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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 002451 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 09/08/08 
 
Index: 
 
Election time: 
1) Likelihood growing of Diet dissolution at the beginning of the 
upcoming extraordinary session of the Diet  (Asahi) 
2) Lower House election looking likely for Nov. 9, with announcement 
on Oct. 28  (Mainichi) 
3) Candidates for LDP presidency debate: Taro Aso promises 3 years 
of fiscal stimulation, Kaoru Yosano seeks to use consumption tax as 
social welfare tax  (Yomiuri) 
4) Yuriko Koike to declare her candidacy for LDP president today 
(Nikkei) 
5) Time for New Komeito Representative Ota to be reelected on the 
23rd  (Nikkei) 
6) Ichiro Ozawa to declare candidacy for reelection as DPJ president 
today  (Sankei) 
7) DPJ's Naoto Kan lays out party's manifesto centered on "two 
revolution and three reforms"  (Tokyo Shimbun) 
8) DPJ's Hatoyama says party will boycott all Diet deliberations on 
the supplementary budget bill  (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
North Korea problem: 
9) New allegation of still another abduction of a Japanese citizen 
by North Korean agents, this time only 10 years ago  (Sankei) 
10) Resolving abduction issues becoming even more remote with North 
Korea's postponement of reinvestigation  (Yomiuri) 
 
11) Declassified U.S. State Dept. documents from 1960s reveal U.S. 
side treated low-level releases of nuclear-sub water visiting Japan 
as "necessary"  (Akahata) 
 
12) Japan Business Federation (Keidanren) will tolerate 
environmental tax as long as it is not a new tax but redirected 
money from road tax revenues  (Asahi) 
 
Articles: 
 
1) Lower House to be dissolved at outset of extraordinary Diet 
session; general election likely in early November 
 
ASAHI (Top Play) (Excerpts) 
September 8, 2008 
 
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner New 
Komeito have launched coordination with the possibility of electing 
a new prime minister in the upcoming extraordinary Diet session, 
planned to be convened on Sept. 24, and of dissolving the House of 
Representatives immediately after a new cabinet is inaugurated. 
Since the ruling parties are now considering holding a Lower House 
election after the new prime minister's policy speech and 
questioning sessions by party representatives, the Lower House will 
be dissolved in effect at the outset of the extraordinary Diet 
session. The most likely option is that the Lower House will be 
dissolved in late September or early October and that a general 
election will be held on Nov. 2 or 9. 
 
The prevailing view in the ruling coalition soon after Prime 
Minister Yasuo Fukuda's announcement of his resignation was that the 
Lower House should be dissolved to call a snap election after 
adopting a supplementary budget for fiscal 2008, which includes a 
package of economic stimulus measures. Assuming, however, that the 
new cabinet's support rate will rise, since the LDP's approval rate 
 
TOKYO 00002451  002 OF 009 
 
 
is now on the increase in various media polls with all eyes fixed on 
its presidential election, in which more than five lawmakers have 
announced their intention to run, the view has gained ground in the 
ruling camp that it would be better to hold the general election 
soon after the new cabinet is inaugurated. 
 
Although many in the New Komeito, which places importance on 
implementing economic measures, hope that the Lower House will be 
dissolved after the supplementary budget is adopted, the party is 
expected to accept the LDP's idea, as it has called for an early 
Lower House dissolution. 
 
LDP Election Strategy Council Chairman Makoto Koga on an NHK TV 
program yesterday said that the Lower House should be dissolved 
after the new prime minister's policy speech and questioning 
sessions by party representatives. He said: "I think the best 
schedule would be if we can face a general election after making the 
best of the LDP leadership race." 
 
Asked about his view on the voting date for the general election, 
Koba said: "I think October would make the schedule rather tight." 
He indicated that the election would be held in early November or 
later. 
 
Another senior LDP member admitted that the LDP and New Komeito were 
discussing the matter, saying 
 
"If we deliberate on the supplementary budget, the momentum of the 
presidential race will come to a stop. It would be better for us to 
dissolve the Lower House at the outset of the extraordinary Diet 
session." 
 
2) Lower House election likely to be held on Nov. 9 
 
MAINICHI (Page 1) (Excerpts) 
Sept. 8, 2008 
 
A Lower House election will likely be held on Nov. 9, with the 
campaign for the race kicking off on Oct. 28, several senior ruling 
coalition members revealed yesterday. The ruling parties plan to 
convene the next extraordinary Diet session on Sept. 24. The outlook 
is therefore that the new prime minister will dissolve the Lower 
House in early October, after the questioning sessions by party 
representatives following the prime minister's policy speech at the 
extraordinary Diet session. The ruling coalition has judged it 
better to hold the general election soon after the LDP leadership 
race, on which all eyes are fixed. 
 
The ruling camp is now carrying out coordination to hold the new 
prime minister's policy speech on Sept. 29 and each party's 
representative interpellations at both chambers of the Diet on Oct. 
1-3. 
 
Although the New Komeito, the LDP's junior coalition partner, had 
called for a Lower House dissolution later this year or early next 
year, many in the LDP wanted to avoid an early dissolution due to 
the cabinet low support rating. However, many LDP lawmakers have now 
shifted their stand as the LDP presidential race has actually begun 
following Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's sudden announcement of his 
resignation. A senior LDP member yesterday said: 
 
"Now matter who becomes prime minister, there will be no choice. 
 
TOKYO 00002451  003 OF 009 
 
 
There is no prospect for getting approval of a supplementary budget 
bill from the opposition. So, the new prime minister will have no 
other choice but to dissolve the Lower House." 
 
The view accepting the idea of holding the general election on Nov. 
9 is now gaining ground in the New Komeito, which has stressed the 
need for enacting the supplementary budget bill as their effort to 
appeal to the public, with the Lower House election in mind. A 
senior New Komeito member said: "Since more than one month is needed 
to enact the supplementary budget, we may loose the LDP election's 
bounce." 
 
3) In LDP presidential race, Aso to propose increasing government 
spending over next three years, while Yosano to pledge to allocate 
consumption tax revenues for social security purposes 
 
YOMIURI (Page 1) (Excerpts) 
September 8, 2008 
 
Secretary General Taro Aso and State Minister for Economic and 
Fiscal Policy Kaoru Yosano will run in the Liberal Democratic Party 
presidential election (official announcement on Sept. 10 and 
election on the 22nd). Aso is willing to aggressively increase 
government spending over the next three years to buoy up the 
economy, according to his blueprint for the leadership of the party 
revealed yesterday. Meanwhile, Yosano is expected to maintain the 
current government policy of fiscal restraint in his blueprint. 
Yosano intends to pledge to allocate consumption tax revenues for 
social security programs and to tackle the drastic reform of the tax 
system, including the consumption tax, over the next three years, 
showing a quite different stance from Aso in terms of fiscal 
management. 
 
Aso is expected to announce his campaign manifesto, titled "Japan's 
potential strength - Creating a strong and cheerful Japan," 
tomorrow. He says in his manifesto: "I will take measures to boost 
the economy through tax cuts and regulatory reforms," apparent with 
an eye on improving the preferential tax system for stock swaps, in 
addition to implementing a comprehensive economic package compiled 
by the government and the ruling camp. Aso also notes: "I will 
flexibly respond to the situation while maintaining the fiscal 
reconstruction policy." This remark is to demonstrate his view that 
the government's fiscal reconstruction goal of turning the primary 
balance into the black in fiscal 2011 should be delayed later. On 
the pension system, Aso does not specify how the consumption tax 
should be treated, just saying: "I will promote national debate in 
order to stably secure fiscal resources." 
 
Yosano will announce his manifesto today. He intends to address the 
task of allocating consumption tax revenues solely for social 
security programs, in line with reviewing the income tax, the 
corporate tax, and other issues, over the next three years. In his 
blueprint, he notes he will submit a bill on a bold medium-term tax 
reform program to the coming extraordinary Diet session. 
 
4) Koike to announce candidacy today for LDP presidency; Tanahashi, 
Yamamoto searching for ways to join efforts 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Excerpts) 
September 8, 2008 
 
Former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike has decided to officially 
 
TOKYO 00002451  004 OF 009 
 
 
announce her candidacy for the Liberal Democratic Party presidency 
to determine the successor to Prime Minister Yasuko Fukuda. There 
are no prospects for former Science and Technology Policy Minister 
Yasufumi Tanahashi and House of Councillors member Ichita Yamamoto 
to secure the necessary signatures of 20 party lawmakers. Given the 
situation, the two lawmakers' camps are apparently searching for a 
way to united behind a single candidate. 
 
The race is likely to include at least five candidates, including 
Secretary General Taro Aso, Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister 
Kaoru Yosano, and former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba. 
 
Koike told reporters last evening in Tokyo: "I have secured the 
signatures of 20 lawmakers, so I would like to announce my candidacy 
formally in a press conference on the 8th." 
 
Former Policy Research Council Chairman Nobuteru Ishihara indicated 
in a TV-Asahi program yesterday morning that he would include in his 
campaign pledges a plan to reduce the numbers of Diet seats to 300 
in the Lower House and 100 in the Upper House. He said: "A major tax 
hike would be necessary unless we continue our efforts to cut 
spending. It is necessary for us to make efforts to reduce the 
number of Diet seats." 
 
After the Fuji-TV program yesterday morning, Tanahashi informally 
asked Yamamoto about the two joining their efforts. Yamamoto told 
reporters around noon yesterday: "Two young reformers are eager to 
run in the race, but coming up with a single candidate is not easy. 
I would like to consult (with Mr. Tanahashi)." Tanahashi and 
Yamamoto appear to have continued discussing the matter in Tokyo 
last night. 
 
5) New Komeito to reelect Ota as its representative on Sept. 23 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Excerpts) 
September 8, 2008 
 
The New Komeito is expected to reelect Akihiro Ota as its chief 
representative in its party convention on Sept. 23. The party's 
upbeat mood comes from Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers' need for 
the organized votes of Soka Gakkai, a lay Buddhist organization 
serving as the New Komeito's largest support base, in the next Lower 
House election, which is expected to be an uphill battle for the 
LDP. 
 
In early August, before the latest cabinet shuffle, LDP executives 
came up with a shocking projection based on their own data: the LDP 
would not be able to garner 100 seats in the next Lower House 
election without the support of the New Komeito and Soka Gakkai. 
 
The LDP suffered a crushing defeat in the Upper House election last 
summer under then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who had succeeded 
Junichiro Koizumi. The LDP's vote-gathering capability has visibly 
declined due to postal privatization and a drop in public works 
projects. 
 
In last year's Upper House election, the New Komeito garnered 7.77 
million votes in the proportional representation portion. Simply 
dividing this figure by the 300 single-seat constituencies, this 
meant that approximately 26,000 people voted for the New Komeito in 
each electoral district. The figure carries great significance for 
candidates running in hard-fought single-seat constituencies. 
 
TOKYO 00002451  005 OF 009 
 
 
 
"If the LDP does not unseat the prime minister, we will pull the 
wires," a veteran New Komeito lawmaker said two months before Prime 
Minister Yasuo Fukuda announced his resignation. The New Komeito 
even threatened the LDP with an end to the coalition arrangement in 
forcing the party to include a flat-sum tax cut in an economic 
stimulus package. The fixed-sum tax cut focused on New Komeito 
supporters brings to mind the old regional promotion tickets. The 
LDP leadership was reportedly steamrolled by the New Komeito despite 
the prime minister's order not to be at the beck and call of its 
junior partner. 
 
6) Ichiro Ozawa to win today in effect DPJ presidential election for 
third term 
 
SANKEI (Page 3) (Excerpts) 
September 8, 2008 
 
The main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will announce 
today its presidential election, which will be held following the 
expiration of the term of President Ichiro Ozawa. It is certain that 
Ozawa will be reelected for his third term since no other candidates 
are running in the race. The DPJ will officially reelect Ozawa in 
its extraordinary convention on Sept. 21. The term of the LDP 
presidency is two years. 
 
Ozawa stressed in a meeting of the party's Lower House members held 
yesterday in Utsunomiya City: 
 
"I formed the government of Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa a dozen 
or so years ago after leaving the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), 
but the government existed for a short period. I feel responsibility 
for that. So I am now determined to form a government for the people 
with your support." 
 
Ozawa expressed his resolve to win the next Lower House election in 
order to create a government-led by the DPJ. 
 
7) DPJ's Kan unveils two revolutions, three reforms ahead of Lower 
House election 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
September 8, 2008 
 
Democratic Party of Japan Deputy President, appearing on an NHK news 
program yesterday, revealed a plan to draft the party's manifesto 
centering on two revolutions and three reforms for the next Lower 
House election. 
 
As the two revolutions, Kan cited: (1) shifting the budget and 
authority to local governments by abolishing the central agencies' 
local bodies, such as the Land, Infrastructure and Transport 
Ministry' regional development bureau; and (2) reducing the 
bureaucracy's influence on the decision-making process to bring 
greater transparency to it. 
 
As to the three reforms, he reiterated the pledges from the party's 
manifesto used for last year's Upper House election: (1) reform of 
the social security system, including the pension program; (2) an 
income-subsidy system for farmers; and (3) a child-support system 
centering on a 26,000-yen child allowance. 
 
 
TOKYO 00002451  006 OF 009 
 
 
8) DPJ's Hatoyama says party will reject Diet deliberations on 
supplementary budget 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
September 8, 2008 
 
Democratic Party of Japan Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama in a 
press conference yesterday in the city of Aomori expressed a 
negative view about discussing the fiscal 2008 supplementary budget 
in the next extraordinary Diet session. He said: "Discussing 
specifics would take a long time. It would be effective and faster 
to carry out the next election at an early date to bring about a 
change of government and implement our party's emergency economic 
stimulus package." 
 
Appearing on a Fuji TV program, Hatoyama also made this comment on 
his party's response to the Diet in the event the next Lower House 
election failed to bring about a change of government: "We will have 
to deal with the situation more flexibly by respecting popular 
will." 
 
9) North Korea suspected of another abduction 
 
SANKEI (Top play) (Abridged) 
September 8, 2008 
 
In 1998, a Japanese woman went missing in Ise, Mie Prefecture. This 
woman is suspected of having been abducted to North Korea. This news 
was brought to the government from sources familiar with relations 
between China and North Korea, government sources revealed 
yesterday. The woman is not on the government's list of abductees or 
missing persons. Meanwhile, investigative authorities have decided 
to reinvestigate her case as a possible abduction. They will ferret 
out whether there was a suspicious ship near the place where she 
went missing. The government's abduction taskforce also has this 
information and is strongly interested in the case. This woman, if 
she is confirmed to have been abducted, will be the 18th abductee. 
 
North Korea's General Secretary Kim Jong Il has denied his country's 
involvement in the abduction of Japanese nationals since 1985. If 
the suspected abduction of this Japanese woman is true, North 
Korea's claim will likely be undermined. 
 
The woman is Noriko Tsujide, who was a 24-year-old resident of Tsu 
City born in Miyazaki Prefecture and an editing reporter for Ise 
Shima, a community magazine published in Ise City. Tsujide went 
missing after leaving her office late at night on Nov. 24, 1998. 
 
Mie prefectural police found out that Tsujide had a telephone call 
from a male acquaintance and met him at a nonlife insurance 
company's parking lot in the city of Ise. The police questioned him. 
This man said, "I met her that night, but I don't know what happened 
to her after she got out of my car." Her case has since been 
unsolved. 
 
Around the spring of this year, however, a government official 
learned from a source connected to China-North Korea relations-who 
is familiar with things in North Korea-that "a person by the name of 
Noriko Tsujide might be in North Korea." On that occasion, that 
Japanese government official never referred to her name, but his 
counterpart gave her full name, according to informed sources. 
 
 
TOKYO 00002451  007 OF 009 
 
 
In the summer of 2006, there was information from a North Korean 
defector claiming that he had seen a person who looks like Tsujide 
in North Korea. A Japanese nongovernmental organization, however, 
found out that it was a different person. 
 
This time around, however, there was information from another 
channel about the possible abduction of Tsujide. Mie prefectural 
police and other authorities will therefore reinvestigate her case. 
 
"It's strange that a person from a third country would know the name 
of a person who is not designated even as an abductee or a missing 
person." With this, a government official expressed concern about 
her case. 
 
10) Settlement of abduction issue now uncertain, with North Korea 
putting off reinvestigation 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
September 6, 2008 
 
North Korea announced a plan to put off the reinvestigation it had 
promised earlier to pin down the whereabouts of the Japanese 
nationals abducted by its agents up until the new administration is 
launched in Japan. Learning of this news, a number of Japanese 
government officials voiced dissatisfaction and frustration 
yesterday. On the Japanese government side, however, there is no 
decisive countermeasure. Uncertainty is again looming over 
development of the abduction issue. 
 
State Minister for the Abduction Issue Nakayama severely criticized 
North Korea's response, telling reporters in Tokyo yesterday: "I 
would like to see the other side take a specific action to return 
the abduction victims to Japan at an early date. North Korea has not 
shown a sincere attitude in addressing the abduction issue." 
 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura also made this remark in a press 
conference yesterday: "It is very regrettable. We will continue to 
work on the North (to launch an early reinvestigation)." 
 
Tokyo has agreed to partially lift or ease sanctions against 
Pyongyang if it starts reinvestigating the issue. 
 
After Prime Minister Fukuda announced his intent to step down, the 
government also continued to urge the North to start the 
reinvestigation, with Foreign Minister Koumura saying: "Japan will 
deliver on its promise." But a government source surmised that North 
Korea has decided to take a wait-and-see attitude for a while, based 
on the view that Japan's foreign policy might significantly change, 
depending on the outcomes of the upcoming Liberal Democratic Party 
presidential race and the next House of Representatives election. 
 
A senior Foreign Ministry official grumbled: "North Korea may not 
take any action at least for the next three weeks" until the new 
prime minister is elected." Vice Foreign Minister Ichita Yamamoto in 
charge of affairs in the Asia-Pacific region, including North Korea, 
resigned from his post yesterday to run in the LDP presidential 
election, but the government has no intention to fill the vacated 
post. 
 
Meanwhile, in reaction to the U.S. government's delay in removing 
the country from its list of terrorism-sponsoring nations, North 
Korea has suspended the process of disabling its main nuclear 
 
TOKYO 00002451  008 OF 009 
 
 
facility in violation of an agreement reached in the six-party 
talks. The North has even indicated a willingness to resume 
operation of its Yongbyon reactor. 
 
The government sees that the North's delay in the pledged 
reinvestigation is not directly linked to its tough posture on the 
nuclear issue, but a government source commented: "It is unable to 
read what action North Korea will take next." 
 
11) Nuclear subs need to discharge radioactive water: U.S. 
documents 
 
AKAHATA (Page 1) (Full) 
September 7, 2008 
 
In November 1964, a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine made a port call 
in Japan for the first time. In those days, Japan negotiated with 
the United States over the nuclear submarine's port call and 
requested that the nuclear submarine not discharge primary cooling 
water or any other radioactive substances in Japan's territorial 
waters. However, the United States obstinately rejected the request. 
This fact became known from declassified U.S. government documents 
discovered at the U.S. National Archives. Shoji Niihara, a scholar 
of international studies, obtained and analyzed these declassified 
documents. 
 
The declassified documents include telegrams between the U.S. 
Embassy in Japan and the U.S. Department of States regarding 
bilateral negotiations over Japan's acceptance of nuclear submarine 
port calls in 1963 and 1964. 
 
According to the documents, the Japanese government requested that 
nuclear submarines not discharge any liquid or solid radioactive 
substances in Japan's territorial waters without prior approval from 
Japan's competent authorities. 
 
The U.S. State Department, however, took the position that the 
United States "regrettably cannot comply with the request, and the 
State Department instructed the U.S. Embassy to answer that "it is 
necessary to discharge a small amount of low-level radioactive 
(cooling) water during the nuclear reactor's primary warm-up." 
 
The Japanese government also asked the U.S. government to provide 
data in order to check the safety of nuclear submarines. However, 
the U.S. government rejected this request on the strength of 
military secrets, maintaining that "all relevant data are 
classified." 
 
Concerning the discharge of radiation from U.S. nuclear-powered 
submarines, it was brought to light early last month that the USS 
Houston, a nuclear-powered submarine of the U.S. Navy, had continued 
to discharge radiation for over two years during its port calls in 
Japan. However, the documents discovered this time indicate that 
U.S. nuclear submarines could have discharged radioactive substances 
in Japanese waters over the past 44 years since the first port call 
of a U.S. nuclear submarine in Japan. This problem is also concerned 
with the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington's 
scheduled deployment to Yokosuka in Kanagawa Prefecture. 
 
12) Keidanren to agree on environmental tax, on condition of using 
road tax revenues for that purpose 
 
 
TOKYO 00002451  009 OF 009 
 
 
ASAHI (Page 1) (Full) 
September 6, 2008 
 
The Japan Business Federation (Nippon Keidanren) has decided to 
accept a plan to introduce an environment tax, although it had 
opposed the idea. The business group will oppose introducing a new 
tax that will lead to a heavier burden on companies but will call 
for transforming such existing taxes as the gasoline tax and the oil 
and coal tax into an environment tax. Keidanren will incorporate 
this policy decision in a set of recommendations on tax reform due 
out soon. 
 
The proposed environment tax is intended to curb emissions of 
environmentally harmful materials by imposing a tax on companies or 
consumers discharging such materials. Revenues from the environment 
tax may be used to finance environment-protection measures in some 
cases. 
 
As a measure to contain global warming, the Environment Ministry has 
called since 2004 for introducing an environment tax on fossil fuel 
such as oil, coal, and natural gas that discharge carbon dioxide. 
 
Keeping the government's policy decision to free up road revenues in 
mind, Keidanren intends to suggest in its recommendation report that 
gasoline and other energy-related taxes be defined as those to be 
imposed in accordance with the level of CO2 emissions and that their 
revenues be used to fund environmental measures. 
 
Although Keidanren had opposed using road tax revenues for other 
purposes than highway construction and maintenance, it made a policy 
switch following the Fukuda cabinet's decision in May to shift road 
tax revenues to the general budget. The business group also kept in 
mind the "action plan to create a low-carbon society" the Fukuda 
cabinet released in July, which specified that the government will 
review the tax system as a whole from the viewpoint of reducing CO2 
emissions. 
 
According to Keidanren, the total amount of tax revenues from 
auto-related and other taxes for both central and local governments 
reaches 10 trillion yen annually. The dominant view is that 
"energy-related taxes are already excessive," as a senior member 
said. 
 
Now that a reduction in the gasoline tax is unlikely, Keidanren 
appears to have concluded that it would be wise to approve 
transforming existing taxes into an environment tax and avoid a new 
environment tax. 
 
ZUMWALT