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DE RUEHTG #0864 2640224
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R 200224Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY TEGUCIGALPA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8670
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RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
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UNCLAS TEGUCIGALPA 000864 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECIN ETRD HO
SUBJECT: HONDURAS REACTION TO PATHWAYS TO PROSPERITY IN THE 
 AMERICAS 
 
REF: A. A. TEGUCIGALPA 793 
     ¶B. B. TEGUCIGALPA 732 
     ¶C. C. TEGUCIGALPA 703 
     ¶D. D. TEGUCIGALPA 500 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Post has discussed preparations for the 
President's PPA initiative with the highest levels of the 
Honduran Government, including in Ambassador's introductory 
call with President Zelaya September 19.  Based on those 
conversations and recent developments here, we do not expect 
Zelaya to grandstand at the September 24 gathering. 
Rather, we think he will either remain quiet or use the 
opportunity to stress that, while pursuing financial 
assistance from Venezuela through ALBA, he remains committed 
to CAFTA-DR.  End Summary. 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) As reftels report, the GOH has been generally 
positive toward the USG initiative now known as PPA from 
its inception, but has not played a particularly active role 
in its formulation.  President Zelaya indicated to us 
as early as late July that he was favorably inclined to 
participate (ref C).  We attribute the relative lack of GOH 
engagement in recent weeks to distractions, such as other 
ongoing trade negotiations and the ALBA controversy, 
combined with an extremely thin bench in the Honduran trade 
bureaucracy. 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Although Zelaya has adopted some fairly extreme and 
illiberal rhetoric over the last two months, largely we 
think to shore up his diminishing domestic support and secure 
Venezuelan and Cuban aid, we do not expect him to 
attempt to spoil the party at the September 24 summit. Zelaya 
has come under harsh attack domestically since 
signing an ALBA accession document August 25, and a recent 
poll showed public opinion was against him by more than 
2-1.  His critics have alleged that his pursuit of closer 
relations with leftist regimes would put in jeopardy 
Honduras's trade and other relations with the United States 
and possibly lead to more deportations of Honduran illegal 
aliens and refusal to extend Temporary Protected Status. 
These attacks became more intense after Zelaya postponed 
the Ambassador's presentation of credentials, originally 
scheduled for September 12, and highlighted ALBA in his 
independence day message September 15. 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) At Zelaya,s request, Embassy issued a press release 
September 17 stating that U.S. immigration policy 
was not affected by Zelaya,s recent diplomatic moves. 
Zelaya went on live TV to trumpet the statement and rebut 
his domestic critics.  He stressed in that TV address that he 
remained committed to CAFTA-DR and to maintaining good 
trade and other relations with the United States. 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) In his meeting with the Ambassador September 19, 
following the Ambassador's presentation of credentials, 
Zelaya said that President Bush had been a good friend of 
Central America and Honduras through his support for CAFTA. 
Zelaya said that he would be a constructive and positive 
participant in the meetings with President Bush and the other 
heads of state in New York. In a brief press conference 
following the meeting, the Ambassador highlighted the 
upcoming 
PPA summit as an indication of continued U.S. commitment to 
economic engagement with the region. 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment: We infer that, his recent leftward tack 
notwithstanding, Zelaya,s current domestic political 
imperative is to deflate his conservative critics by 
demonstrating that he has not damaged Honduran-U.S. 
relations or put the country's commercial or economic 
interests at risk.  Although Zelaya is unpredictable by 
nature, we do not expect him to make trouble at the PPA 
summit.  End Comment. 
LLORENS