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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 TOKYO 002499 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 09/11/08 
 
Index: 
 
Election fever: 
1) Taro Aso grabs lead in LDP's five-way presidential race  (Asahi) 
 
2) Yomiuri survey of LDP lawmakers shows Aso now commanding a 
majority lead  (Yomiuri) 
3) Nikkei survey finds Aso enjoying a majority of supporters among 
local LDP chapter heads  (Nikkei) 
4) Neither candidate Aso nor former defense chief Ishiba wants to 
form "grand alliance" with the DPJ to solve the "twisted Diet" power 
imbalance  (Mainichi) 
5) The five LDP presidential candidates all profess support for 
extending the MSDF refueling mission in the Indian Ocean  (Nikkei) 
6) Opposition parties sharply criticize the LDP presidential race, 
predicting it signifies "the beginning of the end of the LDP" 
(Sankei) 
7) Opposition camp ridicules the LDP presidential race as "just like 
a festival show"  (Yomiuri) 
 
Economic agenda: 
8) Aso wants to pass supplementary budget during the upcoming 
extraordinary Diet session, raising doubts about timing of Diet 
dissolution  (Tokyo Shimbun) 
9) Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura says the supplementary budget 
will be submitted to the Diet on Sept. 29  (Yomiuri) 
 
10) Departure of ASDF from Iraq transport duty to start late this 
year, when the authorizing UN resolution expires  (Yomiuri) 
 
11) Rumors that Kim Jong Il is seriously ill spark more rumors that 
military now in charge, raising nuclear concerns; Two commentators 
assess the DPRK situation  (Yomiuri) 
 
Articles: 
 
1) Aso gains upper hand in LDP presidential race 
 
ASAHI (Top Play) (Slightly abridged) 
September 11, 2008 
 
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) yesterday officially 
kicked off the campaign for its Sept. 22 presidential election. The 
LDP has given a total of 141 votes to its prefectural chapters -- 
three votes to each prefectural chapter. The Asahi Shimbun has found 
that Secretary General Taro Aso has the advantage in the local 
chapters. As he has gained support from the 386 LDP lawmakers, if 
this trend continues, the possibility is strong that he will win a 
majority in the first casting of votes. 
 
Besides Aso, former policy chief Nobuteru Ishihara, 51, former 
Defense Minister Yuriko Koike, 56, former Defense Minister Shigeru 
Ishiba, 51, and Economic and Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano, 70, are 
running in the LDP leadership race. 
 
The 47 prefectural chapters will decide for whom they will vote 
based on the results of voting by rank and file party members. When 
Asahi asked local chapters' senior members about their predictions, 
30 chapters mentioned the names of candidates who they assumed would 
win the election. Of the 30 prefectures, 29, excluding Tottori, 
where Ishiba comes from, were expected to vote for Aso. 
 
 
TOKYO 00002499  002 OF 008 
 
 
Ibaraki, Saitama, Chiba, Kanagawa, Niigata, Yamaguchi and Fukuoka 
have decided to give all three votes to a candidate who garners the 
largest number of votes from rank and party members. The outlook is 
therefore that all votes that these prefectures have will go to 
Aso. 
 
Fukushima and Miyazaki, which have adopted a system under which the 
three votes are allotted to candidates in proportion to the number 
of votes they receive from rank and file party members, said that 
they would vote for Aso. In addition to these two prefectures, 
Akita, Tochigi, Ishikawa, Yamanashi, Shizuoka, Mie, Osaka, Hyogo, 
Tokushima, Saga, and Okinawa said that Aso would gain two or three 
votes. 
 
Asked why they predict Aso will have the advantage, a senior 
Fukushima chapter member said: "He has dispatched a clear message 
that economic measures are important since he knows local economies 
face predicaments." A senior Ishikawa chapter member said: "He is 
giving consideration in economic policy measures to local areas. He 
can be relied on to lead the LDP into the next Lower House 
election." They appreciated Aso's high-profile and his aggressive 
fiscal disbursement plan. 
 
Tottori said that it would give three votes to Ishiba. Tokushima, 
too, mentioned his name. Hyogo and Okinawa said that the possibility 
was high that their votes would go to Koike. Hyogo is Koike's former 
electoral turf. Koike is popular in Okinawa, since she once served 
as minister in charge of Okinawa affairs. However, four candidates, 
excluding Aso, have not gained support, so far. 
 
Meanwhile, 17 prefectural chapters said they had no idea or 
refrained from answering, in order to avoid any impact on the 
voting. There is a possibility that the situation will change during 
the campaigning. 
 
Yesterday, 125 lawmakers from all 8 LDP factions attended a ceremony 
to start Aso's campaign for the race. About 20 members took part in 
four other candidates' ceremonies. Following former Prime Minister 
Yoshiro Mori, a supreme advisor to the Machimura faction, the 
largest in the party, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe yesterday 
revealed his intention to back Aso. The Ibuki faction, the 
membership of 28, and the Nikai faction, which has 16 members, have 
already announced their support for Aso. Masahiko Koumura, who heads 
a 15-member faction, yesterday clarified his support for Aso. 
 
2) More than half of LDP lawmakers backing Aso 
 
YOMIURI (Top play) (Abridged) 
September 11, 2008 
 
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has now kicked off its 
presidential election with voting and vote counting set for Sept. 
¶22. LDP Secretary General Taro Aso, 67, and four other LDP lawmakers 
filed their candidacies yesterday and opened their 12-day campaign 
battle. The LDP and its coalition partner, the New Komeito, are 
coordinating to dissolve the House of Representatives in early 
October, so the LDP race will be an election to pick an 'election 
campaigning face' for a showdown with Democratic Party of Japan 
(Minshuto) President Ozawa in the next general election for the 
House of Representatives. The LDP has a total of 386 lawmakers in 
the Diet's lower and upper chambers. Aso is gaining more support 
among them, and he is now certain to secure 197 votes, more than 
 
TOKYO 00002499  003 OF 008 
 
 
half of their votes. Meanwhile, the LDP's local chapters, each of 
which has a balloting slot of three votes, have a total of 141 
votes. The five candidates are now trying desperately to lock on the 
local votes. 
 
The five candidates running in the LDP presidential race are Aso, 
former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike, 56, from the Machimura 
faction, Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano, 70, 
unaffiliated with any faction, former LDP Policy Research Council 
Chairman Nobuteru Ishihara, 51, from the Yamasaki faction, and 
former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, 51, from the Tsushima 
faction. The LDP will hold a meeting of its lawmakers from both 
houses on Sept. 22. On that occasion, the LDP's 386 lawmakers and 
three representatives from each of the LDP's prefectural federations 
will cast their votes to elect the new LDP president. 
 
The Yomiuri Shimbun looked into trends in the voting attitudes of 
LDP Diet members. As of yesterday evening, Aso was backed by 197 
persons (51 PERCENT ), standing above all others. Yosano was backed 
by 34 persons (9 PERCENT ), Koike-29 persons (8 PERCENT ), 
Ishihara-24 persons (6 PERCENT ), and Ishiba-24 persons (6 PERCENT 
). About 20 PERCENT  of the LDP's lawmakers have yet to clarify 
their attitudes. 
 
Aso has gained a wider base of support in all eight LDP factions. He 
is now certain to get support from his own 20-member faction and 
16-member Nikai faction. In addition, he has support from more than 
half of the 88-member Machimura faction, which is the largest of all 
factions in the LDP, and has support from the greater part of the 
28-member Ibuki faction and the 15-member Koumura faction. More than 
20 persons in each of the Tsushima faction, which has 69 members for 
voting, and the 62-member Koga faction have also clarified their 
support for Aso. 
 
3) More than half of LDP's prefectural leaders backing Aso 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Abridged) 
September 11, 2008 
 
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun conducted a questionnaire survey of 
prefectural-level executive officers of the ruling Liberal 
Democratic Party over the now-announced LDP presidential election, 
which is set for Sept. 22. In the survey, they were asked to pick 
the most desirable candidate for the LDP presidency. In response, 
executives from 26 of the LDP's 47 prefectural federations chose LDP 
Secretary General Taro Aso. They are apparently pinning their hopes 
on Aso for his advocacy of economic pump-priming measures. 
Meanwhile, the House of Representatives is expected to be dissolved 
soon for a general election. With an eye on this potential snap 
election, many of the LDP's local executives also want their local 
economies to be boosted. This issue will likely be a point of 
contention in the LDP race. 
 
Among those supporting Aso, "his policies are good" was the most 
common reason. This answer came from 18 LDP prefectural 
federations-or about 70 PERCENT  of those that support Aso. Among 
other reasons, "he has national popularity" and "he has leadership 
ability" were given by 12 LDP prefectural federations. 
 
Aso has been pushing for a comprehensive economic stimulus package. 
In his campaign pledge as well, Aso has advocated implementing 
economic measures and an across-the-board fixed-amount tax break. 
 
TOKYO 00002499  004 OF 008 
 
 
His economy-first standpoint is believed to be a reason for his 
securing so much support from local party leaders. Aso is highly 
popular, so many of them want him to become the next LDP president 
for a potential snap election. 
 
4) LDP presidential race: Aso, Ishiba negative about "grand 
coalition" (with DPJ), while Yosano and others positive 
 
MAINICHI (Page 1) (Excerpts) 
September 11, 2008 
 
The campaign for the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election 
on Sept. 22 kicked off yesterday, with five candidates filing their 
candidacies. In a joint press conference held by the five 
candidates, Secretary General Taro Aso, who is seen as the most 
promising candidate, pointed out that economic policy would be the 
main campaign issue for the next House of Representatives election, 
which is likely to be officially announced on Oct. 28 and take place 
on Nov. 9. State Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy Kaoru 
Yosano said that it was desirable to dissolve the Lower House after 
the supplementary budget bill clears the Diet. Asked about the 
concept of a grand coalition with the Democratic Party of Japan, Aso 
and former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba ruled out the 
possibility, but Yosano, former Policy Research Council Chairman 
Nobuteru Ishihara, and former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike took a 
positive view. 
 
Aso said this about the possibility of forming a grand coalition: 
"It is extremely difficult to realize the idea under the single-seat 
constituency system." Ishiba also flatly rejected it, saying: "Such 
a notion ignores the public will, so it something that is beyond my 
understanding. It is meaningless for parties with different policy 
stances to join hands." 
 
But Yosano said: "The divided Diet situation will remain unchanged 
even after the Lower House election. That should become important 
homework for the LDP." Ishihara stated: "It is fully conceivable as 
a political technique. The next prime minister must prepare the next 
hand of cards, including the possibility of forming a grand 
coalition; otherwise, the current divided situation will never be 
changed." Koike remarked: "I think that a variety of dynamism might 
come out depending on how one party wins and how another loses in 
the next general election. It might be an option for political 
parties with the same policy direction to team up." 
 
5) LDP presidential candidates call for continuation of refueling 
mission 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Abridged) 
September 11, 2008 
 
Five LDP lawmakers running in the party presidential race have 
played up to the New Komeito and the public the need for an early 
enactment of a bill extending the Indian Ocean refueling 
legislation, which is due to expire next January,. At the same time, 
they all failed to propose clear ways to break the impasse in the 
divided Diet 
 
Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba cited foreign and security 
policies as the campaign issues for the next Lower House election. 
Calling himself a defense expert, Ishiba referred not only to the 
extension of the refueling mission but also the enactment of a 
 
TOKYO 00002499  005 OF 008 
 
 
permanent law enabling the country to dispatch the SDF overseas, as 
necessary. 
 
Yuriko Koike highlighted the cost effectiveness of the extension of 
the refueling mission, saying: "A growing threat to the sea lanes 
would push up ship insurance. The cost of nautical shipping 
insurance would become much higher." Kaoru Yosano noted for enacting 
the refueling extension legislation in the next extraordinary Diet 
session: "No matter what, we must convince the New Komeito and ask 
the cooperation of other parties." 
 
Taro Aso indicated that the stage is being set to pull the Air 
Self-Defense Force out of Iraq, adding: "It is unconceivable for 
Japan alone to leave the Indian Ocean." 
 
Nobuteru Ishihara also expressed concern, saying: "(Pulling out of 
the Indian Ocean) would end up sending the message that Japan would 
not join the war on terror on its own circumstances." As for ways to 
break the gridlock in the current Diet, Koike vowed to offer an 
explanation easy to understand, and Aso underlined the need to make 
efforts to win public understanding. 
 
6) Opposition parties criticize LDP presidential race as beginning 
of end of party 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Abridged slightly) 
September 11, 2008 
 
In the wake of the official announcement of the LDP presidential 
race yesterday, opposition parties expressed scathing views about 
the party. 
 
Democratic Party of Japan Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Kenji 
Yamaoka told a group of reporters in the Diet building: "(All the 
candidates are now lined up), and I somehow feel this is the end of 
that party. The fissure in the LDP will deepen. Today is the 
beginning of the end of the LDP." 
 
Japanese Communist Party Chairman Kazuo Shii told the press corps in 
Tokyo: "It is utterly wrong to think that the cheerful (presidential 
campaigning), while turning a blind eye to the people's livelihood, 
would help win national popularity." 
 
Social Democratic Party head Mizuho Fukushima told reporters: "The 
LDP is conducting its presidential race for the sake of the next 
Lower House election. The party is ignoring the people." People's 
New Party Secretary General Kamei also said: "Two consecutive prime 
ministers walked off the job, but (no candidate) has offered an 
apology for it." 
 
7) Opposition parties criticize LDP presidential election 
 
YOMIURI (Page 3) (Full) 
September 11, 2008 
 
Opposition parties yesterday leveled criticism at the ruling Liberal 
Democratic Party's presidential election. 
 
Yukio Hatoyama, secretary general of the Democratic Party of Japan 
(DPJ), told the press corps: 
 
"I haven't heard any comments from them that they are sorry for 
 
TOKYO 00002499  006 OF 008 
 
 
dealing a blow to the national interest by creating a political 
vacuum through their presidential election. They appear to be 
practicing for a general election." 
 
DPJ Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Kenji Yamaoka also said to 
reporters: "It is an entertainment show for the LDP and by the LDP. 
The start of the presidential campaign is also the beginning of the 
end of the LDP. " 
 
Japanese Communist Party Chairman Kazuo Shii pointed out: "All five 
candidates served in the Koizumi cabinet. Whoever wins, there will 
be no bright prospects for Japanese politics." Social Democratic 
Party Chairperson Mizuho Fukushima made a critical comment at a 
press conference: "The LDP is trying to change its surface alone, 
not its contents." 
 
8) Aso: Supplementary budget bill must be enacted in extra Diet 
session 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
September 11, 2008 
 
On a TV program last night, Secretary General Aso indicated his 
determination to have the fiscal 2008 supplementary budget bill to 
finance comprehensive economic measures passed in the upcoming 
extraordinary Diet session. Aso said: "I think the issue must be 
urgently addressed. We must pass the extra budget bill into law." 
 
A supplementary budget bill is voted on in the House of 
Representatives first prior to voting in the House of Councillors. 
If the Lower House is dissolved before the bill is voted on in the 
Upper House, the bill will be scrapped. If the government and the 
ruling camp decide to have the bill clear the upcoming Diet session 
but in the event that the opposition camp delays the vote in the 
Upper House, the bill will be automatically enacted 30 days after it 
clears the Lower House. In such a case, the successor to outgoing 
Prime Minister Fukuda will have to wait until after the dissolution 
of the Lower House for the bill to clear the Diet. 
 
9) Chief cabinet secretary reveals plan to submit extra budget bill 
to Diet on Sept. 29 
 
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) 
September 11, 2008 
 
In a meeting of the Liberal Democratic Party's Machimura faction 
yesterday, Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura indicated that a 
supplementary budget for fiscal 2008 would be submitted to the Diet 
on Sept. 29. He said: "Preparations are steadily going ahead to 
submit the extra budget bill after the new party president is 
elected. I believe we will be able to present it possibly on the 
29th." He also said that a bill amending the New Antiterrorism 
Special Measures Law and bills related to establishment of a 
consumer agency will be adopted at a cabinet meeting on the 19th. 
 
10) ASDF likely to pull out of Iraq within year 
 
YOMIURI (Page 1) (Full) 
September 11, 2008 
 
The Air Self-Defense Force, currently on an airlift mission in Iraq 
to help with its reconstruction, will likely be withdrawn later this 
 
TOKYO 00002499  007 OF 008 
 
 
year, government officials said yesterday. This is partly because a 
United Nations resolution, under which multinational forces are 
operating in Iraq, will expire at the end of this December. In 
addition, U.S. President Bush has announced a plan to reduce 8,000 
U.S. troops in Iraq by early next year. The government is expected 
to announce a pullout plan shortly. 
 
Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Aso attended a joint 
press conference yesterday with other LDP candidates running in the 
LDP's presidential election where he implied that the time to recall 
the ASDF is nearing. "When we take a look at the present situation 
in Iraq, there is a situation being created for the ASDF to be 
withdrawn," Aso said. Meanwhile, a senior Foreign Ministry official 
also said yesterday evening, "This time around, we may now consider 
withdrawing the ASDF." According to government officials, the U.S. 
government has also shown understanding for the ASDF's pullout. 
 
The ASDF mission in Iraq is based on the Iraq Special Measures Law, 
a time-limited law set to run out at the last day of July next year. 
However, the Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto), the largest of 
all political parties in the House of Councillors, is calling for 
the ASDF to be withdrawn. 
 
The government will now focus on backing up the war on terror in 
Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the Diet will soon open an extraordinary 
session, during which the government will do its utmost to amend the 
new Antiterrorism Special Measures Law in order to continue the 
Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling activities in the Indian 
Ocean. 
 
11) U.S. alarmed that North Korean military may be seizing power and 
hardening its stance on nuclear issue 
 
YOMIURI (Page 7) (Excerpts) 
September 11, 2008 
 
Etsunari Kurose, Washington 
 
The rumor of the deterioration of the health of North Korean leader 
Kim Jong Il originated from U.S. authorities raced around the world 
via U.S. media since Sept. 9. The uproar can be said to reflect the 
Bush administration's sense of alarm about the news. The U.S. 
administration is on high alert, deeming that in the event the 
military hardliners seize real power after Kim Jong Il falls from 
power, the North would inevitably promote nuclear armament and 
further harden its confrontational stand against the United States. 
 
Kim's absence unconnected with suspended disablement work 
 
By Hajime Izumi, professor, University of Shizuoka 
 
In view of past cases, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il should have 
attended the 60th anniversary military parade. His absence was 
unexpected. Some kind of unusual event must have occurred. 
 
There is no doubt that there was a good reason for it. Was it an 
illness, injury, or something else? Given the fragmentary 
information, making a decision at this point is difficult. His 
movements have not been reported since mid-August, but there have 
been similar absences in the past. 
 
Pyongyang announced on Aug. 26 that it had suspended the nuclear 
 
TOKYO 00002499  008 OF 008 
 
 
disablement work that came out of the six-party agreement. It is a 
stretch to link this to Kim being seriously ill and conclude that 
was why the North has taken extreme action. This is North Korea's 
usual ploy to apply pressure on the United States and we can expect 
to play that card in the course of negotiations. It is not that the 
North has suddenly changed its attitude. 
 
In any event, the problem is that Kim Jong Il has yet to determine 
his successor. If he is seriously ill and cannot make decisions, as 
was reported, the National Defense Commission, the country's highest 
military leadership organ, would push ahead with the selection. 
 
No turmoil even if Kim Jong Il dies 
 
By Paek Sung Ju, Korea Institute for Defense Analyses 
 
Kim Jong Il's absence from the 60th anniversary parade points to a 
high likelihood of a grave change in his health. 
 
Whether there will be any change to the North's power structure 
depends on the condition of his illness. Is he unable to conduct 
state affairs or is he undergoing treatment temporarily? The 
situation can change significantly. In either case, the question of 
transferring power would take shape. 
 
Even if Kim Jong Il dies, I do not think the North will be thrown 
into turmoil suddenly. In such a case, the North would adopt an 
emergency state management system led by the Korean Workers Party 
Central Committee, not the National Defense Commission. The NDC does 
not have nationwide organizational power, so the country would have 
to maintain the system centering on the KWP that has complete 
networks in society. 
 
The country would hold onto the nuclear programs. Chances are high 
that the military will put forward a sterner position than before 
and there will be change in its stance in talks with the United 
States on the nuclear issue. 
 
To become Kim's successor, a contest is expected between his eldest 
son Jong Nam and his second son Jong Chol. Jong Nam seems to have an 
edge for he is being backed by Chong Song Taek, a party executive 
and the husband of a sister of Kim Jong Il. Some take the view that 
Kim Ok, Kim Jong Il's current wife, will wield influence, but she 
would lose power with the death of her husband. 
 
ZUMWALT