. The Maritime Self-Defense Force 
Aegis-equipped destroyer Atago, which was on a training mission, 
spotted the submarine at around 7 a.m. about seven kilometers inside 
Japan's territorial wasters (12 nautical miles or about 22 
kilometers). The Atago chased the submarine but lost track of the 
submarine about 1 hour and 40 minutes after its discovery of the 
submarine. The Defense Ministry and the Self-Defense Forces are 
continuing the search for the submarine and are also analyzing 
gathered information to determine the submarine's nationality, path, 
and intentions. 
 
According to the Defense Ministry, the captain and his officers 
onboard the Atago spotted what appeared to be a submarine periscope 
at 6:56 a.m. at sea about one kilometer ahead of the Atago. At 7 
a.m., the Atago used its active sonar to search for the submarine. 
After about 30 minutes, the Atago judged that it likely was a 
submarine. The submarine is believed to have left Japan's 
territorial waters after 7 a.m., heading southward. 
 
 
TOKYO 00002523  005 OF 007 
 
 
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 
requires foreign submarines to navigate on the surface and show 
their flags when passing through the territorial waters of other 
countries. The Defense Ministry has confirmed that the submarine was 
not a U.S. Navy vessel, and the ministry takes it as an intentional 
violation of Japanese waters. 
 
In November 2004, a Chinese naval submarine violated Japan's 
territorial waters and cruised underwater for about three hours. The 
government ordered the MSDF to carry out maritime security 
operations. In January 2005, the government decided to issue an 
order in principle for maritime security operations against 
submarines that violate Japanese waters. This time, however, the 
government did not issue that order. "The submarine was already out 
of Japan's territorial waters by the time we had confirmed it was a 
submarine," Defense Minister Hayashi told reporters yesterday 
evening. "I judged that the submarine was unlikely to return to 
Japan's territorial waters," he added. 
 
(6) Foreign Ministry tolerates leaks of water containing radiation 
from nuclear vessels without disclosing U.S. explanation made 45 
years ago 
 
MAINICHI (Page 26) (Full) 
September 13, 2008 
 
Prior to the planned deployment of the nuclear-powered USS George 
Washington at Yokosuka Port in Kanagawa Prefecture on Sept. 25, 
concern is growing that cooling water containing radiation might 
leak from the aircraft carrier. Behind this concern is the fact that 
the Foreign Ministry was found to have closed to the public the 
information given by the U.S. in negotiations 45 years ago that a 
U.S. nuclear-powered submarine could leak water containing a small 
amount of radiation. Experts insist that the ministry should 
properly explain this information to the public. 
 
This fact was found in the process of Shoji Niihara, a researcher on 
international issues, examining a declassified document obtained 
from the National Archives and Records Administration in the U.S. 
The document details the negotiations between Japan and the U.S. on 
the first port call in Japan of a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine in 
¶1964. According to the document, the U.S. Department of State 
instructed the U.S. Embassy in Japan in a cable dated March 19, 
1963, to tell Japan, which was calling on the U.S. to ban radiation 
leaks in Japanese territorial waters, that it was necessary to 
discharge (cooling) water containing a small amount of radiation 
when the reactors are warmed up. Japan accepted "exceptional 
radiation leaks" in the end. 
 
When a reactor is operated before a nuclear vessel leaves port, 
reactor primary coolant containing a small amount of radiation can 
be discharged outboard. The Foreign Ministry produced a brochure in 
November 2006 ahead of the deployment of the aircraft carrier George 
Washington. But the brochure stopped short of referring to 
exceptional radiation leaks, just noting: "U.S. nuclear-powered 
vessels are prohibited from leaking water containing radiation 
within 12 nautical miles of Japan." 
 
A member of the Status of U.S. Forces Agreement Division in the 
Foreign Ministry explained: "Basically, there are no exceptions. 
Since 1964, we have received no report of harm to human health." In 
reaction, Kunikazu Noguchi, a full-time lecturer (on Radiochemistry 
 
TOKYO 00002523  006 OF 007 
 
 
Science) at the faculty of dentistry of Nihon University, commented: 
"It should not be concluded that there is no problem based on the 
fact that no report has been made of harm to human health." 
 
(7) Farm Minister Ota says ministry not making big fuss over 
tainted-rice issue, causing another stir 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 3) (Abridged slightly) 
September 13, 2008 
 
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Minister Seiichi Ota, appearing 
on a satellite TV program on Sept. 12, made the following comment in 
connection with the fact that rice tainted with pesticide has 
illegally been distributed: "I can say with confidence that it will 
cause no harm to human health. So we are not making a big fuss over 
it." 
 
Rice distributed by Mikasa Foods Co., a wholesale rice processing 
firm in Osaka, has been used for human consumption at hospitals. 
Strong public concerns have also forced shochu distilled spirit and 
senbei rice cracker makers to voluntarily recall their products. 
Ota's "no big fuss" remark has drawn calls for his resignation from 
opposition parties. Consumer safety is likely to become a campaign 
issue in the next general election that may follow the upcoming LDP 
presidential election. 
 
After the program, Ota told reporters: "I am not slighting (the 
issue); I am saying that we will respond to the matter calmly." 
 
On Sept. 11, MAFF Vice Minister Toshiro Shirasu suggested that the 
rice-processing firm was to blame and not the ministry. Questions 
have been raised about the ministry's stance, including Ota's 
remarks. 
 
(8) Poll: Public also divided-Aso wanted for premiership, DPJ 
preferred for voting in snap election 
 
SANKEI (Top play) (Full) 
September 13, 2008 
 
In the wake of Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's announcement of his 
resignation and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's promulgation 
of a presidential election to pick his successor, the Sankei Shimbun 
and Fuji News Network conducted a joint public opinion survey on 
Sep. 10-11. In the survey, DLP Secretary General Taro Aso, 67, was 
most popular at 37.2 PERCENT  among all five candidates running in 
the LDP race. According to the Sankei Shimbun's findings, Aso has 
now secured 60 PERCENT  of all votes allocated to the LDP's 387 
lawmakers in both houses of the Diet. Meanwhile, it looks like his 
popularity with the public is also growing. 
 
Former LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Nobuteru Ishihara, 51, 
ranked second at 13.8 PERCENT , followed by former Defense Minister 
Yuriko Koike, 56, at 13.0 PERCENT , Economic and Fiscal Policy 
Minister Kaoru Yosano, 70, at 8.6 PERCENT , and former Defense 
Minister Shigeru Ishiba, 51, at 5.3 PERCENT . 
 
In the survey, respondents were also asked which one they thought 
would be appropriate for prime minister between each of the five 
candidates in the LDP presidential election and Ichiro Ozawa, 
president of the leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan 
(Minshuto), who has been reelected unopposed for a third term. In 
 
TOKYO 00002523  007 OF 007 
 
 
response to this question, Aso marked 55.3 PERCENT , with Ozawa at 
29.4 PERCENT . But Ozawa outpaced all of the other four LDP 
lawmakers. Respondents were further asked if they hope Ozawa will 
become prime minister. To this question, "yes" accounted for 30.5 
PERCENT , with "no" at 62.7 PERCENT . 
 
In the breakdown of public support for political parties, the LDP 
stood at 29.1 PERCENT , up 2.1 percentage points from the last 
survey taken Aug. 2-3. Meanwhile, the DPJ dropped 2.8 points to 23.8 
PERCENT . However, when asked which political party they would like 
to vote for in the next election for the House of Representatives. 
the DPJ marked 35.2 PERCENT  for electoral districts and 34.6 
PERCENT  for proportional representation, edging out the LDP (34.4 
PERCENT  for electoral districts, 34.3 PERCENT  for proportional 
representation). 
 
Respondents were further asked when they thought the House of 
Representatives should be dissolved for a general election. To this 
question, a total of over 60 PERCENT  called for an early 
dissolution of the lower chamber, broken down into 34.9 PERCENT 
saying "right after a new cabinet's inauguration" and 31.9 PERCENT 
saying "within the year." Asked about the desirable form of 
government, those choosing an "LDP-led" coalition government 
accounted for only 21.1 PERCENT , with the proportion of those 
preferring a "DPJ-led" coalition government was 29.8 PERCENT . 
 
ZUMWALT