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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 002476 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 09/10/08 
 
Index: 
 
Opinion polls: 
1) Labor Ministry poll shows Japanese society under great stress, 
with 57 PERCENT  rating their lives as "hard" or "distressful" 
(Yomiuri) 
2) Face-to-face Mainichi poll finds 23 PERCENT  of the public 
favoring Taro Aso as an appropriate person to be prime minister, but 
only 7 PERCENT  pick Ichiro Ozawa   (Mainichi) 
3) Mainichi poll: DPJ President Ozawa given low marks by 72 PERCENT 
of the Japanese public  (Mainichi) 
 
Election season: 
4) LDP presidential race officially starts today, with the economy 
as the main campaign issue  (Mainichi) 
5) Yomiuri survey of LDP lawmakers finds 40 PERCENT  planning to 
support Taro Aso in the LDP presidential election  (Yomiuri) 
6) Expecting Diet dissolution in October, the ruling camp lining its 
strategic ducks in a row, even asking the opposition for talks on 
key bills  (Nikkei) 
7) DPJ altering its political strategy in view of the upcoming 
election  (Mainichi) 
 
Policy agenda: 
8) Ruling camp putting off tough policy issues until the next prime 
minister  (Asahi) 
9) Ruling parties agree on contents of bill extending MSDF refueling 
in Indian Ocean  (Asahi) 
 
North Korea problem: 
10) Foreign Minister Koumura makes a strong appeal to North Korea on 
abduction issue to mark that country's 60th anniversary  (Yomiuri) 
11) DPRK at 60th anniversary marked by failed domestic and foreign 
policies, stagnation, hunger, social unrest, and possibly a 
seriously ill dictator  (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
Articles: 
 
1) 57 PERCENT  feel lives are distressful: gov't poll 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
September 10, 2008 
 
Over 57 PERCENT  of the Japanese public feels their lives are hard 
or distressful (kurushii), the Yomiuri Shimbun found from a survey 
of public life conducted in 2007 by the Ministry of Health, Labor 
and Welfare. The percentage has risen since 2000. This time, it hit 
an all-time high since the survey started in 1986. 
 
The survey was conducted in July 2007 of about 36,000 households, 
and answers were obtained from about 24,000 households. Those 
feeling badly off totaled 57.2 PERCENT , broken down into "very 
hard" at 24 PERCENT  and "somewhat hard" at 33.2 PERCENT . "Average" 
accounted for 37.7 PERCENT , with "somewhat easy" at 4.6 PERCENT 
and "very easy" at only 0.5 PERCENT . 
 
The proportion of households feeling badly off was 50.7 PERCENT  in 
¶2000. It continued increasing in the following surveys and reached 
56.3 PERCENT  in 2006. 
 
Annual income per household (in 2006) was less than 4 million yen 
for 44 PERCENT  but averaged 5,668,000 yen. 
 
TOKYO 00002476  002 OF 009 
 
 
 
2) Poll: Aso ranks top at 23 PERCENT  for prime minister, Ozawa at 7 
PERCENT 
 
MAINICHI (Page 1) (Full) 
September 10, 2008 
 
The Mainichi Shimbun conducted a face-to-face public opinion survey 
across the nation on Sept. 5-7, in which respondents were asked who 
they thought would be appropriate for prime minister. There are now 
five candidates running in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's 
presidential election. Among them, LDP Secretary General Taro Aso 
scored 23 PERCENT , followed by former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike 
and former LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Nobuteru Ishihara 
respectively at 4 PERCENT , and Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister 
Kaoru Yosano and former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba respectively 
at 1 PERCENT . 
 
Another question asked respondents to pick a free choice with no 
names given. Among others, former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi 
and Ichiro Ozawa, president of the leading opposition Democratic 
Party of Japan (Minshuto) ranked second to Aso, both marking 7 
PERCENT . 
 
Among LDP supporters, Aso topped all others at 38 PERCENT , with 
Koizumi at 8 PERCENT  and Koike at 5 PERCENT . Aso also ranked top 
among those who support the New Komeito, which is the LDP's 
coalition partner, and among those with no particular party 
affiliation, equally at 23 PERCENT . Ozawa was the best choice at 25 
PERCENT  among DPJ supporters, and Aso ranked second at 17 PERCENT 
. 
 
In the breakdown of public support for political parties, the LDP 
stood at 33 PERCENT , with the DPJ garnering 22 PERCENT . The LDP 
rose 8 percentage points from the last face-to-face poll in 
September last year. The DPJ was up 1 point. The results of previous 
polls and the one taken this time cannot be simply compared due to 
different polling methodologies. However, the LDP and the DPJ were 
both at 24 PERCENT  in a telephone-based poll taken in early 
August. 
 
3) Poll: DPJ's Ozawa unpopular 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
September 10, 2008 
 
Ichiro Ozawa-the incumbent president of the leading opposition 
Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto)-was reelected unopposed 
yesterday for a third term. In a recent poll conducted by the 
Mainichi Shimbun, however, 72 PERCENT  of all respondents answered 
"no" to a question asking if they appreciated Ozawa. "Yes" accounted 
for only 22 PERCENT . The figures are almost the same as the public 
ratings for Prime Minister Fukuda and his cabinet over the past 
year, implying that if the DPJ comes into office after the next 
election for the House of Representatives and Ozawa becomes prime 
minister, he could be troubled with low public ratings as Fukuda 
was. 
 
Noticeably, negative answers accounted for 39 PERCENT  even among 
DPJ supporters. Affirmative answers accounted for 57 PERCENT  and 
outnumbered negative ones. However, the figures show that the public 
ratings for the DPJ and for its leader are not necessarily 
 
TOKYO 00002476  003 OF 009 
 
 
coincident. 
 
4) Official announcement of LDP presidential election today to kick 
off battle for general election, with economic policy as main 
campaign issue 
 
MAINICHI (Top Play) (Full) 
September 10, 2008 
 
The Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election scheduled for 
Sept. 22 will be officially announced today. Since the election is 
seen as a prelude to the next House of Representatives election, 
which is likely to be held on Nov. 9, there may be a move toward 
political realignment. The Democratic Party of Japan, in which 
President Ozawa has won a third term without a formal vote, also has 
already started full-scale preparations for a general election. The 
official announcement of the LDP presidential race will kick off a 
political battle that will last until the Lower House election. 
 
Five candidates will run in the presidential race. The five are 
Secretary General Taro Aso, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, 
former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike, State Minister in charge of 
Economic and Fiscal Policy Kaoru Yosano, and former Policy Research 
Council Chairman Nobuteru Ishihara, who formally announced his 
candidacy yesterday. 
 
The LDP anticipates that the election campaign among the five 
candidates, larger than the largest-ever four in the 2003 election, 
will draw public attention. The candidates will deliver 
street-corner speeches in 17 locations across the nation, with an 
eye also on the Lower House election. 
 
The ruling camp is pushing ahead with coordination to set the prime 
minister's policy speech for the 29th and a representative 
interpellation session for Oct.1-3 in the extraordinary Diet session 
scheduled to open on the 24th. Many people predict that the new 
prime minister, taking advantage of the momentum from the LDP 
presidential election, may decide to dissolve the Lower House after 
the representative interpellation session, but some are calling for 
dissolution just after the prime minister's policy speech. 
 
If the new prime minister takes their calls into consideration, the 
Lower House will be dissolved only 10 days or so after the new 
cabinet is launched, something that is unprecedented. In the past, 
the Lower House was dissolved within 45 days after the first 
Hatoyama cabinet was inaugurated, the fastest ever. The DPJ is 
calling for an early dissolution, but the main opposition party is 
now concerned that an early Lower House election might benefit the 
LDP. 
 
In the presidential race, active debate on economic and fiscal 
policy is expected. Some ruling party members anticipate that as a 
result of such debate, momentum may grow for political realignment. 
The focus of attention is on whether the new prime minister who is 
elected in the LDP presidential race will be designated prime 
minister again after the Lower House election expected to be held 
about two months later. 
 
5) 40 PERCENT  of LDP lawmakers likely to vote for Aso in LDP 
presidential election 
 
YOMIURI (Top Play) (Excerpts) 
 
TOKYO 00002476  004 OF 009 
 
 
September 10, 2009 
 
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will announce today that it will 
hold a presidential election on Sept. 22. This means that the 
official campaign for the LDP presidential race will kick off today. 
A Yomiuri Shimbun survey of LDP lawmakers' voting intentions found 
that more than 40 percent of the lawmakers (386) would likely vote 
for Secretary General Taro Aso. The expectation is that LDP 
presidential candidates -- former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike, 56, 
a Machimura faction member; Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister 
Kaoru Yosano, 79, who does not belong to any faction; former policy 
chief Nobuteru Ishihara, 51, a Yamasaki faction member; and former 
Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, 51, a Tsushima faction member -- 
will actively conduct debate on economic and security policies. 
 
According to the results of the survey conducted by the Yomiuri 
Shimbun, 163 lawmakers or 42 PERCENT  of the LDP Diet members have 
decided as of late last night to vote for Aso. The 163 include: all 
20 Aso faction members; all 16 Nikai faction members; about 70 
PERCENT  of the 28 Ibuki faction members; a majority of the 15 
Koumura faction members; about 40 PERCENT  of the 88 Machimura 
faction members and the 62 Koga faction members; and some members 
from the Tsushima n and the Yamasaki factions. The Tsushima faction 
has 70 members; and the Yamasaki faction, 41. 
 
Less than one percent lawmakers have decided to vote for Koike, 
Ishihara, Ishiba and Yosano. Koike gained support from some 
Machimura faction members and some lawmakers from the policy sturdy 
group called "New Breeze," which is headed by former Secretary 
General Tsutomu Takebe. Ishihara won support from the Yamasaki 
faction and some members from the Koga and Machimura factions. 
Ishiba got support from the Tsushima faction alone. Yosano was 
backed by some members from the Koga and Machimura factions, as well 
as some lawmakers with no factional allegiance. 
 
However, nearly 40 PERCENT  of the LDP lawmakers have yet to decide 
for whom they will vote. 
 
6) Ruling coalition laying groundwork for possible Lower House 
dissolution in October 
 
NKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
September 10, 2008 
 
The ruling parties have begun to take preparatory steps for a 
possible dissolution of the House of Representatives in October. 
Yesterday, a day before the start of the official campaign for the 
Sept. 22 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, the 
ruling coalition held a succession of meetings on bills extending 
Japan's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean and establishing a 
consumer affairs agency. The ruling camp on Sept. 12 will ask the 
opposition bloc to hold policy consultations on such issues as the 
government-drafted economic stimulus package. The aim is to generate 
momentum for the next Lower House election by holding discussions 
with the opposition before the upcoming extraordinary Diet session. 
 
The ruling camp's project team on the refueling extension has 
drafted a bill extending by one year the refueling operation. 
 
The meeting of policy chiefs decided that the ruling parties would 
end internal procedures by Sept. 16 regarding how they would respond 
to the two bills before the cabinet makes a decision on the 19th. 
 
TOKYO 00002476  005 OF 009 
 
 
 
The ruling coalition has predicted that consultations with the main 
opposition party Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will run into 
difficulties. Speculation has been rife that the DPJ may rupture 
talks with the ruling coalition due to the possible early Lower 
House dissolution. 
 
If there is an early dissolution of the Lower House, a political 
vacuum will be unavoidable until the end of the general election. 
The ruling parties have been motivated to strengthen their internal 
ties, as well as to fend off criticism for putting on the 
back-burner a number of issues, by demonstrating their efforts to 
settle key legislation. 
 
7) DPJ alters election strategy 
 
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Excerpts) 
September 10, 2008 
 
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) decided yesterday in a meeting 
of its shadow cabinet to come up with the framework of a manifesto 
(set of campaign pledges) for the next House of Representatives 
election on Sept. 21, when President Ichiro Ozawa is formally 
reelected for his third term. Policy Research Committee Chairman 
Masayuki Naoshima, who had said that the party would formulate a 
manifesto on the 21st or later, stressed yesterday to reporters: 
"Since the situation is imminent, we can't do so after we set our 
basic policy." 
 
The largest opposition party has been also forced to revise the 
results of its survey on the state of electoral districts, which 
become materials to choose candidates. A senior party member said: 
"We have to revise the results of our survey." 
 
Ozawa went around several electoral districts in Tokyo yesterday. He 
visited without advance notice offices of those who have been 
informally picked DPJ candidates. He stayed in each office just for 
10 minutes. 
 
Later in the day, Ozawa told Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama: "I 
want you to hold an executive board meeting, since the election will 
be held soon." 
 
Appearing on an NHK news program last night, Ozawa expressed his 
concern, saying: "It will not be that easy to defeat the LDP in the 
Lower House." 
 
8) Global warming left for next administration 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) 
September 10, 2008 
 
Prime Minister Fukuda attended a meeting of four cabinet ministers 
in charge of policy to combat global warming and reiterated the need 
for the ministries to continue to proactively address his proposal 
to turn Japan into a low-carbon society under the next 
administration. As its test case, the participants confirmed that 
the government will introduce an emissions trading system in October 
on a trial basis. But since there are many difficult problems in 
forming the system, it is unclear whether things will go smoothly. 
 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura stressed in a press conference 
 
TOKYO 00002476  006 OF 009 
 
 
yesterday that the next government will continue efforts to curb 
global warming in accordance with the action program adopted in a 
cabinet meeting under the Fukuda cabinet. Machimura said: "That is 
the government's major policy. No matter who becomes prime minister, 
Japan will continue to fight global warming." 
 
With the aim of playing a leading role in the Hokkaido Toyako 
Summit, Fukuda came up with the trial introduction of emissions 
trading as one of the key items in the Fukuda Vision initiative 
released in June. Although industrial circles were calling for 
caution, Fukuda decided to introduce the system in October and 
instructed relevant government agencies to start preparations. 
 
The Fukuda Vision aims at forming an integrated market that involves 
cap-and-trade, under which a cap is set on greenhouse gas emissions 
from large firms and emissions rights are traded, the Clean 
Development Mechanism (CDM) in the Kyoto Protocol designed for 
industrialized countries to assist developing countries in reducing 
greenhouse gas emissions, and the domestic CDM system to be set up 
by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, under which large 
domestic companies help small businesses cut emissions. 
 
As measures to urge many firms to participate in the cap-and-trade 
system, the government's study team under the Cabinet Secretariat 
has considered: (1) letting companies voluntarily join the system to 
set an emission cap; and (2) setting no penalty even in the case of 
emissions exceeding the upper limit. 
 
However, industrial circles, which are concerned about mandatory 
curbs, remain cautious about introducing the cap-and-trade system in 
attaining the targets set in their voluntary plans, while supporting 
the domestic CDM system, which they think will help companies' 
energy-conservation efforts. The system therefore might not fully 
work. 
 
9) Ruling parties agree to submit MSDF bill 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) 
September 10, 2008 
 
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, the 
New Komeito, held a meeting of their policy chiefs yesterday, in 
which they agreed to present a bill amending the new Antiterrorism 
Special Measures Law to extend the Maritime Self-Defense Force's 
refueling activities in the Indian Ocean for another year. The 
government will endorse the legislation in a cabinet meeting on 
Sept. 16 before Prime Minister Fukuda leaves office and will 
introduce it to the Diet in its forthcoming extraordinary session. 
However, it will be difficult to pass the bill during the 
extraordinary session if Fukuda's successor dissolves the Diet at 
its outset. 
 
The planned legislation extends the antiterror law for one year up 
until Jan. 15, 2009. The MSDF is to continue its current refueling 
activities in the same area as under the current law. The ruling 
coalition will call on the leading opposition Democratic Party of 
Japan (Minshuto) and other opposition parties for policy talks. 
However, the DPJ is unlikely to respond in the run-up to a snap 
election for the House of Representatives. If the bill does not pass 
the Diet within this year, the MSDF will again pull out with the law 
running out. The ruling parties concurred in written form that it is 
"the most effective and realistic possible option at this point" to 
 
TOKYO 00002476  007 OF 009 
 
 
simply extend the law. 
 
10) Foreign Minister Koumura calls on North Korea to implement 
agreement on abduction issue, on 60th anniversary of foundation 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
September 10, 2008 
 
In a press conference yesterday, Foreign Minister Koumura called on 
North Korea to deliver on the promises it made to the international 
community on the abductions, nuclear development, and other issues, 
saying: "We would like to see North Korea play a constructive role 
as a member of the international community." He made this remark on 
the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the foundation of North 
Korea. 
 
As its immediate task, Japan needs to have North Korea to start the 
reinvestigation of the abduction victims as it promised. Japan had 
anticipated that the North would start the reinvestigation by 
Foundation Day on Sept. 9, but North Korea has decided to postpone 
it, taking a wait-and-see attitude toward the next Japanese 
administration would take. 
 
Koumura expressed eagerness to forge ahead with negotiations on the 
abduction and other issues pending between Japan and North Korea, 
saying: "If Japan-North Korea relations move forward, our nation and 
the international community will welcome it." He also indicated that 
Japan would decide to partially remove or ease sanctions if North 
Korea implements the reinvestigation, remarking: "Our side will 
implement what it promised." 
 
North Korea in August suspended work to disable its Yongbyon reactor 
in violation of an agreement reached in the six-party talks. The 
nation has indicated it will start reassembling the reactor. Foreign 
Ministry Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau Director General Akitaka 
Saiki said: "North Korea's move is a strategic one (to draw out 
concessions from the international community). It would not be wise 
to overreact." He is willing to move bilateral pending issues 
forward, separating them from the response to the nuclear issue. 
 
Kim Jong Il was absent from the 60th anniversary ceremony. Regarding 
his health condition, a senior Foreign Ministry official indicated 
the ministry will carefully collect information, saying: "Although 
there are rumors that he is ill, we have not heard anything about 
it." 
 
11) North Korea marks 60th anniversary; Country reaches dead end 
domestically and diplomatically 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 3) (Abridged slightly) 
September 10, 2008 
 
Eiji Tsukiyama, Kaname Fukuda, Seoul 
 
North Korea marked the 60th anniversary of the country's founding on 
Sept. 9.  In the face of food shortages and other adversities, the 
country has been maintaining a peculiar system by using the "nuclear 
card" on the diplomatic front, while advocating "military-first 
politics" and projecting the image of being a powerful nation. But 
with the United States having decided to postpone its plan to delist 
the North as a state sponsor of terrorism, Pyongyang recently seems 
to have reached an impasse on the diplomatic front. With reports of 
 
TOKYO 00002476  008 OF 009 
 
 
the ill health of DPRK leader Kim Jong Il, speculation about the 
selection of his successor may rapidly become a reality. 
 
According to Korean Central Television, tens of thousands of people 
filled the Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang during the massive parade 
of the people's army that took place on Sept. 9 to commemorate the 
60th anniversary of the country's founding, showcasing the nation's 
rock-solid solidarity both domestically and internationally. 
 
General Secretary Kim Jong Il had always observed such parades in 
the past, but he was not there this year. 
 
In sharp contrast to such gaudy commemorative events, the 
environment surrounding North Korea is severe. The World Food 
Program (WFP) has pointed out the possibility that 5 million to 6 
million people might starve in the worst food crisis since the late 
1990s. 
 
The Bank of Korea's statistics also show that the North marked 
negative economic growth in 2007 for the second consecutive year. 
The North's economy is now 36 times smaller than that of South 
Korea. 
 
In addition to domestic affairs, the country has reached a dead end 
on the diplomatic front, as well. The country failed to convince the 
United States to remove it from the U.S. terrorist blacklist as 
planned, and Japan's pledge to lift its economic sanctions on the 
North conditioned on its reinvestigation into the fate of the 
Japanese abductees has slipped away, because of Prime Minister Yasuo 
Fukuda's decision to step down. The South-North dialogue between 
Seoul and Pyongyang also remains suspended. 
 
In January, three newspapers, including the Nodong Sinmun, played up 
the significance of the 60th anniversary with their joint New Year 
editorial noting, "Let the anniversary shine as the event 
commemorating the historic year." But the Nodong Sinmun's Sept. 1 
editorial alluded to the harsh reality, noting, "Due to the warlike 
conditions and circumstances, it is extremely difficult to brighten 
the 60th anniversary as the victor's grand celebration." 
 
The denuclearization process has also stalled due to the North's 
attempt to restart the Yongbyon nuclear facility. 
 
A Six-Party Talks source indicated that there is little hope for 
progress for the time being, saying: "Now that the United States has 
put off delisting the North as a state sponsor of terrorism, 
Pyongyang might have decided to hold talks on the denuclearization 
issue with the next U.S. administration." 
 
North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has set the goal of opening the door 
to making the country a powerful nation in 2012, the centennial of 
the birth of his late father, Kim Il Sung. A powerful nation means 
setting the military as a pillar of revolution and advancing 
economic construction with its power, according to the Nodong 
Sinmun. 
 
But the path to economic reconstruction seems steep. China, the 
North's major supporters, is moving closer to South Korea as well. 
Kim Hyon Jun of the North Korean affairs office of the Korean 
Institute for National Unification, a think tank affiliated with the 
South Korean government, pointed out difficulty, saying: "In order 
to become an economically powerful country, relations with the 
 
TOKYO 00002476  009 OF 009 
 
 
United States, Japan, and South Korea must be improved." 
 
Many experts think that the current regime would last until 2012 
unless there are special problems. But according to South Korean 
intelligence authorities, Kim Jong Il had a heart bypass in May 
¶2007. Rumor has it that he is suffering from diabetes, as well. 
Whenever the North Korean leader, now 66, fails to show up at public 
events for a long period of time, a rumor circulates that he is 
suffering from ill health. 
 
Kim Jong Il's three sons -- Jong Nam, Jong Chol, and Jong Un -- are 
regarded as potential successors to the North Korean leader. 
Although an expert indicated that the selection of his successor can 
wait, Kim Jong Il's health and his successor issues are drawing much 
attention due to his failure to attend the 60th anniversary event. 
 
ZUMWALT