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DE RUEHSN #1139/01 2702209
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 262209Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0135
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0349
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 0030

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001139 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ES
SUBJECT: FMLN VP CANDIDATE SANCHEZ CEREN: HARD-LINER'S SOFT 
SELL 
 
Classified By: The Ambassador, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: FMLN VP candidate Salvador Sanchez Ceren told 
us the (left-wing) FMLN would, if they win the March 2009 
elections, reprioritize domestic spending to social needs 
like health and education, would maintain CAFTA-DR, and not 
toy with the dollarized Salvadoran economy at the beginning 
of their term.  (Comment: It is only fair to conclude that an 
FMLN government will want to reconsider dollarization, and 
other important questions, after they feel more entrenched in 
power.  End Comment.)  He said that while the leading 
Salvadoran business group was hostile to Mauricio Funes' 
presidential candidacy, the FMLN had broad acceptance in 
smaller Salvadoran enterprises.  Sanchez Ceren said the large 
number of Salvadorans in the U.S. would be a powerful 
incentive to maintain good bilateral ties, but this would not 
exclude relations with other countries like Cuba or 
Venezuela.  He acknowledged his polarizing role in Salvadoran 
politics and said El Salvador must look to the future to 
address El Salvador's problems, not dwell on conflicts of the 
past.  He welcomed recent poll results suggesting Salvadoran 
voters expect Funes to win the presidential election and 
expressed concern about possible voting irregularities and 
post-election violence.  He acknowledged the controversy over 
his relative power vis-a-vis Funes, but said Funes would 
dominate a "presidentialist" system if he won.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) DCM and PolCouns met with FMLN Vice-Presidential 
candidate (and head of the FMLN's bloc in the Legislative 
Assembly) Salvador Sanchez Ceren, his wife Rosa Margarita 
Villalta de Sanchez, and FMLN Legislative Assembly Deputy 
Hugo Martinez September 24.  Sanchez Ceren said the FMLN 
intended to refocus GOES investment in the country with 
increased emphasis on health, education, and agriculture.  He 
said the government's "Red Solidaria" (welfare program) was 
valuable and should be continued, with a modified focus.  He 
added that there was untapped potential in idle land for 
expansion of the agricultural sector. 
 
¶3. (C) Sanchez Ceren then asserted that both the FMLN and 
presidential candidate Mauricio Funes recognized the need for 
stability in order to keep and attract investment, both 
foreign and domestic.  He said the FMLN would keep the 
CAFTA-DR trade agreement and maintain the U.S. Dollar as El 
Salvador's legal tender.  He said that statements in prior 
campaigns favoring the return of the Colon were no longer 
applicable, since the country had five years of experience 
using the Dollar.  A return to the Colon would not be 
possible in the short term, though he did not rule it out. 
Commenting on recent public disagreements between Funes and 
others in the FMLN (most recently General Coordinator Medardo 
Gonzalez), Sanchez Ceren noted power in the Salvadoran system 
is concentrated in the presidency, thus discounting those 
differences.  Sanchez Ceren said that while the leadership of 
ANEP, the Salvadoran National Association for Private 
Enterprise, was hostile to Funes' campaign, they did not 
represent all Salvadoran business interests.  Sanchez Ceren 
and Martinez said the Funes campaign and the FMLN had ongoing 
contact with many smaller businesses that were not members of 
ANEP and that were supporting the campaign and prepared to 
work with a Funes government. 
 
¶4. (C) Sanchez Ceren noted the large number of Salvadoran 
citizens living in the United States, suggesting this was a 
powerful reason for the FMLN to maintain close relations with 
the United States.  Sanchez Ceren and Martinez welcomed the 
announcement that Temporary Protected Status for Salvadorans 
in the U.S. had been extended.  Sanchez Ceren said FMLN 
foreign policy would be broadly based on principles of good 
relations with other countries (including Cuba and Venezuela) 
and honoring commitments.  Using the country's trade 
agreements and dollarized economy as an example, he said that 
would be the starting point for policy decisions, suggesting 
these agreements will remain in place even if certain aspects 
of CAFTA-DR would need to be renegotiated.  He suggested it 
would be folly to discard the advances El Salvador has made 
since the 1992 peace accords.  Martinez noted that there are 
many who selectively doubt the FMLN's policy assertions, 
acknowledging the certainty of an Iraq pullout, but dismiss 
other promises that cannot be demonized.  "We will keep our 
promises," he said. 
 
¶5. (C) Sanchez Ceren acknowledged he is a polarizing figure 
in Salvadoran politics.  Given the country's history, he 
said, that should not surprise anyone.  He said the solution 
to resolving this polarization was to look forward, not back, 
and for Salvadoran political parties to set aside historical 
battles and address the country's current needs.  Sanchez 
Ceren and Martinez welcomed poll results from the Francisco 
Gavidia University which showed respondents expect Funes to 
win the election over Avila by 16.6 percent (47.8 Funes, 31.2 
Avila, with 19.7 percent either not responding or saying they 
don't know.)  (Note: The question did not address voting 
intentions.  End Note.)  They acknowledged that the poll that 
matters will be held March 15 and expressed worries about 
potential voting fraud and post-election violence in the 
event of a close result.  They welcomed planned monitoring 
missions by the European Union, OAS, and others, and were 
supportive of the NDI-led comprehensive monitoring and quick 
count program. 
 
¶6. (C) Pressed on his views towards Cuba, Sanchez Ceren noted 
that, because of the assistance provided to rebel forces 
during the war, including efforts to secure a peace 
agreement, he had a special appreciation for Cuba and the 
Cuban government.  He said he welcomed recent changes taking 
place in Cuba and said the FMLN would establish relations 
with Havana if it wins the election.  Martinez noted El 
Salvador was the only Central American country without 
bilateral relations with Cuba.  DCM noted that some countries 
 
(e.g. Chile, Brazil, and Panama) had managed to maintain good 
relations with the United States and Havana, but others, such 
as Bolivia, had been unable to strike the right balance. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment: Sanchez Ceren was, as expected, following the 
script regarding positions on the FMLN's continued good 
relations with the U.S. if Funes wins.  In areas where we are 
likely to disagree (e.g., Cuba) his acknowledgment of those 
differences was direct.  We are struck by the irony of 
Sanchez Ceren commenting on the need for tolerance at the end 
of a week where media featured his having ordered summary 
executions of accused infiltrators during the civil war.  It 
is still an open question whether he or Funes calls the FMLN 
shots.  Econ Counselor reported separately that he was with 
other FMLN members the same day who were using the talking 
point regarding the GOES being a "presidentialist" system. 
Finally, Sanchez Ceren saying what the FMLN will not do at 
the beginning of their term, e.g., ending dollarization, 
leads us to conclude that dollarization, and much more, 
probably would be on the table later on. 
GLAZER

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